BOZmail – 3rd JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY JULY 3rd  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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First round trades/level stakes tips at Wimbledon. 

Barbora Strycova to beat Lesia Tsurenko- WON 

Anna Friedsam to beat Margaret Gasparyan- LOST

Madison Brengle to beat Marketa Vondrousova- WON

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Hsieh Su-Wei – LOST

Yulia Putintseva to beat Naomi Osaka- WON

Second round official Wimbledon tips for Wednesday.

Margarita Gasparyan to beat Elina Svitolina @ 8/5

Veronica Kudermetova to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 7/4

0.5pt fixed odds singles. Both also suitable to trade. Both

surface related backs against the book. Gasparyan beat

Svitolina in 3 sets at Edgbaston and can repeat against

The Ukranian not in love with the surface. Wozniacki perceived

as a grass courter because of her efforts at Eastbourne but an

out and out hardcourter for me and always vulnerable on grass.

The young Kudermetova beat her convincingly at the French

Open in May. Could do same again here.

My nap and staggered acca bet would have been Pliskova to

beat Puig but 1/7 doesn’t tempt so I’ll wait another day there.

Strycova comfortably brought up the first round treble so her

Injury was indeed a red herring. Ostapenko’s headcase waywardness

however is not. She has to be left alone now until proof that she has

calmed down emerges.

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

0.75pt LAY on SERENA WILLIAMS 

0.1pt BACK on ASH BARTY

0.1pt BACK on KAROLINA PLISKOVA

0.1pt BACK on PETRA KVITOVA

0.1pt BACK on JELENA OSTAPENKO – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA

0.1pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN

Just Ostapenko flopped out. All the other five won as they should. Serena came out hitting the ball well but looked imminently gettable by anyone prepared to make her run around.

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

4-20 WORCESTER

The Vollan looks a gettable fav based on that poor transference of Southwell form theory. Well held on times by Chapmanshype,Lovato and Candy Burg making for solid LIM cover as I go for a formula that worked well for us last month. I take the McCain horse that has been getting himself fit last three runs (two on the flat) and is now down to last winning mark in a grade same as this (as opposed to the Vollan carrying a penalty and stepping up) and looks excellent value at around 11/1. I back Beach Break against the field.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on THE VOLLAN (around 2.9 : no greater than 3.4)

0.1pt BACK on BEACH BREAK

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 118/177 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 32/117 = 27.35%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars – Entered at Sandown (July 6)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 13: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start the Wimbledon effort.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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