BOZmail 2nd NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY NOVEMBER 2nd  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +43.1871 points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.9518 points (+7.9518 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 44.6358 points (+36.6358 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7485 points (-0.2515 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 100/138 = 72.46%  Backs : 26/87 = 29.88%

NO BET

Not such a rollercoaster day on Sunday but LIM starts off with a small plus (and the century of profitable lays for the cycle achieved) and that will do for now. No NH qualifiers on Monday with big fields suddenly on the horizon again as with last time lockdown came along! Learned from my mistakes this time. Any lockdown funny business and I keep hands resolutely in pockets. Uncertain times ahead once more although it seems racing will continue (but they did say that last time too). The BOZ has his eye on it and will keep daily reports running. No going looking for bets this time though. Shan’t be doing that again.

Did have a look at the two LIM qualifiers at Kempton on the all weather for Monday but have decided to watch for a week or so and only use them if needed. It’ll take a week to re-gen on all weather racing. I haven’t been paying too much attention to it for the past six months. 

LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou

Soaring Glory Entered @ Exeter (Nov 3) & Newbury (Nov 5)

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame – Entered @ Exeter (Nov 3)

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Market Rasen (Nov 5)

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road – Entered @ Newbury (Nov 5)

Carroll’s Milan – Entered @ Market Rasen (Nov 5)

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Newbury (Nov 5)

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani – Entered@ Newbury (Nov 5)

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

2-22 HUNTINGDON – WENCESLAUS @ 13/2 – 0.2pt BACK

Backed @ 8.2 : Hedged @ 7.2 : P/L = 0

Not a great trade. First duff for a while. Gave myself a smidgeon to shout Wenceslaus on with and was intending to back again near the off if circumstances smelt right but the money for Bathiva (who I tried to lay last week you’ll remember) ponged too much like the Memphis Bell LIM loss and I decided to just have my smidgeon and watch. The lockdown announcement last night was in my thoughts (as was the Spitting Image episode!) and I came over all hands in pockets. My Acca was already on so decided that would do me. Turned out right to be sceptical. Wenceslaus jumped abysmally as the market had said he would. Bathiva was in a different universe. The late jockey change was also baffling. The pong made it all the way to Cumbria! Off the list for now until I hear or work out what went on.

3-58 HUNTINGDON – THE JUGOPOLIST @ 50/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 140.0 : Hedged 0.2pt @ 52.0 : P/L = +0.098pts  

This on the other hand – as intimated – was a licence to print money. Hope you managed a quid or two. Some seriously weird stuff going down on the exchanges mind. Jugo hit 200.0 on the second wave and 300.0 on the third. I nearly went in again but the rat has been smelt! He obviously wasn’t primed for the race and it may take eight or nine more runs before he is, based on previous evidence! He did complete though and the fav did run a stinker. All not yet indicating retirement and my eye stays on him. I shall look for the small field race he takes part in but still posts at monumental prices and when all eyes are swivelled elsewhere. No complaints here anyway. He was never in the race but a profit has been turned!

A 0.01pt WIN DOUBLE for the Boz also. LOST

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

****************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *