JANUARY 2021 – 31 day extension to
BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail
Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet (replaced from January 21st onwards by THE BOZNAP)
SATURDAY JANUARY 30th
EXTENSION DAY 30:
No arguing with Ibleo or the market. Dreadful ground might have got him beat but he was better on it than the others so that was that. Not even close really.
No regrets either though. Worth one last shot at the January hoodoo but ‘twas not to be and still ahead even in this eleven day sabbatical thanks to First Flow and Atrafan last Saturday.
Just them and Dame Du Soir as winners in January in a truly bleak month after I have to put my hands up thinking by the 11th that maybe I could go a whole January without a loser! No way José. Nothing has changed. Late January is awful for LIM and won’t be played next year even if they lock us down and throw away the key!
And yet the BOZmail posts a +0.5+ profit on the month. Better than September really as the tennis came to our rescue there! Bank management takes all the credit. Fifty quid I wouldn’t otherwise have had. The strike rates take a hit but the cash balance doesn’t.
Not the glorious end to the year I was hoping for either. Bit silly hoping for that. First Flow raised my expectations for a moment! But time to return to reality and that reality includes the news that Cheltenham and Fontwell are off at the weekend (waterlogged) and the exciting bet to start the new cycle at Sedgefield on Monday is also in doubt. Still frozen there as I write. Hey ho. British weather and all that. And so we sit tight for time being. Happy days will come again.
And we are not totally without a bet Saturday. Back to the BOZnap for a final hopeful plunge.
And it’s no more than that. You’ll remember that I flagged up a possible second leg to the staggered acca. Well Cheddleton is that but I was hoping for Shishkin to decide against turning up before recommending we plunge our £20+ First Flow winnings thereon.
Cheddleton is a very exciting prospect for the future and not an impossibility in this but he has to make some fairly rapid strides in the improvement stakes to beat Shiskin. Or get some luck. Cheddleton is in my elite stable but is one of two with some stuff still to prove and this is a serious step into the big league for him. No sign yet that he could beat the likes of Shiskin who would also be in my elite stable but for the fact that he is 1/4 for this and will be similarly short for every future race courtesy of the 5 seconds plus he holds on all others timewise from hurdling days. Supreme Novices winner last year, he has looked every bit as good over fences so far but the one chance we have is in the fact that occasionally those that shone over hurdles do get gazumped by their lesser peers after the transition to fences.
We’ve seen with First Flow last week that the new kids on the block can overthrow the old guard despite the odds. We got Defi Du Seuil beat at Cheltenham and Beuver D’air in the Xmas hurdle likewise but this is slightly different to that. Here we are asking a peer to improve five seconds over the champion purely in the transition to fences. I was comparatively bullish about First Flow’s chance last week. He had a 50-50 chance because I knew Politologue’s jumping could be frail under pressure. No sign of that with Shishkin yet but he hasn’t raced against Cheddleton before. And Cheddleton has looked a natural in his jumping so far. Will be more speed on the flat he has to find. And perhaps Shishkin to make errors not made in two exemplary chases so far. Or hate the Doncaster dead ground. All possible of course but Cheddleton more of a 10-90 chance than a 50-50 and 10/1 where First Flow was 14/1. So not even good value really. Just a maybe winner. Further doubt sown when Cornerstone Lad didn’t uphold the Cheddleton form against Henderson’s Dame Du Compagnie a fortnight back. Shiskin is potentially loads better than Dame Du Compagnie so that’s not good! But Kim Bailey didn’t expect First Flow to improve as much as he did last week so I could be wrong about Cheddleton. I don’t expect him to win and so am swopping my £20 acca stake for a £2-50 BOZnap one because there was still something in the way he pulled away from his fences in the heavy at Haydock and stranger things do happen in racing as we know. In truth I’ll be happy to see Cheddleton beat Eldorado Allen into third and will definitely keep him in my to follow horses come what may. Maybe even the elite one if he still runs well in defeat. But he does have it to prove. No doubt about that. Fingers,toes and everything crossed for him and if it gets close, you can be assured I’ll be hollering for him and have my 1.1 hedge poised at the ready. Beating Shishkin or losing to him a short head will be a tremendous achievement.
