BOZmail – 30th MAY (part 2)

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MAY 30th 2019 (PART 2)

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY Number 2

2-40 WETHERBY

A second edition for Thursday as promised after two such smashing sporting events to be betting in on Wednesday night.

I did allude to the trade on the tennis as a surefire profit but I had no idea that it would be as good as it has been. If you haven’t been persuaded into this way of betting yet let me publish the example of how it works for me in women’s tennis (and this match as the specific example) and likewise in play in horse racing when you do as the Boz does and seek out the outsider that has a realistic chance of at least being competitive. Both our warriors on Wednesday night did us proud. Neither has won as of yet (Siegemund off for bad light at 4-4 in the third) but both have landed fruity profit in the trading stakes.

Tennis first:

I started pre match with the lay on Bencic at 1.38 (stake 0.55pts as published):

Bencic: -0.209 Siegemund: +0.55

When Siegemund won the first set, I hedged on Bencic at 2.78(stake 0.15pts):

Bencic: +0.058 Siegemund: +0.40

When Siegemund broke for 4-2 second set I took 9.0 on Bencic (stake 0.2pt);

Bencic: +1.658 Siegemund: +0.20

Despite the way Siegemund was playing, clearly with a stronger serve than when I last saw her, you can never discount the wobble in women’s tennis. It is the main reason I recommend the trade way to play – starting with a lay on the vulnerable fav. When Bencic took the second set 6-4, I reverted to my pre game assertion and backed the value on Siegmund (stake 0.4pt at 4.0)

Bencic: +1.258 Siegemund: +1.40

Nice green position but it weren’t over there as Bencic sailed to 4-1 in the third and Siegemund, still playing ok and showing no sign of flagging mentally or physically went 20.0. I took 0.2pt.

Bencic: +1.058 Siegemund: +5.2

Boy was I hollering for Laura now and she responded accordingly! Back at 4-4 playing some super tennis and Bencic doing her worst impression of cow on ice, referee called bad light with the German very much with the ascendant momentum. Bencic still called fav for the shoot out tomorrow, I took 1pt at 1.87and am ready to shout Laura home.

Bencic: +1.928 Siegemund: +4.2

Might have a bit more on Bencic tomorrow as they resume if Laura takes the first game. Keep the bigger plus with Siegemund though true to the original tip.

My play on Munsaab, who also played a cracker, was much simpler. Started as published. 0.35pt LAY on CARTER McKAY @ 1.9 : 0.1pt BACK on MUNSAAB @45.0

Carter: -0.415 Munsaab: +4.4 ROF: +0.25

Genuinely thought Munsaab was going to win most of the way round, he was jumping so well. Just that error two out although the Qatar horse obviously had some class and handled the ground much better than expected. Only cracked toward the end as Munsaab dropped to 3.75. I laid 0.75pt at that.

Carter: +0.335 Munsaab: +2.0625 ROF: +1.00

Another nice green to halt the grimness of May LIM. To celebrate, another small go at Wetherby on Thursday.

I oppose Stoute’s Mokammal despite the absence of Rangali Island. Itizzit comes out on top on my figures and can capitalise on a fav that is very short after his flop LTO.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on MOKAMMAL (around 2.1: No greater than 2.4)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0  

21st:   -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66

22nd:  +0.294 (+0.522) Lay @ 2.4   

23rd:   +0.48 (+1.002) BACK @ 1.96

24th:    -0.215 (+0.787) Lay @ 1.86  

25th:    +0.196(+0.983) Lay @ 2.76

26th:    -0.585 (+0.398) Lay @ 1.97 : BACK @ 3.0

27th:    +0.094(+0.492) Lay @ 2.6 : BACK @ 21.0

28th:     -0.28 (+0.212) Lay @ 1.7

29th:     +0.3284(+0.5404) Lay @ 1.9: BACK @45.0 (traded in running)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 107/158 = 67.72% :   BACKS: 27/101 = 26.73%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay – Entered at Worcester (June 1)

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Derby (June 1), King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

PLAYER               PRICE TAKEN HEDGED AT     CURRENT P/L

Simona HALEP1pt LAY@5.6
-4.9
ANISIMOVA0.1pt BACK@120.00.1pt LAY @ 70.0+5.7
QIANG WANG0.1pt BACK @340.0
+34.7
Iga SWIATEK0.1pt BACK @151.0
+15.8
VAN UYTVANCK0.1pt BACK @1000ELIMINATED
Polona HERCOG0.1pt BACK @10000.1pt LAY @310.0+69.6
LauraSIEGEMUND0.1pt BACK @10000.1pt LAY @410.0+59.6
ROF

+0.7
Azarenka (3rd Rd)






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