BOZmail – 2nd MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MAY 2nd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

1-15 MUSSELBURGH

Disappointing stuff again Wednesday and a mini-dip with three wrong now in the last four. Only one way to go and that’s up! And on cue, a couple that I am very keen on for Thursday plus news that our two summer jump dark horses are set to run at Hexham Saturday night. The Boz will be trekking along to see them in person. Also saw the possible Ascot Gold Cup winner and a rank outsider for the Derby in my watching on Wednesday and those that like whopping ante-post vouchers might be tempted to back Hiroshima now at 250/1! Only a Southwell minor race he won but the manner had a stamp of class to it and I won’t be surprised to see him win a good race NTO when the Derby odds will then look huge. In the maybe category. Both make the to follow list with Dee Ex Bee likely to win the Yorkshire Cup on his way to the Ascot Gold Cup on today’s Ascot trial showing.

Thursday’s LIM play is a value punt but also a form pointer to the Staggered acca Lay that I’ll be attempting later at Chelmsford (see details below). Must watch directive.

Alright Sunshine has no flat form so you could argue this is a risky race to play in with the tissue market making him a shoo-in on the basis of a couple of bumper successes that he has won hard held – one of them here at Musselburgh. Put it this way, no chance he is an 8/15 shot in my book with both the opposition having reasonable flat form and receiving 19lb from the Dalgleish inmate. Dalgleish stable also running low on the horses running to form radar and no winners from 24 in past 14 days. Doesn’t encourage 8/15 for me either. Stats on bumper winners that do well on the flat are not high and track times back this up. I’ll be surprised to see him win and I expect prices to be much different nearer the off unless the stable know something we don’t. Take an early price.

The form pointer for the staggered acca lay in the race is Hurricane Hero who is closely tied in with Tigray who runs at Chelmsford later. A win for HH will be a boost for Tigray’s chance. If I were to pick between the other two here though I would go Ellison’s Whiskey and Water but a simple lay play for me today.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on ALRIGHT SUNSHINE (around 1.6 : no greater than 2.2)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 96/135 = 71.11% :   BACKS: 22/86 = 25.58%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit – Entered for Hexham (May 4)

Opechee – Entered for Hexham (May 4) & Ayr (May 7)

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action – Entered for Hamilton (May 5)

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby (June 29)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 1)

6-20 CHELMSFORD – 0.5pt LAY on LORD LAMINGTON @ 3.0 or less

This is a second LIM that I am very keen on Thursday and whilst not quite weapons grade, not far off and a good opportunity to have a go at that Lay acca I’ve been on about for a while.

And so I end the previous winning acca sequence with the bank back at just above starting point and see if I can’t get this stream of the service purring with the thing I’m generally better at i.e. identifying lays. Acca number 9 was a successful winning double. Acca number 10 starts here.

This is a very competitive and open race with all five having excellent chance and the one I fancy least is the tissue fav Lord Lamington who carries penalties for wins in two of his last three and the form of all three races hasn’t really been boosted subsequently. Smarter was a lay for us recently and ran much better than expected. Not laying him again and he runs for us here. Tigray might have form further boosted by Hurricane Hero in the LIM if I’ve got that right and Emirates Empire would be my idea of most likely to appreciate the step up in distance from his in form yard and is fav on my tissue.

Start the new lay acca on Lord Lamington at 3.0 or less. If he goes on a price drift, however, the advice would be to abort. Wouldn’t want to be chancing him anything greater than 3.6

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast

for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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