BOZmail – 30th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY DECEMBER 30th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +18.8032 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +70.663 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-00 HAYDOCK

Who said there was no such thing as Santa Claus?!! Maire Banrigh passed her test alright and somehow traded at 5/1 on the exchanges. Undoubtedly a gift for your stockings and a welcome boost to the end of year figures and our weekend score of three winners from three. I actually posted her up at odds on when I scored the race read on Friday night so 5/1 is a sensational bucking of the trend. Well done if you got it. That pays your 2020 Sub! 

Don’t forget that Tuesday is the final day for current members to sign up to next year’s service at the discounted price. Big price hike on January 1st! Still a few current member places vacant.

Note also that those paying monthly subs since the December 19th cut off date are having those fees refunded. The only way to access the January Jamboree that I’m running in the New Year now is to sign up for next year if you haven’t already done so. If you haven’t done that by December 31st, access to my selections will cease unless you were a monthly renewer before December 19th. In that scenario your monthly sub will be honoured until January 19th as advertised whether you sign up for 2020 or not.

No LIM though. That ceases for a month on December 31st as planned. Gets a well earned rest I’d say after that last weekend!

Two more goes though in the 2019 cycle and rather appropriate I’d say that we tackle the Last Fling Handicap Chase at Haydock on Monday. A suitably wide open affair with top weighted and top rated Thomas Patrick coming back from a 317 day absence with a well deserved drop in class. He is of decided interest and in honour of that, The Boz is intending to go for a paddock watch to see what can be expected of the Tom Lacey charge fitness wise. He will have a fair chance on the book if properly tuned up. I’ll be on my mobile 07956124351 if anyone wants to ring 5-10 minutes before the off for the gen. Or if you fancy joining me there, I’ll be the tall skinny guy in the glasses and the Delboy coat hanging round the paddock. The first of many paddock watch appearances in the months ahead. Sedgefield on January 10th the next one in the book at the moment.

Back to the last fling and the way to play the race before we know of Thomas Patrick’s fitness status. The lay at the prices looks to be Perfect Candidate who won here over course and distance LTO for which he is up six pounds which won’t necessarily be a stopper based on past form but he is a 12 year old now and not noted for back to back wins. Indeed his recent pattern has been to be rested after his win and you have to go back five years to see him win two in close proximity and in lesser class than this. So whilst trainer obviously thinks he is well marked and worthy of a try, I consider this a stern task for him with several you can fancy against.Not least bottom weight Classic Ben and Hobson’s flying stable representative Lord Du Mesnilwho comes out again quickly under penalty to see if he can repeat Defi Sacre’s feat. Not beyond the bounds. 

The value of the race is Gavin Sheehan’s mount Fact of the Matter who won a Cross Country at Cheltenham off similar weight over distance and further and who I’ve seen win at Cartmel in this class back in the day. Soft ground might not suit him but looks very interesting and I shall be following his horsebox down the M6 tomorrow with a small investment intended if he’s the first horse I bump into when I get there! My main fancy however will be the dropped in class Thomas Patrick if he passes the paddock test. Watch out for that. I’m leaving him off my pre-race read and will only add on if he sparkles in the paddock. And the small play on Fact of the Matter is also conditional on what I see when I get there. Officially, I go lay only at this stage. 

Busy day again on Monday with two to follow trades to play also. See below.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on PERFECT CANDIDATE (around 3.8 :upper value parameter 4.4)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 217/325 = 66.76% :   BACKS: 59/218 = 27.06%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

8th:    -0.526 (+0.418) Lay @ 2.88 : Back @ 4.1

9th:    -0.2275(+0.1905) Lay @ 1.91

10th:   +0.245 (+0.4355) Lay @3.35

11th:    +0.047 (+0.4825) Lay @ 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

12th:    NON RUNNER

13th:    +0.294 (+0.7765) Lay @ 2.86

14th:    +0.147 (+0.9235) Lay @ 1.8

15th:    +0.4555 (+1.379) Lay @ 2.44 : Back @ 3.25

16th:    +0.294 (+1.673) Lay @ 4.0

17th:    +0.196 (+1.869)  Lay @ 2.88

18th:    +0.096 (+1.965) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 9.0

19th:    RACE ABANDONED

20th:     -0.33 (+1.635) Backs @ 2.02 & 12.0

21st:     +0.096 (+1.731) Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 11.0

26th:     -0.67 (+1.061)  Lay @ 3.85 : Back @ 4.4

27th:     +0.49 (+1.551) Lay @ 2.98

28th:     +0.225(+1.776) Back @ 1.9

29th:     +1.176(+2.952) Back @ 5.8

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Kaizer* – Entered for Musselburgh (Jan 1)

Tea Clipper* 

Nube Negra – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 10)

Black Op – Entered for RSA,NOVICES & Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10)

Wenceslaus* 

Flic Ou Voyou – Entered for Exeter (Jan 1)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Supreme Novices,Ballymore & Albert Bart 

Nordano – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 1)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa* 

Vinndication –Entered for Cheltenham Gold Cup

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Ryanair & Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Cat Tiger – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 1)

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 1)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10)

Magic of Light

Defi Sacre 

TO FOLLOW HORSES TO TRADE at TAUNTON on MONDAY:

1-15 – FLIC OU VOYOU @ around 15/8 – 0.25pt BACK 

3-30 – NORMANDY SOLDIER @ 11/4 -0.25pt BACK

Much to like about Normandy Soldier’s win for us LTO and trainer turns out again quick and with the much admired claimer Brian Carver back in the saddle. Based on that Cat Tiger race form that flagged the horse up for us, has to be in with a chance again as the step up in distance looks set to suit. First time in a handicap the slight doubt as that is always an unknown and many horses need to adjust to the different type of competition. Favourite does also look tasty with the champ on board so on balance, Normandy Soldier is a trade. Take the best back price you can get and hedge when offered preferential odds before the off or in running.

Flic Ou Voyou is a similar trade proposition. Ran in the same Champion bumper that threw up Thyme Hill so better than seen so far can be expected if eradicating the novicey jumping shown that has up to now cost the winning chance.  On ratings, could be the best of these but it is a big field with several imponderables therein so definitely a same scenario take best back price and hedge at preferential odds play for The Boz.

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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