BOZmail – 30th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY MARCH 30th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

7-00 SOUTHWELL

Bit late posting as I was trying to get one of these two Southwell night meeting LIM qualifiers as a starter for the Lay Staggered acca and ViviVaki does have potential with the no course form and long period off. Stable also has a second string in the race and it does look like Vivivaki could be set up to get beat. But on form, her Ascot second says she’ll hose it. Only has to handle the surface. Just too many question marks however to be called weapons grade either as a back or a lay. And whilst I was deliberating that, my Stratford 3-05 LIM play suffered some big price shifts as the Skelton horse became fav taking a lot of money. Looks a stable play so don’t want to lay in that now as previous fav is on a whopping drift.

Which leaves me with the other Southwell qualifier where Weld Al Emerat has several negatives in a competitive race but came out as a possible winner on too many of the tests to make him a weapons grade lay.  A lay on price though and thus a value LIM play. Space Bandit has a chance to beat him with Mark Crehan taking off 7lb to offset the weights and very good chance of reversing the LTO defeat over a furlong further. Both course specialists. Hammer Gun also has a real chance at weights with equally impressive times and a way of running that could run down the fav whose stable are on the below 50% horses running to form list. Those types often flag at the finish so Hammer Gun could be set up to go past here at a value price. Is stepping up in class a grade but looks the type to be improving so 7/1 is fair and should be taken small. Both Mister Music and Showboating can have form cases made in what is a very competitive race (and thus also not a weapons grade one).Latter has stable form doubts but former has top apprentice taking weight off and both have form that puts them close to the fav and will expose any chinks in form he shows. Zylan also not out of it.

So not a weapons grade race but a classic competitive LIM with a fav who is under priced at 13/8.

RECOMMENDATION:

0.3pt LAY on WELD EL EMERAT (Around 2.7: not greater than 3.1)

0.15pt BACK on HAMMER GUN

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

23rd:    -0.66 (+7.9285) LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 34.0

24th:    +0.596(+8.5245) LAY @ 2.5 : BACK @ 4.02

25th:    +0.24 (+8.7645) LAY @ 1.99

26th:     +0.09 (+8.8545) LAY @ 4.4 : BACK @ 4.2

27th:     +0.539(+9.3935) LAY @ 1.6

28th:     -0.336 (+9.0575) LAY @ 2.12

29th:     NO PLAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 74/104 = 71.15% :   BACKS: 17/66 = 25.75%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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