And I’ve decided after the abandonment of Fontwell and Uttoxeter on Sunday to call a no bet day to end the 2020 cycle. Just heard from Jimmy Moffatt that Tuesday’s turf jumps meeting at Newcastle on Tuesday is rescheduled as a jumpers bumper again on the sand!! That’s how bad the waterlogging is at the minute. And you see from Donacster that even the raceable tracks are pretty bloody dire! Had enough of January! Time for the fresh start!
Hey ho. There will be a post on Sunday despite the NO BET day. I have penned my fond farewells to all those leaving the BOZmail thereafter and my thank yous to the agency that has hosted this service the past two years. I will publish that Saturday night.
Until then, remember to shout as loud as you possibly can for Cheddleton!!
JANUARY EXTENSION BOZNAP 11 DAY SEQUENCE (all to be backed to 0.025pt stake) RECORD OF RESULTS:
BOZNAP NUMBER 1 – IT JUST TAKES TIME @ best priced 7/1 – 2nd
BOZNAP NUMBER 2 – BRIAN THE SNAIL @ best priced 9/2 – 2nd
BOZNAP NUMBER 3 – 3-35 ASCOT – FIRST FLOW @ best priced 16/1 – 1st
– 6-40 NEWCASTLE – ATRAFAN @ best priced 9/2 – 1st
BOZNAP NUMBER 4 – 1-50 HEREFORD – TIMETOROE @ best priced 10/1 – NR
BOZNAP NUMBER 5 – 2-20 PLUMPTON – LILLY PEDLAR @ around 3 or 4/1 – NR
BOZNAP NUMBER 6 – 2-55 SOUTHWELL – CUSTARD THE DRAGON @ 4/1 – 5th
BOZNAP NUMBER 7 – 3-35 LINGFIELD – SAAHEQ @ best priced 7/1 – 4th
BOZNAP NUMBER 8 – NO BET
BOZNAP NUMBER 9 – PLAYED AS AN LIM BET – LOSER
BOZNAP NUMBER 10 – 1-30 DONCASTER – CHEDDLETON @ best priced 10/1
BOZNAP NUMBER 11 – NO BET
BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +59.3704 points
LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points
Currently stands at : 33.7813 points (+13.7813 points)
LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 134/196 = 68.36% Backs : 39/132 = 29.54%
LIM Monthly Scores:
February: + 1.3496 points
March : + 1.5866 points
UK RACING LOCKDOWN
April : – 0.1733 points
May : – 0.8359 points
UK RACING RESTARTED
June : + 0.0428 points
July : + 0.8046 points
August : +1.9726 points (+4.747 points)
September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)
October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)
November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)
December : +0.8487 points (+13.2195 points)
January LIM/BOZnap Score:
1st: +0.098 (+0.098) Lay @ 2.75
2nd: +0.049 (+0.147) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 7.0
3rd: +0.098 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.3
4th: +0.147 (+0.392) Lay @ 2.6
5th: NO BET
6th: +0.098 (+0.49) Lay @ 3.7 (averaged)
7th: RACING ABANDONED
8th: NO BET
9th: +0.588 (+1.078) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 11.0
10th: +0.098 (+1.176) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 5.0
11th: +0.1176 (+1.2936) Lay @ 2.9
12th: -0.218 (+1.0756) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 61.0
13th: -0.131 (+0.9446) Lay @ 1.81 : Back @ 8.0
14th: -0.1 (+0.8446) Back @ 3.1
15th: -0.075 (+0.7696) Lays @ 2.0 & 3.8 : Back @ 18.0
16th: -0.068 (+0.7016) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 4.0
17th: NO BET
18th: -0.1 (+0.6016) Back @ 2.8
19th: RACING ABANDONED
20th: -0.15 (+0.4516) Lay @ 4.0
LIM suspended for the rest of January 2021 to be replaced on a daily basis by the BOZnap.
21st: -0.025 (+0.4266) Back @ 8.0
22nd: -0.025 (+0.4016) Back @ 5.5
23rd: +0.2768 (+0.6784) Backs @ 18.0 & 6.6
24th: RACING ABANDONED
25th: NON RUNNER
26th: -0.025 (+0.6534) Back @ 5.0
27th: -0.025 (+0.6284) Back @ 9.0
28th: NO BET
LIM returned on 29th for possible last play of the 2020 BOZmail cycle.
29th: -0.0666 (+0.5618) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 18.0
31st: NO BET