BOZmail – 2nd SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY EIGHT:

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 2nd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +10.1282 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

US OPEN FOURTH ROUND MATCH:

Julia Goerges v Donna Vekic

Strong back form favours the German so surprising to find the odds as they are.

With the demise of the staggered acca and the dissolution of the outrights portfolio,just a few small plays for this second week now and this looks a good one to repair the LIM damage caused by Lady Markby who didn’t actually run that badly but showed those worrying recalcitrant traits early again and was thus never really in the race. Fav of course was also another class.

Recommendation:

0.25pt BACK on JULIA GOERGES at 2.16 

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0         

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 153/230 = 66.52% :   BACKS: 44/156 = 28.20%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: 

So the final acca repaired damage only. I’ll take time out now to consider the next step and keep you all informed of decisions as they are made.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

SERENA                                                   Current P/L = +0.6 points

REST OF THE FIELD                                                    = 0 points  

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FOURTH ROUND US OPEN MATCH TO TRADE on MONDAY:

Naomi Osaka v Belinda Bencic

Osaka put a bit of a nail in my outright bet with a comprehensive dumping of Gauff but she doesn’t look unbeatable at the Meadow this year for all that she has certainly got her mojo back. A totally different proposition on the surface.

Bencic is likewise and has a 2-1 plus back score and a 1-0 on hardcourt and has always looked in the Osaka class for winning a slam without ever really delivering mentally. Has been convincing so far though and at 2.94, she is value. Very small stakes play but a 50-50 chance and thus a worthy bet. Usual caveat of back before the off and take the first opportunity to hedge in play and then be ready for any ping pong. This is a match up that could have that.

Recommendation:

0.25pt BACK on BELINDA BENCIC to beat NAOMI OSAKA @ 2.94 

SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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