BOZmail – 30th MARCH (revised)

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY MARCH 30th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points (temporarily suspended)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

MONDAY play in Crisis Corner

7-15 WILL ROGERS DOWNS (Race 1) -Check times as some have it at 6-15

Found one that is worthy of small play. Our old mate Carlos Esquilin rides the delightfully named Tell Me Boo Boo who takes a drop in class for this and whilst hardly a race you would risk your mortgage on, acts as a bit of LIM cover against a very short priced Tiago’s Song who is up at odds on for some and evens for others.

Either of those and a little bit of odds against worth taking. Very much bargain basement fare and Tiago’s is top rated for what that is worth. On the playing the market principle, you’d look for one against it and I choose the 3 year old Staunch Elaborator who gets a bit of weight and has some scope for improvement if he gets out the stalls ok. Is as high as 25/1 on some lists so watch the market here. I’m only in for a quid so you may have to play cute to get exchange price (back for £3 lay at preferential odds for £2?) or watch the bookmakers sites where it is being priced up. With so little other fare on offer now, this might be race of the day!

Not a race I would consider in normal circs but these are indeed exceptional times and I point you to today’s leading article in the Racing Post suggesting that the BHA are considering coming back on May 1st with Regional Racing at Newmarket with ‘ special small field races ‘. 

It’s like they know we are out here after all!

The third of the Disclosing Secrets articles reproduced below.

Recommendation:

£2 LAY on TIAGO’S SONG

£1 BACK on STAUNCH ELABORATOR

The Boz’s March US & Irish Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

18th:  -£4-10 (-£4-10) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 21.0

19th:   NO BET

20th:  +£2-94 (-£1-16) Lay @ 3.0

21st:   NO BET

22nd:  -£1-75 (-£2-91) Lays @ 2.25 & 10.5

23rd:  +£2-94 (+£0-03) Lay @ 1.79

24th:    -£1-52 (-£1-49) Lay @ 1.76

25th:    IRISH RACING ABANDONED

26th:    NO BET

27th:   +£2-45 (+£0-96) Lay @ 3.15

28th:   NO BET

29th:   +£1-96 (+£2-92) Lay @ 2.9

 Good luck with your bets.

BOZ

***************************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

*******************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93  tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

***********************************************************************************

DISCLOSING SECRETS 

MAKE YOUR OWN MARKETS

The second in the Boz’s series of BEST BETTING PRACTICE articles commissioned by Betfair in 2004 and updated here.

Tip Number Three: KEEP RECORDS AND CREATE YOUR OWN PERSONALLY RELEVANT STATISTICAL DATA

Back in 2004 I illustrated my point with an example from my days as a non league football betting expert. I had noticed the effect goalkeeping – good and bad – had on influencing results in the Conference and began keeping my own goalkeepers league table giving points for matchwinning saves and scoring minus points for clangers, bad psychology and failure to marshall the defence.Weekly highlights of the league were shown regularly on Setanta TV at the time and I was also part of a pools panel collective that attended live games around the country every weekend and so my data quickly became comprehensive and incredibly helpful in pointing me where to match bet and seek out the value. The particular focus narrowed down on to Torquay United who were newly relegated from the football league and played out most of the season in the top five whilst their hapless goalkeeper – Simon Rayner – regularly scored in the bottom six on my league table. Torquay were a good enough side to compensate for his regular ricks against the lesser opposition whilst often struggling to assert at often short odds – especially at home – against the sterner competition. The importance of the factor, and the edge it gave me, was further bolstered when for six games toward the end of the season, the Gulls managed to secure Southampton goalkeeper Michael Poke on loan during which he kept five clean sheets and propelled Torquay into the promotion race. During this spell, Rayner was also farmed out on loan to Boston United in the lower league where he performed ok on that lower level goalkeeping league table.

