BOZmail – 30th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY APRIL 30th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY  

5-10 NOTTINGHAM

Hindsight on Monday showed that I should have persevered on splitting the backs and perhaps had I perceived that the winner would go out to 8/1, I might have. He was certainly value at that but by same token, at half way, I thought he had no chance! Hindsight is a wonderful thing but worthless in many ways. I was cautious yesterday but got us back on the win trail and after a difficult four days, I’m ok with being just marginally forward score wise. Importance of breaking even philosophy again. Always keen not to go backwards and certainly not significantly backwards.

Someone did email and ask that with a gun to my head which of the two might I back.

My answer was neither or both and if I got shot for the answer, as ever, no regrets!!

If you backed both, you are a less cautious geezer than me. Which is fine!

All that said, Tuesday I am more inclined to have a go a/ because it is last day of the month and the doubling of bank since service started can be secured thus keeping my record  keeping accounts manager happy and b/ this is actually a more attractive race than those of late.

Starting with likely race favourite Tenax as a lay coming from a stable on a woeful winnerless run and whose running to form score is a lowly 20% from a high incidence of runners. I say likely favourite because the three tissues I’ve seen so far have him at 13/8 – 9/4 & 6/1 with the middle looking to be the most accurate and on offer as I write.

You could get shorter as he ran in a good race LTO finishing third with the winner having gone on to win an even better race since. Tenax comes down in class here and will be fancied but I put a lot of store on that stable running to form figure at this time of year and Tinkler’s are almost all running below it. Furthermore, the second in that LTO race was also a Tinkler charge which came out again at Doncaster at the weekend and ran even worse. The running to form in the stable looks a progressively worsening figure at the moment and whilst that will change at some point, it basically means Tenax is a false fav in this to my thinking. Times confirm this with Free Love’s winning form LTO superior. That said he has a 17lb turnaround with the second Khafooq to overcome this time (for 2 lengths) which makes Khafooq a value bet in my eyes especially in view of the quick time the race was run in relative to the form of the rest of this field. The Sporting Life are also saying a 7lb turnaround which may also influence the market in our favour as I’m convinced it is 17lb with jockey claims taken into account. Khafooq gave 8lb LTO allowing for the Free Love jockey claim but this time gets 9lb with both jockeys at level 5lb claim. I make that a clear 17lb difference between what they competed at last time.

That makes Free love a possible lay aswell and if you come to a market where he is fav over Tenax, that may be the way to play.

There is a further complication in the forecast good to soft ground as that may play to Converter most and is a question mark for the rest. Converter ideally wants further (that also applies to Tenax in my book) but softer ground might bring the stamina players in but as usual with the British weather, Monday was a drying day generally and rain forecast is localised (none for Nottingham according to the BBC) so we may also be back to good ground in which case I fancy Channon’s Converter less at a likely shortish price (11/4 second fav as I write).

All this considered, I am against Tenax and Free Love at the prices and for Khafooq and Converter with the other two in the field as cover as neither can be dismissed entirely.

So a double lay and a double back race for me to end the month with the emphasis on the backs. The slight doubt about Tenax is his being a Joseph O’Brien cast off (good or bad is hard to say) so I’m not inclined to take risks with him. On the flip side, Khafooq – my definite value in the race – is a Michael Stoute cast off so also either good or bad but at prices, he is my race main play.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on TENAX (around 3.3 : not greater than 3.5)

0.125pt LAY on FREE LOVE (around 4.4 : no greater)

0.15pt BACK on KHAFOOQ (around 8.0)

0.1pt BACK on CONVERTER (dropped if the ground comes up good)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

20th:    +0.243 (+2.152)LAY @ 2.0 : BACK @ 38.0

21st:     +0.194 (+2.346)LAY @ 2.62 : BACK @ 28.0

22nd:    +0.686 (+3.032)LAY @ 1.7

23rd:     +0.194 (+3.226)LAY @ 2.7

24th:     +1.092 (+4.318)LAY @ 1.7 : BACKS @ 4.5 & 9.0

25th:     +0.745 (+5.063)LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 6.0

26th:     +0.24 (+5.303)LAY @ 2.96

27th:      -0.22 (+5.083)LAY @ 2.1

28th:      NO PLAY DAY

29th:      +0.245 (+5.328)LAY @ 4.3

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 96/133 = 72.18% :   BACKS: 22/85 = 25.88%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit

Opechee

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action

King of Comedy

Land of Legends

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 3)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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