BOZmail – 30th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY FIVE:

FRIDAY AUGUST 30th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +10.1282 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

US OPEN THIRD ROUND MATCH:

NO PLAY DAY

Got me Irish wifi  and we had a good Wednesday/Thursday with the staggered acca double and 1/2  on the LIMs. Ostapenko’s doing a win at the moment (11pm) but I still have my eye on getting involved in the trade should it be appropriate.

But can’t find an LIM for Friday so I’m calling a no play day on that whilst the weather catch up still completes. Hopefully we’ll be back on schedule for Saturday.

Do have a next leg for the staggered acca.See Below. That’s Friday’s bet!

More tomorrow now I know I can deliver summat every day. 

Recommendation:

NO PLAY

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

23rd:          -0.42 (+1.1425) Lay @1.44 : Back @ 5.0

24th:          NON RUNNER

25th:          +0.045 (+1.1875) Lay @ 1.89 : Backs @ 20.0 & 6.6

26th:           -0.268 (+0.9195) Lay @ 1.67

27th:           +0.294 (+1.2135) Lay @ 1.74

28th:            -0.13 (+1.0835) Lay @ 1.26

29th:            +0.392(+1.4755) Lay @1.24

30th:             NO PLAY DAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 152/228 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 44/154 = 28.57%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.9386 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: (LEG 3)

US OPEN WOMEN’s TENNIS 2nd ROUND MATCHES on WEDNESDAY:

Karolina MUCHOVA to beat Su-Wei HSIEH @ 1.77 – WON

Petra MARTIC to beat Ana Bogdan @ 1.49 – WON

Slightly understaked that now I see and haven’t covered deficit! Hey ho. Will shout soon as leg three emerges. Will be treated as a first leg with the tennis prediction quite in the groove now. 

US OPEN WOMEN’s TENNIS 3rd ROUND MATCH on FRIDAY:

Qiang WANG to beat Fiona FERRO @ 1.45 – 0.5pt BACK

Fairly happy this is grade A. 3-1 back score and 3-0 on hard court. Qiang is a real hardcourt specialist and top 20 now. Ferro is ok but clay is where she would have a chance. This should put the acca bank back in the black. 

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

SERENA (backed at 6.8 – laid at 6.4) Current P/L = +0.6 points

IGA SWIATEK                                                                ELIMINATED

CORI GAUFF                                                                  = +7.5 points

SOFIA KENIN                                                                 = +9.25 points

DANIELLE COLLINS                                                    = +10.0 points

REST OF THE FIELD                                                    = 0 points  

Decided to cash out on Serena after she lost first set to McNally. Got offered 6.8 and I decided it was enough given that I have all backs hedged and that I might not have access to wifi this coming week. Always better to be safe than sorry and I have said before that it’s wise never to take chances with Serena. The way she played the final set and a half v McNally could win her the title. Still doubt she can keep that up for a fortnight but was nearly wrong at Wimbledon and have been wrong once or twice before. I’ll take my free bets on the four and have fun shouting for them should I be privileged enough to see any more of the action! Portfolio computed to current P/L position and may be left there now except perhaps to turn ROF into plus.

US OPEN FOURTH DAY VALUE AGAINST THE BOOK TRADES: 

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Alison Riske @ 2.62 – WON

Didn’t need to trade. Treated it as another good fixed odds winner. A 4/5  Wednesday/Thursday and a 15/19 four days. Can’t be bad!

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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