BOZmail – 30th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MAY 30th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

7-50 CARTMEL (WEDNESDAY EVENING)

This is coming out early Wednesday afternoon (around 3pm) by way of a Brucie bonus for Thursday as I managed to miss something in my study of the Cartmel card last night. I’ve been looking at the Hunter Chase now for past hour and cannot resist the play even though I don’t yet know how our tennis bet got on. Polona Hercog won another close one however so the portents are good. I still intend to publish again Thursday evening with my BOZmail double issue for Friday and Saturday but I may also publish a bet for Thursday on top of this depending on how these two bets go.

The reason for coming in again is simply that I had thought Munsaab was retired and so I managed to skim over his entry last night with it not coming in under Moffatt’s name. No idea who Miss Dean is but wouldn’t be surprised to hear she is connected to Jimmy. I’ll be finding out on the track tonight!

Munsaab is the BOZmail’s ultimate hero for his two wins in 2016 and 2017 at double figure prices and although he hit the doldrums on a high handicap mark thereafter and reached his 13th birthday this year, there is not a horse I ever met who loved rain more than he. Already wet at Cartmel and guess what, just started raining again here with the forecast suggesting it will carry on for next five hours – heavy at times. Munsaab’s victory in the flash floods of May 2017 is the stuff of legend and a couple of The Boz’s best bits of purple prose. The day a racecourse tannoy message advised soaked barbecue lovers to divest themselves of sodden underwear as complimentary pacamacs were handed out by the racecourse. What they forgot to announce however was that the pacamacs were see-through! There was plenty to watch and enjoy whilst racing was suspended! One image of suspended suspenders will stick in my mind till I die!

I digress. But Munsaab obviously hasn’t retired. This could be construed as a drop in class for him to his debut Hunter Chase but if he retains even an inkling of old form, well, 40/1 was 50/1 a moment ago. Somebody has started backing him already. Not just me that hasn’t forgot how he ran here last time he had his ground.

A real LIM punt also as the hot favourite Carter Mackay has stamina to prove and my race read suggests softening ground is also not to his liking. Others including standing dish in this race – Man of Steel – pose a threat to him. I also missed the race last night because there were seven declared but Pimlott has withdrawn Streets of Milan which maybe paves the way for the fav, or maybe not? At 8/11, no kind of value whichever way you call it.

The race has magic written on it for me all of a sudden.There are even two Jack Andrews riding in it!! There may well be a punt brewing so get on Munsaab quick as you can in case he has retained any of that old ability. He’ll be fresh if nothing else and traditionally goes well fresh. Won his first race for us after a 799 day break. All wins come after a break.

Fingers and toes crossed here that the rain continues. My excitement mounts with every extra drop. Good luck to us.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on CARTER McKAY (around 1.72 : no greater than 2.2)

0.1pt BACK on MUNSAAB (around 41.0)

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2nd Round @ Roland Garros

I knew I should have stuck to the tennis as the horses continue to defy me. Not much better on Wednesday either. I’ve had a good look and only found the Novice Chase at Cartmel and a scrubby little sprint at Gowran Park. Still thinking as I write and having a good look at Wednesday’s tennis to see if I can’t find something better there.

In the portfolio, I managed a decent hedge on Anisimova in play and as she has a tough second round v Sabalenka, I’m happy with her at that. Wang and Swiatek due to play each other second round if both get through so various hedge opportunities likely to come up with those two in play if you keep your eye on the ball. Portfolio still looking ok with Azarenka also winning well and with an interesting second round v Osaka coming up. If she wins that, I’ll be adding her.

Now to see how Halep gets on and ready to hedge her v Tomljanovic who may well be no pushover ranked 47 in the world these days.

You will gather that my head is more in the tennis but I’ll force myself on the horses and report back later. I have confirmed today that I will be away on holiday from the end of this week until June 7th and admin are busy organising you a free six days as there will be no BOZmail published between June 2nd and June 7th. I will be posting a double issue before I go away to take in advices for Friday May 31st and the special Derby Day tip for Saturday June 1st.

And so to Wednesday and tennis it is. Busy watching Halep struggle a bit as I write as she went 2-5 down second set but fighting in her customary fashion. The key is the usual clay court dynamic. Tomljanovic is busy mixing things up having been outpowered first set. She is matching the power and has just won the second set with drop shots and much better use of the slide, taking the pace off the ball whenever she can to neutralise Halep’s power game.Also doing that Ostapenko thing of backing herself and hitting a fair share of the lines. Good match. Halep however ain’t lying down at the start of the third. Infamous fighter with her back to the wall.

