BOZmail 30th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JULY 30th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 21.027 points (+1.027 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.7153 points (+6.7153 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +6.4283 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.7159 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 32/41 = 78.04%  Backs : 3/16 = 18.75%

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LESS IS MORE: 

12-30 SOUTHWELL

The last NH meet until August 5th so the lockdown muck about and limited fixtures continues and I keep stakes down and caution up for the next week at least whilst also determined to push ahead a bit now – so will be taking LIM back to the flat for the week reserving the right to go trade wherever I’m not convinced I have a strong race read.

Lady Bowes’ defection spoilt yesterday’s LIM a bit but only in the need to get an LIM back winner continues. Lady Bowes apparently failed to eat her breakfast!

No crime greater than that in the horse racing world!

This final NH LIM for a week looks a decent one. We have our to follow horse Lord Condi and the McCain horse he beat last time out Youracert – who gets a hefty weight turnaround for ten lengths and comes from the McCain yard who are now sizzling hotter than chips in a fat fryer after yesterday at Bangor – against Tikkinthebox who William Hill have as a serious shorty again on early tissue. You’ll probably have to lay at bigger than the 11/10 they forecast but anything under 2/1 will be ok as this one has several negatives. On first look his LTO form over Little Stevie was franked by the latter NTO until you see that Wisecracker – the on and off the bridle horse – should have won that and let the form down again at Bangor Wednesday.Little Stevie didn’t thus beat much. Tikkinthebox is a couple of pounds above his winning mark now with the penalty for winning LTO but the key negative for me would be the track. Tikkinthebox is a fast track horse winning at the likes of Newton Abbot and Uttoxeter. Wouldn’t normally touch Southwell with a barge pole. This is a lock down factor that can work in our favour if that price stays as short as 11/10!

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on TIKKINTHEBOX (around 2.2 or as low as you can get under 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on YOURACERT (around 7.0)

Small 0.01pt Reversed Forecast on LORD CONDI & YOURACERT

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

22nd: +0.1715 (+0.676) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @4.6

23rd:  +0.098   (+0.774) Lay @ 2.26

24th:   -0.27     (+0.504) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 5.0

25th:   +0.0882(+0.5922) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 6.6

26th:   +0.147  (+0.7392) Lay @ 2.7

27th:    +0.098 (+0.8272) Lay @ 2.4 : Back at 14.5

28th:    NO BET

29th:    +0.147 (+0.9742) Lay @ 1.68

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Malotru 

English King – Entered for Goodwood (July 30) & Doncaster (Sep 12)

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

TO FOLLOW TRADE HORSE ON WEDNESDAY:

2-45 GOODWOOD – SIGNIFICANTLY @ 4/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 7.4 : Hedged 0.15pt @ 4.4 : P/L = +0.049pts

Went off him when I realised he had a shit draw so slanted the hedge out in favour of defeat. Didn’t run terrible but not top drawer either and he goes off the list now having won us decent moolah with his consistency. I wish him well in his search for a career win. Actually looking to wind the flat to follow list down already. Just keep a few special ones on. Looking to concentrate on the jumps from herein.

TO FOLLOW HORSE ON THURSDAY:

2-45 GOODWOOD – ENGLISH KING @ 5/4 – 0.1pt BACK

No trade on this one. Simple chance to atone for Derby disappointment. Frankie still has the flush of embarrassment on his cheeks. Off the list if he don’t win!!

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden 

Lord Condi – Entered for Southwell (July 30)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

TO FOLLOW TRADE HORSE ON WEDNESDAY:

3-00 BANGOR – FOR PLEASURE @ 4/5 – 0.15pt BACK

Backed @ 2.06 : P/L = +0.147pts

A small moment of concern if you followed me in foregoing the trade here. He slowed things down in front and allowed Roar and the Henderson horse to get within distance but they had to work to do so whilst Harry was taking a canny breather and he pulled away easy again after. Good horse. He comes off the list now whilst they work on his handicap mark but he’ll be back on again in the future. 

You’ll see me doing this foregoing the trade more often now on the jump horses as I get my head round them in the new season. Couple of new ones gone on from watching Bangor including our old mate Samsons Reach who ran a race full of promise. He has won piles for the BOZmail in the past including being part of a monster New Years Eve treble back in 2017. I play hard on the last day of a cycle with plenty of bookmakers money in the pot so prepare yourselves for that if this is your first run on the BOZmail.

I’m stepping up the acquisition of bookmakers money in our pot from herein!!

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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