BOZmail – 2nd JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JULY 2nd  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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First round trades/level stakes tips at Wimbledon. 

Barbora Strycova to beat Lesia Tsurenko

Anna Friedsam to beat Margaret Gasparyan- LOST

Madison Brengle to beat Marketa Vondrousova- WON

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Hsieh Su-Wei

Yulia Putintseva to beat Naomi Osaka- WON

With less time than I’d anticipated for trading on the Wimbledon first round matches, I played a small level stakes fixed odds approach with some very small stake cross multiples so I’m sweating a bit now on Barbora Strycova on Tuesday. She was my original nap and staggered acca starter until I decided to back off official tips when I saw Strycova had retired at Eastbourne. That may have been a red herring, we shall see. Brengle was 11/2 on the exchanges before the off but I took 4/1 fixed odds. She won cosily. As did Putintseva again with some 2/1 on her. So a touch of BOZmail Rule number six again! I am certainly guilty of being over cautious at times. Hope you ignored my reticence! 

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

0.75pt LAY on SERENA WILLIAMS 

0.1pt BACK on ASH BARTY

0.1pt BACK on KAROLINA PLISKOVA

0.1pt BACK on PETRA KVITOVA

0.1pt BACK on JELENA OSTAPENKO

0.1pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA

0.1pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN

Kenin and Pliskova safely through their respective first rounds.

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

6-45 STRATFORD

Well, we did get off to a good July start even without the LIM cover. Long may it last.

I like this Novice Chase at Stratford for Tuesday. 

Despite winning the Plate on Saturday, Alan King’s stable – the jumpers in particular -running low key with no wins past fortnight and only 33% running to form. Both his at Cartmel on Sunday performed beneath expectation. So Fidux looks gettable at short odds despite his decent debut effort at Hexham. Beat Skelton’s NotwhatIam there receiving weight and has to give same this time to Skelton’s similarly rated No Hassle Hoff at a distance more likely to suit the latter.

A couple of decent hurdler debutantes as cover in Harry Fry’s stamp of a chasing type Serosevsky – who I saw at Worcester last year and is an impressive looking sort – and Henderson’s Kings Ryde who should also be watched with a view to future following if it impresses. Chance to play up some of yesterday’s winnings methinks.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on FIDUX (around 2.5 : no greater than 2.8)

0.15pt BACK on NO HASSLEHOFF

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 118/176 = 67.04% :   BACKS: 32/116 = 27.58%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars – Entered at Sandown (July 6)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 13: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start the Wimbledon effort.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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