My choice for match bet on Wednesday is a similar match up. Belinda Bencic is the class and her power play can be sublime. Ostensibly a grass court player however and not far off Sharapova’s famous ‘cow on ice’ analogy on clay. Doesn’t use the slide at all and so always vulnerable to any specialist clay courter who can live with her power. Laura Siegemund at her peak in 2017 – aged 29 years and for much of her career an out of the top 200 player who didn’t do slams – suddenly won Stuttgart on clay beating Halep,Pliskova and Mladenovic in the process. All of those players who also utilize their power game on the surface rather than submit to the slide. Makes them vulnerable on certain days against the trickster who slows the play and takes the power out. Siegemund ended that year with a bad knee injury and missed much of 2018 and it is also fair to say that whenever she has come up against top 20 players in every year except 2016 and 2017 she has been wiped off any court through her inability to field a decent second serve and often her first serve would lose power too. Those issues were addressed in the 2016/17 seasons and she had a defining purple patch that elevated her to 29th ranked in the world. On clay though where she wields that potential. Nowhere else really. Her other negative would be that even with the clay specialism, she has never fared well at Roland Garros – only being high enough ranked and fit enough to play twice before this year and losing first round both times. Her win first round this year was her first ever win at the French Open. An omen perhaps? Because the other positive is that she has played Bencic twice before on the tour, both on clay, and won both. They were in 2013 with Bencic as a 17 year old newcomer to the circuit and she’s a different player now. But still not good or natural on clay. Her Roland Garros record is also poor with defeats outnumbering wins and she has never gone into the tournament at all.

Halep is now 5-0 up against Tomljanovic third set. That’s how the top player v lesser player games can go and Bencic v Siegemund could be similar. Siegemund is a trainee sports psychologist however and she’ll know about the need to get momentum and to stay with the 15th seeded power player. Disrupt her game as much as she can and stay in the rallies. If she does, the upset is very plausible. Bencic can be a down tools player when things aren’t going well.She has been in form and consistent so far in 2019 but all her clay court defeats have come against clay court specialists and she suffered at straight set defeat at her home country Lugano v German Antonio Lottner who was ranked 147 at the time. It can happen. At 1.38 to lay on Betfair as I write, it is a worthwhile play. At the very least, you should get a chance to trade a profit on such a price. The Boz however will take a day off the horses and look for his LIM by tipping a Siegemund win.

Recommendation:

0.55pt LAY on BELINDA BENIC v Laura Siegemund at around 1.38 or better.

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0  

21st:   -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66

22nd:  +0.294 (+0.522) Lay @ 2.4   

23rd:   +0.48 (+1.002) BACK @ 1.96

24th:    -0.215 (+0.787) Lay @ 1.86  

25th:    +0.196(+0.983) Lay @ 2.76

26th:    -0.585 (+0.398) Lay @ 1.97 : BACK @ 3.0

27th:    +0.094(+0.492) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 21.0

28th:     -0.28 (+0.212) Lay @ 1.7

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 107/158 = 67.72% :   BACKS: 27/101 = 26.73%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay – Entered at Worcester (June 1)

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Derby (June 1), King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

PLAYER               PRICE TAKEN HEDGED AT     CURRENT P/L

Simona HALEP1pt LAY@5.6
-4.9
ANISIMOVA0.1pt BACK@120.00.1pt LAY @ 70.0+5.7
QIANG WANG0.1pt BACK @340.0
+34.7
Iga SWIATEK0.1pt BACK @151.0
+15.8
VAN UYTVANCK0.1pt BACK @1000ELIMINATED
Polona HERCOG0.1pt BACK @10000.1pt LAY @310.0+69.6
LauraSIEGEMUND0.1pt BACK @10000.1pt LAY @410.0+59.6
ROF

+0.7
Azarenka (3rd Rd)






Hercog plays last year’s finalist Sloane Stephens next round and that’ll be her test. Not renowned for slaughtering the elite players but Stephens was a surprise finalist in 2018 and remains far from a natural on clay. Plays the consistent power game which is in the groove but I watched her match v Sorribes Tormo today and she wobbled at 6-1 3-0 and found herself 4-5 down second set as the Spaniard suddenly sparked the clay court game. Stephens re -asserted in the tie break for a straight sets win. There is hope there though if Hercog avoids the tightening whilst in the ascendancy that adversely afflicted Sorribes Tormo.

And Hercog has stayed solid in all her games in 2019 so far. Giving of her best. We can ask no more that that.  

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