BOZmail 2nd SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2nd  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +13.7077 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.943 points (+4.943 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 18.3587 points (+10.3587 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 75/105 = 71.42%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

NO BET

Just the second day of September and already a no bet day despite two NH meetings. Huge fields and incidence again and although there is a six runner bumper at Uttoxeter and a seven runner chase at Hexham, both look dicey and neither qualify strictly under LIM criteria. And it is September. So with three to follow horses running to play plus the tennis, I’ve taken a BetLessWinMore decision and decided not to risk LIM on the day and play other ways instead. With a gun to my head, the squeezed LIM lay would have been Somethingaboutangela so you can see if I made a right call staying out or not. That race looks mega September and/or new post lockdown race framing rules which I’m still working my head round. Untrustworthy and looks set up for the fav on the face of it. I’ll sit and watch.

And what did I think of our play on September 1st? Very September. Lucky. I thought two out the Skelton horse had it. The weight did come to our rescue. So just not great I’m afraid. I’m off to watch the tennis!

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Salisbury (Sep 3)

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi – Entered at Sedgefield (Sep 4)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered at Southwell (Sep 3)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW HORSES RUNNING on WEDNESDAY:

12-40 UTTOXETER – BALAGAN – NON RUNNER

3-20 UTTOXETER – OSCAR ROSE @ 9/2 – 0.25pt BACK

This constitutes nap of the day on his Stratford form behind Leoncavallo and no trading on this one. Straight back at best price you can get.

4-15 HEXHAM – PISGAH PIKE @ 8/13 – 0.25pt BACK

No trade on this one either. Strongly fancied on form behind Sangha River. Bit short

So try for best price you can get. Another straight back.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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US OPEN report DAY TWO:

plus winner portfolio and first round bets:

Truly great to be getting up in the middle of the night again to be watching the tennis! Thoroughly enjoyed my first day and night of the US open and a decent bag of results. Kvitova won easy to get the acca off to a fine start and although Van Uytvanck gave us a scare with some rocket fuel first set serving against Giorgi, the Belgian then fell in to one of her big soggy energy saturated black holes and gave the second set to Giorgi. Still playing as I write but back on course……….. The final set was classic yoyo women’s tennis. Van Uytvanck from looking bereft in the second set went 4-1 and 5-3 and the acca goose looked cooked. But you are never out til you’re out in women’s tennis. The Belgian – who I genuinely thought would reach top ten at one point – has real movement issues when fatigued and gets easily down on herself. Giorgi is hardly Miss rocksolid however and had to rely on Van Uytvanck – who isn’t at her best on the surface anyways – to keep trying to lose it before Giorgi was finally able to assert 7-5. A very poor last four games by the Belgian whose serve can be a barrage blitz but when that tires, her game tends to fall apart. Especially on this surface where her height works against her.Neither of these will ever win a Slam! And so the value in the acca is landed by the skin of the proverbials! Riske is one set up as I head back to bed for an extra couple of hours kip. Happy days!

Over on the trades, Brengle played a different opponent in her first round match up but the odds were the same and she didn’t even need a hedge and breezed through to put first profit in the bag. Blinkova was always the underdog against a snarling Brady who does seem to have beefed up since I last saw her and is in form. She smashed through the first set so that I was able to back Blinkova again at 12.0 and then effect a break even hedge when Blinkova broke early in the second set and led 2-0. I was on decent Blinkova profit at that point and zero on Brady but no further progress from there as Brady broke straight back and reasserted her snarl. She is a new breed bulldog Yankee who they tell me will go places in this tourney but I wasn’t over impressed with the tennis finesse. Shan’t be backing her in my portfolio and got out of the defeat without loss. Blinkova did wilt like a limp lily after that brief window she gave to save the bet (for which of course I thank her!).

Other significant news is that Osaka turned up v Doi with a privet hedge sticking out of her cap and did the trademark Serena protect your dodgy hamstring tactic of standing at the centre base and letting Doi do the running whilst smashing unplayables all around her. It worked first set which she breezed 6-3 but is trailing 2-4 second set as I write. Doi got the measure. Osaka looks safe to open my portfolio on so long as she does come through this. She won’t win on a dodgy hamstring. Doi won the second set but I gotta get more kip so I’ll let Osaka dangle and hope she gets through so I can lay her in the outrights tomorrow! By the looks, she could just as easy be out and her current outright lay price is not looking good. I’m not taking that! Those that know think she’s already gone!

Woke back up to news that Osaka showed her class and went through so I’ll look hard now at the bet to lay her in the outrights and start the portfolio. Will report back on that before the start of round two.Riske also cruised through to bring up the third leg of the acca. Opportunity to hedge that now if required and may treat the remaining Cornet as a trade in that way. But may also let that run. Cornet beat Kenin in the warm up tourney so although not the most solid on the tour, ought to be a safe outclass against Davis. That pegged into my trade possibles though on a busy day two where I am also involved elsewhere. So off to plan my schedule. You have to be organised with your time when trading on a Slam!

VALUE FIRST ROUND PICKS to start as 0.15pt BACKS for in play trading & hedging:

Yanina Wickmayer (8.6) to beat Sofia Kenin 

Stefani Voegele (5.7) to beat Maria Sakkari

Anna Blinkova (4.8) to beat Jennifer Brady

Backed @ 5.5 & 12.0 : hedged @ 5.0 : P/L = 0

Madison Brengle (2.1) to beat Ariyna Rodionova

Backed @ 2.1 – No hedging necessary : P/L = +0.165

Kurumi Nara (2.1) to beat Patricia Maria Tig

 I reserve that for my list of first round bankers which is as follows:

Camila Giorgi (1.5) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck – WON

 Alize Cornet (1.33) to beat Lauren Davis

Alison Riske (1.17) to beat Tatjana Maria – WON

Petra Kvitova (1.18) to beat Irina Begu – WON

I stake that as a 0.25pt four timer.

BOZ

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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