BOZmail 30th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

SUNDAY AUGUST 30th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.7339 points (+2.7339 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.9372 points (+7.9372 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +9.0771 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +13.3647 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 48/62 = 77.41%  Backs : 9/31 = 29.03%

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LESS IS MORE

2-05 PERTH

Saturday’s Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on LOST IN SPACE (around 3.3 but take shortest price you can and hedge when appropriate as preferential odds get offered)

Laid@ 3.27 : Hedged 0.05pt @ 6.6 : P/L = +0.052pts

Well I think Saturday showed right enough why I should stay off tipping on the flat! The market too I think needs to wise up! Still very volatile there but trading bags us a winner and you see once more why I argue for trading when tipping becomes tough!

They couldn’t give that horse away and yet there it sails in!

I’ll stick to tennis and jumps from herein and I think you’ll see me avoid the flat completely in September. Whenever there is no jump racing, I’ll simply turn to tennis. Them’s my two main disciplines. Enjoyed myself studying the tennis draw and you’ll see my thoughts on that below. Meanwhile a jumps LIM for Sunday. Not an easy one but quite keen to play in it. 

Scardura looks a worthy fav on his form behind Longhouse Sale and that does make him marginally the on paper pick. I have two of my to follow horses in the race however and think either could serve it up to the Mulholland horse. Global Tour is very closely matched and boasts the weight allowance gotten by excellent claimer Max Kendrick who gave this a great ride LTO. Penalty to carry but one definitely to follow against Scardura who is a novice so could buckle in this with pressure put on his jumping at the death.

Value in the race lies with Return Ticket and it looks now that the disappointing hurdles run was an expected for the Menzies yard as they prepared him for his return to fences where his future undoubtedly lies. I give him another chance to show his class here albeit that he has to give weight away all round. Hence his price which is fair. It is a good race live on ITV and others in the race have chances on Chase debut especially Siannes Star for Brian Ellison under the champ so he is good cover along with our to follow horse Global Tour.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SCARDURA (around 2.8 or lower if you can secure it)

0.05pt BACK on RETURN TICKET (around 11.0)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

23rd:    +0.196 (+1.5828) Lay @ 3.0

24th:     -0.65   (+0.9328) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 16.0

25th:    +0.4017 (+1.3345) Back @ 9.05

26th:    +0.196  (+1.5304) Back @ 12.82 : Lay @ 8.15 etc

27th:    +0.196  (+1.7266) Lay @ 1.7

28th:    +0.098  (+1.8246) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 26.0

29th:    +0.052  (+1.8766) Lay @ 3.27 : Back @ 6.6

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar 

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach -Entered for Southwell (Aug 31)

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

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US OPEN preview DAY ONE:

plus winner portfolio and first round bets:

The US open never my favourite of the women’s slams but I’m playing it this year! Starved of action, I’ve never been keener to get stuck into a tournament! I usually start with the winner portfolio but I shall leave that for a few rounds this year as obviously the understandable defection of a lot of the top players – including defending champion Bianca Andrescu – does skew things a tad. More of the cream in attendance than I was expecting mind you and they’ve done well to put a competitive looking event together. And the two favs in the betting – Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams – do look to have secured favourable quarter draws. With Osaka in form in the prep (playing final in the Western Open v Azarenka as I write) and Serena coming to the point of no return now in her quest to secure the record breaking slam win, they are both dangerous looking in the tournament overall and can be left alone for now. The one I did want to take on early was the Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin – number two seed – who has a tough quarter draw and lost her only prep match but she is 22.0 to lay in the outrights at the moment which is too long and so I sit tight with her as well for now but she will be the match lay focus in the early rounds particularly her first round match as you’ll see below. She is a whopping price to get beat in that! 

So that’s all on the portfolio for now. Got my eye on my long term dark horse Iga Swiatek who will come into the portfolio once I form it if she starts well. I shall also be watching early rounds on the lookout for the new young talent. Several US unheard ofs have got wild cards as you would expect and there is always one of those who surfaces. Fascinating also to see several old birds fluttering their wings including former champion Kim Clijsters (big wow if she were to win it!), 40 year old Venus Williams and Tsvetana Pironkova who is always a dark horse on a quick surface. She might make my back portfolio at a price if she starts well. Getting toward her last chance saloon at winning a slam now and the US Open does throw that opportunity to a deserving winner every now and then. Flavia Pennetta the last to succeed in that category.

So to the first round which starts on Monday and how I’m betting on it. Sadly my number one trade in running hero – Jelena Ostapenko – is one of those swerving on health grounds and is more likely to play the French Open later in the month. There are however a clutch of first round matches for you to look at. Particularly those keen to sharpen their in running trading skills. Tennis is an extended live time event so is less hurly burly than in running horse race betting and for those who like watching the tennis too, it is a recommended way to bet. My fixtures to trade on are nearly always those where the start price outsider can be given a decent chance of the upset and the first proviso is that similar to the horse racing advice. Back at the best pre match price you can get and hedge as soon as preferential odds are offered. Depending then on how the match goes and what you see in front of you, there is opportunity to back and lay in segments and to continue playing to optimise your profit. Or not. Some shut the satchel as soon as the greened out profit position is achieved. Some like to play on. The choice is yours and depends on how much you know about what you are seeing perhaps but as always with trading, the opportunity to practice skills in live time is invaluable and no better sport for me on that score than tennis. Women’s tennis in particular. Momentum swings in matches are very common as you’ll see if you are watching for the first time.

My first round value trading matches are as follows starting with the pearler featuring the number two seed Sofia Kenin. Remember that these are all trade in running advices and you will need to get organised and have plenty of time available if you are going to play them. They all look to have excellent chance to create greened out profit positions in my estimation. I shall be starting each with a 0.15pt level back stake. Prices in brackets are those on offer on the Betfair exchange at the time of writing and will of course be subject to change and published only as a rough guide of what you should be looking for. Always get better prices if you can!! I publish the list in value order with the best value match coming first.

Yanina Wickmayer (8.6) to beat Sofia Kenin 

Stefani Voegele (5.7) to beat Maria Sakkari

Anna Blinkova (4.8) to beat Jennifer Brady

Madison Brengle (2.1) to beat Lesia Tsurenko

Kurumi Nara (2.1) to beat Patricia Maria Tig

So completes my first round list of potential upsets against the book. First line recommended way to play them is as in running trades and those I am able to play that way myself will be settled on here as such. It is also possible however for those who don’t have the time to do the trading to consider level stakes win singles on the above with a reasonable chance of overall profit. Two or three successful final result predictions will secure a level stakes profit and my bank management recommendation for that approach would be a level stake 0.05pt as acceptable risk. If you are that kind of player of course you could also plan small stake multiple perms from the above. They are chosen more for giving chance at a greening trade but the final result upset is also a possible in each case based on past form and head to head study so I don’t rule any of them out as possible upset wins. And the five timer would make a nice acca! I leave you to determine stakes for that approach. No official first round acca recommendations from the value picks.

 I reserve that for my list of first round bankers which is as follows:

Camila Giorgi (1.5) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck

 Alize Cornet (1.33) to beat Lauren Davis

Alison Riske (1.17) to beat Tatjana Maria 

Petra Kvitova (1.18) to beat Irina Begu

I stake that as a 0.25pt four timer.

My total bank management spend on first round fixtures is thus 0.5pt if you are backing at fixed odds and 1pt if you are playing as a trader.

Good Luck with your bets and enjoy watching some tennis!

BOZ

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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