BOZmail 2nd OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

FRIDAY OCTOBER 2nd  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +28.0538 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.7541 points (+5.7541 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 31.3852 points (+23.3852 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.0635 points (+0.0635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 83/116 = 71.55%  Backs : 22/72 = 30.55%

3-20 FONTWELL

Buster Edwards comes out best on my figures but this is a wide open race and the 10lb claim offered by talented jockey Nathan Brennan does seriously put Pres into the mix. And Buster Edwards is still new at the game but does have a recent outing and fitness on his side. Pres also looks to have a preference for soft or heavy ground and not likely to get that here.

Of the front three in the betting, hard to know which will go off fav but my clear preferred lay of the three is Never Learn although wouldn’t want to take too high a price and am adjusting stake to fit. He is touted by the pundits so might not go too high but 5.0 on Betfair market at the moment and I’m leaving alone if that’s how it goes. Between 3.5 and 4.0 I’m happy to take at 0.2pt and a bit above if I have to. Very much a market watch race though and several can be given a chance of winning. As well as the top two mentioned above, One of Us and Cheque en Blanc are decent cover.

Recommended:

0.2pt LAY on NEVER LEARN (get the best price you can around 3.75 to 4.4 and adjust stake down if you have to take higher)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY SIX)

Ostapenko was in stunning form. She carries on playing like that, she can win here again. Under the roof seemed to suit her. No sign of the service hassle that has dogged her last three years (ball toss easier with no wind?) and her colossal self belief and speed of movement in tandem with the ever present booming forehand blew the number two seed off the court. Great to see. Drop shot also come into her game now as well. Better player in that than she was when she beat Halep in the 2017 final. Can she do it again? Wouldn’t be Ostapenko without a slight wobble at 3-1 in the first set – her only loss of serve in the match – and it constituted a yoyo of sorts for which I and millions were grateful! Plenty keyed into trading her matches now and over one and a half million traded on Betfair. Hope that was some of you too. Of all the regular betting systems I employ, trading Ostapenko tennis matches has been the most profitable in the past five years. And she looks ready to me to take on Halep again if she keeps that self belief and energy intact.

Day six looks a quieter day for us betting wise with the portfolio taking precedence now. We have Halep v Anisimova which is a match bet you could trade but with a good score in that bank now, I’ll be concentrating on managing my portfolio position in play. Taking any chance to hedge the Halep price that Anisimova gives us. I took a bit low on the three I backed yesterday with all prices expanding there to 30/48 and 95 respectively. Maybe you got on at those better odds with the delay in my sending out the sheet. I certainly should have waited! Patience as ever a virtue in this game.

The other possible third round trade match on day six would be Garcia v Mertens where the French number one holds sway but she is a portfolio play as well for me now. Does look in a great position to make semi after Serena’s defection with that bottom half containing four players all out of the top hundred. One of those is Pironkova who we know to have a misleading ranking at the moment. She looks good for quarter finals whilst Garcia must play two good ones in Mertens and Svitolina but does hold encouraging back score plusses against both. I shall be concentrating on managing her portfolio position in those two matches also.

Off now to watch Rybakina v Ferro which is my research match on day five. Will report any significance I find in that. Have my eye on it as my portfolio addition in that half of the draw.

Second round bankers acca:

Simona Halep to beat Irina Camila Begu @ 1.1 – WON

Serena Williams to beat Tsvetana Pironkova @ 1.4 – VOID

Caroline Garcia to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich @ 1.58 – WON

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Katerina Siniakova @ 1.66 – LOST

0.1pt FOUR TIMER = P/L -0.1pt

Day Five Second round trades:

0.1pt BACK Jelena Ostapenko to beat Karolina Pliskova @ 2.72 – WON

Backed @ 2.74 : Hedged 0.18pt @ 1.5 : P/L = +0.08232pts or 

Hedge taken at 3-1 first set:

Backed @ 2.5 : Hedged 0.1pt @1.47 : P/L +0.103pts : Total P/L = +0.1852points

Backed again at 3-3 first set.Hedge taken at end of first set: 

0.1pt BACK Daria Kasatkina to beat Ariyna Sabalenka @ 2.36 – LOST (Trade Win)

Backed @ 2.6 : Hedged 0.18pt @ 1.6 : P/L = +0.0784pts 

0.1pt BACK Ana Bogdan to beat Sofia Kenin @ 3.15 – LOST (Trade Win)

Backed @ 3.2 : Hedged 0.25pt @ 1.42 : P/L =  +0.147pts

Outrights Portfolio:

0.1pt BACK Patricia Maria Tig @ 450.0 Hedged 0.1pt @250.0  (+20.15) 

0.05pt BACK Caroline Garcia @ 80.0 (+4.15)

0.05pt BACK Iga Swiatek @ 24.0  (+1.35)

0.05pt BACK Amanda Anisimova @ 40.0 (+2.15)

0.3pt LAY on Simona Halep @ 3.2  (-0.81)

REST OF THE FIELD (+0.15)

All hands to the pump tomorrow to hedge Halep if Anisimova gets any kind of advantage over her. It is the first of a few chances to get the Roumanian beat. I have taken a whack hedge on Tig to start the lowering of liability on Halep. She won well again today but is not fav to get through next round v Ferro or Rybakina though you never know. She certainly strutted her stuff again today against McHale. Am looking to include Ostapenko after today and also the winner of the Ferro-Rybakina match although I may play that as a match bet as the winner plays Tig next so we obviously have a position already there. Do I think Tig could go all the way? It really is an outsider’s year with only Halep of the big guns really convincing me at the moment and she would have to be gettable in theory. So yes, Keeping Tig in as a 20pt winner at this stage. Been done before!

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.3pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.2141pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon – Entered @ Southwell (Oct 6)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Oct 4)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway – Entered @ Kelso (Oct 4) 

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Kelso (Oct 4) & Sedgefield (Oct 7)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on THURSDAY:

1-45 Warwick – Calum Gilhooley @ 9/2 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 5.5 : 0.125pt hedge @ 4.1 : P/L = 0.0245pts

Ran ok. About as expected and can stay on the list for that. Sketchy at hurdles and will improve at that but plenty of umpfh on the flat which was expected with how they bet him. Not a value back at ISP price I hasten to add. Wise play was laying at that as indeed we more or less did! I trust you noted that the race was won by the defector from yesterday’s LIM race. Always a tip that!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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