BOZmail – 30th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 30th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

3-30 PLUMPTON

I’ve had a real wrestle with the narrowing down for Wednesday. A few qualifiers but I haven’t found an angle into any of them and plumped instead for the To Follow race. Ruby Yeats ran well LTO travelling easily and coming nicely into contention before running out of puff. Up in class here so on paper an even harder task over same distance but bottom weight and a 10lb claimer that I like on board and it would seem that Gary Moore is going for the lightweight angle to try and get his charge home. It looks worthy of another shot at a value price. Couldn’t say that I have strong confidence in the win but am sticking by the impression that a horse I’ve tracked for a long time is looking to be moving steadily towards a win again and that could well be today.

Race reading wise it has also been hard to settle on an expected finishing order as most horses have positives and negatives on paper. On balance, I like Whitley Neill’s recent form too much to consider opposing him. Stable on the pretty cold list but wind op makes me nervous of laying him and has decent form at the level. As does Ballyheigue Bay (not recent) and Volcano (lower grade). The booking of 10lb claimer Ben Godfrey gives Sizing Cusimano a big chance of replicating his form from two runs ago so I fall to I See you Well for my lay. No massive negatives other than is preferred as a chaser these days and has not won a hurdle for a very long time nor over this extended distance. Time figures suggest he may well struggle to keep up with hurdle pace.

But ultimately a pretty competitive race where you can give six of the seven a chance and I side with my stable horse Ruby Yeats to finally get her head in front again.

Bank management very much in the suggested cautious staking category.

January is nearly done!

 

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on I SEE YOU WELL

0.1pt BACK on RUBY YEATS

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 40/52 = 76.92% :   BACKS: 7/32 = 21.87%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.625 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 2)

 

Awaiting the weapons grade selection to follow on from Leg 1. Will shout as soon as it appears

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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