BOZmail 30th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 30th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 124/180 = 68.88%  Backs : 37/116 = 31.89%

2-40 TAUNTON

If you were watching Newbury you’ll have seen the ground not as soft as elsewhere and my caution with Braveman’sgame was very much not needed as he bolted in and there was never any need to trade. Terrific value we got with hindsight and another serious good one for our to follow list. Had some run of the race when Bailey’s horse ran out but don’t honestly think it made any difference. A horse to really go to war with. Well named and likely to be an even better chaser than hurdler.

We’ve hit that time of year now though when form study is less important than study of the ground.Usually kicks in big time in January but started early this year. Abandonment of Haydock means just this race to go at on Wednesday and the 6 year old Perfect Myth will have the advantages of development and jockey over these but is a short price at even money/odds on and I’ll take on at that. It is a decent quality black type race and the two French breds – Marta Des Mottes and Will Victory – look better poised to appreciate the ground. The former also gets a wedge of weight and the hat-trick seeking Talking About You also offers good LIM cover likely to contest Bryony for front running bragging rights.

Not going mad stake wise accepting now that it is about getting out of this month ahead if possible.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on PERFECT MYTH (around 2.0)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount 

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 19)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar RoseEntered for  Cheltenham (Mar 19)

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line 

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Dusart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered at Wetherby (Dec 27)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Allart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 18)

Nube Negra

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY:

1-30 NEWBURY – YOUNG WOLF @ 10/1 -0.15pt BACK 

Backed @ 22.0 : hedged @ 15.0 : P/L = 0

Left myself a fair bit of profit to play with on the reverse trade (lay before back) and was optimistic for half the race but as soon as pace lifted, he was done as suspected. Off the list now for this winter. Done alright by him. No complaints. Free bet play so no profit but no loss.

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on WEDNESDAY:

12-45 MARKET RASEN – ACROSS THE LINE @ 3/1 -0.15pt BACK

                                          –  GET YOUR OWN @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge accordingly and/or when preferential odds are offered.

Two in the same race and both trade only plays in a race not over competitive quality wise but with depth in numbers. I like the form of the Boothill race and so the former is my slight fancy to run the better race and they both may be competitive at the death but no chances taken here either as we seek to wrap up 2020 without doing any damage!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

19th:     -0.4375 (+0.9966) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 5.3

20th:     -0.278   (+0.7186) Lay @ 2.52 : Back @ 4.9

21st:     NON RUNNER

22nd:    -0.162   (+0.5566) Lays @ 2.9 & 2.52 : Backs @ 6.4 & 9.2

26th:     -0.253   (+0.3036) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 6.4

27th:    +0.147   (+0.4506) Back @ 2.5

28th:      NO BET

29th:     +0.2021(+0.6527) Back @ 3.75

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +57.8962points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.0235 points (+13.0235 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 54.8332 points (+46.8332 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1885 points (-0.8115 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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