BOZmail – 2nd MARCH

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY MARCH 2nd 2019

Received an email this morning in response to my March 1st post stating that following LIM in February had lead to a small loss. Quite disturbed by this as I am posting +1.45 on my own play figures and +1.7 on my trial BSP figures. I haven’t received the official arbiter figure yet but as my daily staking plan does rely heavily on the premise of working to achieve a monthly plus – especially through the downspells – I am keen to get to the bottom of such a variable. I accept that we all post slightly different figures depending on prices we have achieved but to be achieving a loss when I am posting a distinct positive is worrying to the extent that one of us is doing something wrong. If I am erring with the lay parameters – as is my suspicion without having yet seen evidence – I need to start correcting that asap. Keen therefore to hear from anyone else wanting to share their scores this month with me especially if you have also posted a loss. Keeping the lay score ticking over is very important to making LIM work and if I am causing us to miss successful lays by the parameters I am posting, I will certainly need to address that going forward. Cheers BOZ.

P.s. Have heard from the arbiter now who is posting around break even but has settled three Lay losers at BSP prices higher than my parameters which has caused the top heavy differential. All were backable within the parameters I set but Giancomo Casanova in particular went on an alarming SP drift so that if you did lay at that, you will be down for the month. This is a problem with LIM stats score keeping generally and the only score that actually matters is the one you post yourself. If it is radically short of that I achieved in Feb,then you haven’t worked hard enough to secure lay prices at the lower end of what was available but of course I accept that this is not possible for everyone and sometimes you have to take what you can get in order to be on. Just don’t take silly prices like the Giancomo SP because that SP made my advised stake look absurdly high and my stake parameter was important that day. He obviously did have a chance that the market chose not to reflect and you must always protect yourself from that. If in doubt don’t play but usually with prudence and dogged determination you can get on at sensible levels.

If however I have to start  stake – advising with possible worst case scenario SPs in mind, well that is just impossible in the current trading world we operate in. Your common sense must prevail as must mine. And then only our own achieved scores matter! The +1.7 BSP Monthly score I mention above does take my upper lay parameter into consideration and never settles higher than that on a loser. Nor on a winner. The winners where my parameter was not a possible play would be omitted but there were none of those in February. Every lay was achievable. This is something I am always scrupulous about because of course I play them myself. And I never take silly prices on my lays!! Sometimes I have to lay at a little higher than I’d like. But when it gets silly I stay out and admit that I’ve missed my chance.

My advice would be that you do same.

Arbiter has gone away to think about the trickiness of this. It may be that he advises that I cease keeping a score on the sheet but I have stressed how important that is to me on a daily bank management level. I need to know each day what we have achieved so that I can plan stakes for the next day. The system is very holistic and you stay ahead mainly because of the staking and to a lesser extent because of the selections. Such is LIM. What matters more to me is how you are doing which is why I have asked those who scored a minus LIM last month (not including to follow losses which are approached very differently. Much more leeway needs to be given to short term losing there) to get in touch to see if I can help advise how that loss could and should have been avoided. In general you should be ahead of the BSP score each month. I was 2 points ahead of it in December, 0.15 point behind in Jan and 0.25 point behind in February. I am having to get used to comparing my score to BSP settling as I’ve never used it before this site started. Never settle at SP full stop. Settle at what I achieve! To me it is the only thing that makes sense now. Bookmakers of course have always settled to the price struck unless they could wangle you to take SP. I wonder why they did that??!!

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-55 KELSO

This might be close between Western Rules and Knockrobin but I oppose the McCain charge again despite his wind operation and the 2lb better off at the weights that he meets Richards’ charge at for a three length defeat last time they met. Western Rules has romped in at the course since and should benefit from the step back up in trip based on breeding and will also appreciate the better ground.

Knockrobin could benefit from the wind operation of course but based on what I saw Friday, McCain’s string will take a while to recover themselves I’d say after what they’ve been through. Grand Morning is also no forlorn hope if he finally gets his chasing act together. Would be plenty good enough on hurdle form but hasn’t really fired in two starts so far over fences so is passed over as a possible value back.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on KNOCKROBIN (around 2.7 and no greater than 3.2)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 56/78 = 71.79% :   BACKS: 11/50 = 22%

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.9375 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for the Ultima (Mar 12) & The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC – Entered at Exeter (Mar 5)

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva –  Entered for Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Parlour Maid – Entered for Exeter (Mar 5)

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Exeter (Mar 5) & Fontwell (Mar 6)

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

TO FOLLOW BETS FOR SATURDAY MARCH 2ND:

2-40 NEWBURY – HAPPY DIVA – 0.1pt @ 6/1

3-10 NEWBURY – EBONY GALE – 0.1pt @ 14/1

Both of these in highly competitive Saturday races and I can’t find an enormous amount to be confident that they’ll win from race reading but both caught my eye LTO and if reproducing will give us a run for our money. Both in play trades for me. A minimum stake in view of not wanting to rack up losses in this section which is under review and may revert back as an LIM feeder only after the Cheltenham festival if score doesn’t improve before then. Wasn’t part of my original plan to include it and may revert to original idea depending on how next couple of weeks goes.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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