Sadly for Gulls fans, Rayner was recalled for the run in and the match costing ricks recurred most notably in the play-off semi final against Aldershot when Torquay had been screaming odds on because of the Poke inspired current form and lost to an awful Rayner howler which netted me my best return of the season. Both tipping and gambling wise.

I have religiously executed this tip ever since always aiming for new angles to keep records on in the sports I specialise in and areas where no widely published statistical data is on show. My 2017 example is on the female tennis player Jelena Ostapenko who I first saw in the flesh and on the grass at Edgbaston 2016. She defeated twice Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova in that tournament and as well as the obvious potential she was showing on grass, I was struck by the manner of her victory in three sets where she showed no buckling under pressure when losing the second set in a big Kvitova momentum swing. For such a young player of 19 she had impressive calm and continually backed herself in the critical points going for line shots where lesser players might have retreated into the defence of just making sure the ball stayed in play. Making plenty of those line shots, she defeated Kvitova when the Czech champ had traded in play at 1.2 early in the third set with momentum very much on her side. Ostapenko did it again just after in Doha – again in three sets – and I began tracking the number of matches she won in maximum sets – firstly against the top players and then against anybody as it became a regularly recurring theme. At one point as high as 68% of matches going to third set and tennis traders will know what opportunities for in play arbitrage that affords especially in the disparate ranking match ups that Kvitova v Ostapenko represented at that time. The win odds on Ostapenko were also often terrific value in play with a realistic chance of a win expectation and that continued throughout late 2016 and early 2017 with the three set matches remaining a constant also.

When I wrote for this publication in late May, and whilst the French Open was in progress, that I fancied her at big odds to win Wimbledon I was working on the premise that she had the makings of a grass court specialist allied to being a terrific young potential player with a telltale rapidly increasing ranking. I hadn’t particularly fancied her to win on the clay at Roland Garros going in (but I backed her at Quarter final stage as the burgeoning talent continued to blossom) and it was during this time that I learned about her background as a seven year professional ballroom dancer in her teens. Boy was that a revelation! It explained the uncanny calm in front of big crowds – an aspect that scuppers so many female tennis players young and old who can’t handle it – and the noticeably balletic grace of movement and athleticism. And that self confidence. Backing herself so constantly in the critical points. Hallmark of a professional performer delighting in igniting a crowd with her talents. 

By this point I’d realised she was more than a potential grass court specialist and more the player on any surface megastar we now see her as.But it was still the personally observed and meticulously kept three set statistics that helped me compensate for missing the massive outright odds on her winning the French Open as she did and scored me massive inplay match trading profits at Roland Garros. Her record was thus:

Round of 128 against Chirico (ranked 128) she lost first set 4-6 (and traded on the outrights at 450.0 in play) before rallying to win second and third sets 6-3 6-2

Round of 64 was a straight sets win over Puig (ranked 41) 6-3 6-2

Round of 32 straight sets over Tsurenko (ranked 42) 6-1 6-4

Round of 16 a three set win over Sam Stosur (former finalist ranked 22) 2-6 6-2 6-4

Quarter final a three set win over Caroline Wozniacki (ranked 12) 4-6 6-2 6-2

Semi final a three set win over Bacsinszky (ranked 31) 7-6 3-6 6-3

Final a three set win over Halep (ranked 4) 4-6 6-4 6-3

That’s five three set matches in seven and she lost first set in four of them trading each time at whopping prices in play going in to the second set. A mecca for the inplay trader and a confident expectation for me based on the personal stats I’d been keeping. 

Other stats on Ostapenko you can build in are as follows:

In season 16/17, she scored a 47% hit rate on break points converted and a 52% strike rate on break points saved. Both huge percentages and the mark of her mindset and a goldmine for the inplay trader. She scored 60% on winning return points (higher than Serena!) and served 168 aces (despite not having a devastating power serve) and 359 double faults. A la Sharapova, the second serve weakness didn’t stop her winning a Slam! She’s on the scene now and a lot of the value in the outrights and match betting has gone. The three set prevalence for trading however still holds good.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *