BOZmail – 2nd NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 2nd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.1357 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +61.198 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

2-25 DOWN ROYAL

Before I forget, a few of you have asked how the crunch chess match in Stourbridge went on Wednesday. Well, my game ended in a draw (didn’t actually play that well but showed my experience to defend a losing position successfully!) and the match also ended equal at 3-3. Ain’t you surprised I play a sport where the importance of not losing is considered greater than that of winning! The draw keeps Redditch at the top of Division Two of the Birmingham & District league (where they belong) and yes, I did commit to a 320 mile round trip to play as a sub when my home town were short!

Such is the dedicated obsession of the chess player. A talent I bring to this here BOZmail business likewise. And you guys play your part in that too of course. You might be interested in my November betting fable contribution to Insiders magazine – the Betting School weekly publication – in which you feature (reprinted below). If you successfully laid Lisnagar Oscar at Stratford on Halloween anyways. Did you know you were helping to save the country by so doing! Well, you do now! Good on yer. Yes, BOZmailers, your country needs you! And I’ll be coming back to that ‘closed shop’ theme when I expand on plans for BOZmail 2020 in the days ahead.

Meanwhile back to the business of making November a blast. I have a football insight to share for the staggered acca in November now. Longstanding BOZmailers will remember that the last published staggered acca to be ultimately successful was a football one and took place in November 2018 – just before we began on the BLWM platform. No co-incidence that we are coming back to football again now. Eyes peeled on here for the weeks ahead with first effort below as indeed immediate start for the next staggered acca attempt.

LIM stays in the quality races on Saturday as we hop over to Ireland for the Champion Chase at Down Royal where Gordon Elliot’s talented novice potential Delta Work takes on Paul Nicholls’ King George winner and Gold Cup 5th, Clan Des Obeaux. Not that it’s just between those two as Noel Meade runs two with a squeak in Snow Falcon and Road to Respect as well as Elliot’s outsider Alpha Des Obeuaux who wouldn’t be totally out of it on some form including his second to Kemboy at Clonmel this time last year. Don’t be surprised to see Davy Russell make a bid for home on this one in case those tracking make jumping errors or are ring rusty. Snow Falcon has also had a run and could come to this fitter than some. On the book however it is between the top two and although not all of Nicholls’ stars have come out firing FTO this year, Quel Destin did last week suggesting nowt amiss at Ditcheat and thus I expect the Clan to come and stamp his class on this race under Harry Cobden. Holds Delta Work on my figures – time and class – and whilst the Elliot horse is open to improvement, Clan himself is only a 7 year old and can generally be expected to come on again this season. He runs well in this and they’ll be wanting better than 5th in this year’s Gold Cup!!

Not as confident a lay as the past couple of days, but a good one nevertheless with some decent LIM cover in Snow Falcon and Alpha Des Obeaux as race fit animals.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DELTA WORK (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.2)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 183/279 = 65.59% :   BACKS: 52/189 = 27.51%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

(leg 1)

FC FYLDE to beat DOVER at best priced 15/13 in the National League – 0-25pt BACK

BOZmailers with long memories will remember my allegiance to local footy team Morecambe who my eldest son and I saw up into the Football League back in the day. I don’t go any more but have always kept a fond eye on them and in recent years have watched longstanding manager Jim Bentley keep them up against the financial odds.

Poor year ahead for the Shrimps this year though but rather than bet them for relegation, I have avoided that act of fan treachery and decided to follow the manager I rate in his new post trying to get FC Fylde to replicate the Morecambe achievement and achieve league status. Two year project and already he has had his effect as the losing run broken at Mill farm with a win and a draw away at Boreham Wood and Maidenhead. They play host at home to Dover this weekend. Good price at 15/13 for Bentley to lead his new National league side to victory on home debut. Long memories again will remember last time I tipped in non league football, home town Redditch apart, was my prediction of league status for the two new North West boys – Salford City and FC Fylde. Beckham’s dough got the Salford outfit there first. Time coming now for FC Fylde to go on a run and catch up!

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi 

Unwin VC – Entered for Exeter (Nov 5)

Commodore Barry – Entered for Exeter (Nov 5)

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Huntingdon (Nov 3) & Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano – Entered for Huntingdon (Nov 3)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa – Entered for Newbury (Nov 7)

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HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

3-40 WETHERBY – LA BAGUE AU ROI @5/2 – 0.25pt BACK

Could be a shoo-in in this with her mare’s allowance and although soft ground is a slight question mark at the top level, only defeat last year was that final game second to Kalashnikov who didn’t let the form down in that ‘flat finish’ at Aintree last week.

Straight back in this really. No price for trading with unless she should go out to silly prices in running which if she does, you could take to trade back. Fixed odds back for me.

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

2-30 WETHERBY – NORDANO – 0.25pt WIN @ 6/1

(backed @ 6.6 : Hedged in running 0.4pt @ 1.6)

Looked like Bryony might hang on in front after the last although the pack were coming and I made no mistake hedging out my planned 0.4pt managing to get a not damaging 1.6 and thus securing a bit of trade profit over the two bets on the day.

12-55 UTTOXETER – WENCESLAUS – 0.25pt WIN @ 5/1

(Backed @ 8.0 : Hedged in running 0.35pt @ 2.4)

Got out of the Wenceslaus single bet on the run in as it was in the balance. Covered my double stake as well in case he didn’t get up which sadly he didn’t. Good run though.Winner was a deserved fav winner. Stuck his neck out well. 

P/L on the day = +0.15 points (less commission) = +0.147 points

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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ATELIER FERMÉ

( the latest fable from The Boz based loosely on what’s been going on in the world he lives in over the past three years!)

In 21st century Europe – in the time when collaboration between English, French and German Governments was at its most strained – there arose a financial organisation designed to bring together the ordinary people of those key nations. To include them in an operation that would bring back the bonhomie and camaraderie of the eschewing years. To ensure their wellbeing in terms of employment,security and fiscal prosperity. It was called Atelier Fermé after the popular labour movement idea of early years. Commonly known in American English as The Closed Shop. The name was a sort of joke coined by the English and encaptured perfectly in the language of the French. Throughout England and the British Isles at this time, the cornerstone of the economy, the bastion of English everyday life was under threat. They were closing betting shops everywhere! The internet revolution had switched the fundamental activity of the common man and woman – i.e. the daily sporting investment – from a seedy sawdusted back door taproom where it was necessary to spittoon on entrance to validate your membership of the working classes – via the latter day salon beautifique with banks of televisions showing international horse racing and women’s tennis (complemented by Wacky Races style cartoon greyhound contests on which you could actually bet!) where you could have your beard or your helmet coiffured as you watched your money go down the pan – into the current embodiment of betting in your bedroom. With laptop perched on a pillow. A solitary gaming experience done in the privacy of your own boudoir. With non of the banter of yesteryear . No one-eyed alcoholics boasting of their threepenny yankees that had come in at odds of twelve thousand to one. No teenage yuppies in their city slick winklepickers with bling necklace and cutglass finger rings discussing the possibility of Arsenal outscoring Chelsea this week in the number of corner kicks they would procure. Not even the super bored cashier who stared at you with the stamp of an ‘I could be working in the Bahamas if I hadn’t backed that tip you gave me last week’ petulance as they handed you the complimentary paper cup of microwaved water with a miniscule teabag flavouring floating in it. You know the one that’s impossible to drink without taking the roof of your mouth off?

All gone now. As the High Streets generally became boarded up windows and economic deserts to the concept of having your shopping delivered to you direct from a digitally connected warehouse somewhere in the outer regions of a disused fracking site, so the social sensation of the post war years – the Saturday shindig in the bookies discussing the whys and wherefors of the 3-15 at Kempton with all the boys from the council estate before it actually ran – vanished. You were on your own now. Watching the entire Kempton card with no-one to talk to other than your lucky mascot teddy bear. You know the one you always kiss for good luck as the race gets underway. Such was life in the early echelons of the 21st century.

Atelier Fermé set out to change that. To bring back the pazazz of the betting experience. To enable lonely,disenfranchised men and women to enjoy the concept of bashing the bookmaker again in a collective way. As part of the pack. Part of the social melee. To enjoy the orgasmic thrill of the long priced winner as a shared experience. Not some saddo solitary victory. One that we, the worker ants, the soldiers of the nation, those who oiled the wheels of industry and the national economy could revel in. Cheer together like ritualistic tribalists as we did in 1966 when England won the World Cup. Remember that? Those days were back and the French and the Germans were our friends now. They’d had that experience too. They knew what it was like to win the World Cup.Forget Brexit and the Maastricht Treaty and the pains of the European Rate mechanism. We would tread together into the 21st century and bring back the betting experience as a national sport to be enjoyed by all. On line. No need for old style betting shops to meet in. We would have  Atelier Fermé – the digital closed shop with cyber forums that would not only give us the winners to back and the favourites to lay – but would also make us agents of influencing the markets. You know that activity that was done in the olden times by bankers and bookmakers and City hedge fund managers? Stock market traders and pension fund managers diddling away to ensure monetary growth on a daily basis. That was our job now! The invention of the betting exchanges had given us access.

We signed up with Atelier Fermé and thus began the people’s control of their own economic destiny.

Of course the joke in the name was not really a joke. The Closed Shop idea was a political tool and a necessity to ensure the success of Atelier Fermé. In the open market there is always the need for secrecy and the closing of ranks in order to keep control. To not allow the anarchists and the agitators any breathing space. There will always be hooligans and what are known as ‘graffitiists’ in any organized attempt at social democracy. Whilst the Atelier Fermé promoted equality and opportunity for all, it had a necessity to keep the destroyers out. Those who believed in fascism and rule by rod. They were as ever an enemy to exclude. And so Atelier Fermé were an idealism and a civilised and democratic modus operandi for peaceful life but they had ever to protect themselves from the elite. But they did it! 

Simply by working together in the common aim of backing a winner! The first official race that Atelier Fermé played in was the 2-20 at Stratford on the 31st October 2019.

This was a symbolic inauguration for Atelier Fermé as  it marked the day when the elite had been threatening by all means foul to totally destabilize the European harmony and take fascism to new world and technological height. Control for the elite. Much work had been done through the legislative process to thwart this initiative and keep the possibility of people power and social democracy intact but it was only in part achieved. The promised Halloween entreaty had been temporarily thwarted and it was necessary for Atelier Fermé to move into action to establish itself for the future and pull off a coup that would signal to the elite that they were now a force to be reckoned with. An alliance of ordinary people taking control of their own financial destinies without kowtowing to the vagaries of the state elite. The 2-20 at Stratford was the chosen race. A Beginners Chase in which the British trainer Rebecca Curtis was running a horse called Lisnagar Oscar who was widely regarded as a hurdler in form and ready to score an initial chasing victory. The old elite were championing its chances and the money was pouring down from all supporters of the old order who had been promised their mandatory licence to print money. It was cert!

Atelier Fermé fancied the second favourite. A horse called Black Op trained by Tom George. This was the established chaser with the form in the book. It had recently had a wind operation to correct a breathing irregularity and was confidently expected to return fit from its summer lay off and trounce the would be Curtis hurdler who had already displayed a tendency to back off the bigger fences in its debut run. Not a good sign in Atelier Fermé ‘s opinion! The George horse had an unfashionable jockey booked to protect its price in the market. The George stable was also low on the current form in running percentage table whereas the Curtis stable was running in the high 80s and top jockey Bowen was booked. Everything was in place to dupe the old elite and they suitably took the bait. Over 200 thousand British pounds was wagered at odds from 2.2 right down to 1.76 in the 15 minutes before the off. The members of Atelier Fermé stood the bets as the exchanges allowed them to do. They were in position to be ruined before they began if Lisnagar Oscar won. But it wouldn’t. 

And it didn’t. It backed off its fences where the great big chasing type with the wind op that was appropriately named Black Op jumped every fence like a stag. Ran from the front all the way round. Was briefly troubled by a debutante chaser who ran well on its first outing but shrugged him off easily over the last two fences. Lisnagar Oscar trailed round thirty lengths adrift in fourth place (achieved third when another debutant fell at the last) after backing off several fences when the pace of the race was upped to finishing speed.By Black Op. In control all the way and smoothly achieving the arrival of Atelier Fermé in modern European and British daily life.

They don’t advertise what they do. The clue is in the name. They are open to membership from everyone who agrees with the precept of social democracy and rejects the selfish capitalism of the past. They eschew greed and selfish indulgence. They work together to create civilised life in peace and harmony throughout the world. So people can live comfortable,peaceful and productive lives without harming anyone else.By backing winners! They have no enemies. Except the old elite that is. The guys who ordered the closing of the betting shops! It is they who remain ultimately the funders of Atelier Fermé although it is part of policy that they don’t get to know this!

Atelier Fermé. Arriving in your neighbourhood soon. If there is an election coming up near you anytime, you may want to vote for them! At the very least become a member of the new order. The political faction that saved itself and thus the world!

© Gary Boswell 2019

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