BOZmail – 30th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JUNE 30th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.7978 points (-0.2022 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.121 points (+5.121 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.89 points (-0.11 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.3398 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 11/17 = 64.7%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

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LESS IS MORE: 

1-45 MUSSELBURGH

Monday’s Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on ALPHABETICAL (around 1.5 or preferably lower to be hedged with  preferential odds when they become available)   

Laid @ 1.35 : Hedged 0.225 @ 1.46 : P/L = +0.0245points         

Really was scraping the trading barrel on Monday but look at it as a test of discipline

and if you passed and showed your profit then indeed a trader you can be. If you risked in running you are probably a stone lighter now but also cleared! He looked beat and traded at 2.3 ,3.4 and a wedge at 4.1! I decided against and the usual regrets to deal with as a result!

If you failed to show a profit or weren’t playing then you may agree that it’s time we went back gambling!

One or maybe two more days to go. Wednesday’s jumps card is predictably a bookmaker’s benefit. Won’t be playing in that. It may take a week or so to calm down.

So, a final push to wipe the LIM slate clean in part two of 2020, a year I fancy we ain’t gonna forget!

I take on Annangel in this. Won at 80/1 LTO at Beverley receiving weight off everybody and although that was a decisive win, not a fast time and not much of a field. Has to give weight this time to Sound of Iona and Joshua R who both look a danger on paper whilst Nigel Tinkler’s yard remain in a fairly solid lull – post lockdown.

Jim Goldie the stable I have my eye on at the moment and Sound of Iona my idea of the winner here (paddock watch advised however if you do fancy a back) in a race not to be too dogmatic about once more. Trading day again! Play the price.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on ANNANGEL (around 2.2. Back as low as possible and hedge when preferential odds appear.)

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3655*) Lay @ 1.66 * arithmetic mistake corrected

13th: -0.24     (-0.6055) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8215) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2295) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3195) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

21st: +0.1048 (-1.2147) Lays @ 1.33 & 14.0 :Backs @1.6 & 28.0

22nd: +0.0784 (-1.1363) Lay @ 2.12 : Backs @ 2.4 & 3.15

23rd:  +0.049  (-1.0873) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @ 2.5

24th:  +0.106  (-0.9813) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 3.2

25th: NO BET

26th:  +0.5047 (-0.4766) Lay @ 2.34 : Backs @ 3.2 & 11.0

27th:  +0.0343 (-0.4423) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 2.1

28th:  +0.2156 (-0.2267) Lay @ 2.12 & 2.2 : Backs @ 2.46 & 3.0

29th:  +0.0245 (-0.2022) Lay @ 1.35 : Back @ 1.46

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (July 3) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Jaganory – Entered for Bath (July 2) & Chepstow (July 3)

Waseem Faris

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the Derby (July 4)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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