BOZmail – 2nd OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 2nd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.5647 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.812 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY 

1-55 NOTTINGHAM

Ach, spit. Haven’t had one of them for a while where the clear pick looks to have it won and trades at 1.1 in running and then manages to give it away. That careful jump at the last a product of the loss of confidence from last time-out spill perhaps and even then nearly proved my figures by coming back on the flat. But ultimately chinned just when I could have done with a good start to a month. Murphy’s Law. Let’s see if the staggered acca suffers the same fate!!

Well it didn’t. Indeed only Nietzsche really who has defied the shortlist predictions so far today so I suppose that is a version of Murphys Law in itself. I had one of my heavy ground in running plays that suffered at Southwell as well though. Horse called Applaus called the winner by everyone including me only to be a victim of a 1.01 camera angle misjudgement trading scenario. He got chinned just like Nietzsche did.

Hey ho, it can only get better!

On to Wednesday at Bangor on Dee where my nap goes as second leg of the staggered acca. Struggled to find an LIM play here with Ballyart looking a possible lay but from the dubious Twisty yard where they are either primed or not primed at this time of year. You need a paddock watch there to be sure of things. Not taking too many chances after the day one reverse. So back to the flat at Nottingham and a small play on the Richard Fahey fav on Heavy ground. Very short on what he showed so far and plenty of dangers around including the two previous runners Rathagan(my value pick) and Abbaleka. Two interesting newcomers also run for us in Baileys Blues and Marina Grove so very much a day of playing the prices.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on SPIRIT OF THE SKY (around 2.3 ; no greater than 2.6)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 164/252 = 65.07% :   BACKS: 48/171 = 28.07%

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This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.205 points. 

(Leg 2)

12-15 BANGOR – BACK on LEGENDS GOLD – 0.205pt BACK (even money)

Looks nailed on for the in form Curtis yard on the formbook.

No.21 (Leg 1)

4-00 SEDGEFIELD – LAY on MURPHY’S LAW – 0.5pt (LAID @ 1.92) – WON

Some respite from Murphy’s Law at last! Really determined to make this the staggered acca to make all our near misses count!

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer  

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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