BOZmail – 2nd JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JULY 2nd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.1482 points (+0.1482 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.121 points (+5.121 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.89 points (-0.11 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.6902 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +8.9778points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 13/19 = 68.42%  Backs : 2/7 = 28.57%

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LESS IS MORE: 

5-50 BATH

Wednesday’s Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on INFANT HERCULES (around 2.1 and as low as possible to be hedged when offered preferential odds)

Laid @ 2.22 : Hedged 0.15pt @ 3.1 : P/L = +0.097points

0.15pt LAY on NIGHT MOMENT (around 3.0 or lower if you can get it to be hedged when offered preferential odds)

Laid @ 2.4 : Hedged 0.14pt @ 2.56 : P/L = +0.0084points 

Can’t claim that as a great success despite it working out ok on Infant Hercules as neither outsider attracted any support (stable knew that and I didn’t of course) and I also forgot to mention that the way to play the Johnston horse may have been to back to lay in view of the starting price and the stable. They obviously knew their boy was going to be ok on turf and he took all the middle to late money but there was a small window I managed once I’d seen they were coming for him that allowed backing at 2.4 and hedging at 2.56. I forgot about back to lay myself when the price was 3.1. That mistake means he was mostly a break even but my lay to back still worked so long as you were on watch. Minimal stuff though and if you missed that you probably never got another chance with the way the Johnston horses run from the front.

So I’m conceding that wasn’t great and in talking to a few of you over the past few days, I’m coming to the decision that we keep to the one horse per race trade for recovery purpose if and when we need it again (done for now) and maybe also in this stretch where we await the settling down of NH racing. Watched half of Southwell as I write and whilst lockdown is written all over it still, I was probably a tad cruel calling it dogmeat racing and quite simply I am finding myself able to navigate the stables ten times more knowledgeably than I’ve been able to do with flat racing. No getting away from the fact I’m better at NH and boy am I glad to see it back. Early observation is that the Skelton yard has come back a little under the weather. That’s a big plus for us to put under our hat!

So I’ll be back in on NH racing as an LIM priority as soon as it settles down and for those of you who have been in touch about having not played since the March 17th ringfencing of the LIM official bank, I may well be restarting that again this month now based on what I’ve seen today. Another week or two maybe but before the end of July now I’m guessing (given that flat racing will also settle further in that time). In the meantime, to carry on with circumspect LIM trade advices, given that we have a plus profit situation at last in Part 2 of the 2020 cycle. Lets see if we can’t keep that inching forward in preparation for the unlocking of the official LIM gambling bank again in a week or two’s time.  

I’ve had to be creative again on Thursday with no real LIM qualifier back on the flat but it is a shortlist day so I’ve been doing the Bath card in preparation and whilst there is no obvious LIM play, I don’t think I can let the Competition price pass without a go.At 2/5 he is marvellously short allowing a standard play if that’s your ilk and a trade if you’d prefer that. There are two top of the weights sorts identified by the shortlist who will be competitive as course specialists if fit for the lay off and we can expect better than market suggests runs also from Ideal Grace and Howardian Hills albeit that the latter is held by the fav on LTO form. This is a very different sort of track contest however and also gets 6lb weight pull on LTO so a reverse would not in any way be out of the question given the shortlist course backing at Bath for the Victor Dartnall charge. Cautious play but an intriguing one and I’ll personally trade if it seems appropriate but not afraid to play traditionally either given the small liability and the slightly healthier bank position we now hold.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on COMPETITION (around 1.4 to be hedged at higher if offered and appropriate)

0.02pt BACK on HOWARDIAN HILLS(around 15.0 again to be traded if appropriate)

0.01pt BACK on IDEAL GRACE (around 41.0 again to be traded if appropriate)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (July 3) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Jaganory – Entered for Chepstow (July 3)

Waseem Faris

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Added Royal Air Force after his Yarmouth win thinking he was laid out for Saturday and then realised his entry was for the 2021 Derby!! So there you go, an ante-post advice for next June! Have done that once before on the BOZmail (Ruleroftheworld year) when it won so those who like a long distance punt might take that on board. Let me know if and when you find a price worth taking!

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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