BOZmail – 2nd JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 2nd 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-30 HEREFORD

You see what I meant about taking lay prices early on yesterday’s selection. Ebony Gale ran a smashing race after drifting like a barge pole in the betting and goes on to my to follow list after that jumping performance. Would have been an embarrassing SP lay had it won.In the West Tip colours, has the stamp of a possible National horse and certainly one to keep an eye on. Unlucky to bump into Cliffs of Dover the day the Boz’s champion hurdle horse returned to the fray!! Told you it was a watch and see day and the problems look ironed out with Bryony on board. Also back on the to follow list and watch those entries. If Champion hurdle is among them don’t be afraid to take the 100/1! Still has the class and if he’s learned to settle again as it looked, watch out Buveur D’air again! The Boz is after a double!

And so I made my perfect ten lays in a row and fair play to those asking why that wasn’t my staggered acca! Why indeed. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but laying is my forte and why not try a lay staggered acca? Well, I have and it takes a lotta lotta bottle, as Cilla would have said, by the time you get to leg 10! Not out of the bounds of possibility however and I’m game if you are. Give me a week or two to think. Wouldn’t think January an ideal time to go for it (I go into tennis mode soon now) but come February/March where my back stats are strong and we may well give it a go.

Softly,softly for the time being however as I seek to build up bookmakers winning ballast and I do know what January on the horses can be like. Take Wednesday for instance. As dreadful a day’s racing as you could imagine and haven’t even found an LIM race on the all weather that I can attack with confidence. Came back to this Novice Chase at Hereford where I think we can take on the penalised First Drift if his price isn’t too long. A shortish 9/4 third favourite on the early tissue and I’d be ok with that or a tad higher but not over 3/1 (just flashed up at 11/4 so get on early again).

Got an excellent ride from Max Kendrick when it won here last time at 25/1 and survived several mishaps to keep poking back up. That was a slow time race however and I’d expect both Go Long and Charming Zen to have too much speed for her here getting weight. The latter makes chase debut but has the best profile in the race and is the sort Olly Murphy does well with. Fehily up so we can expect a considered ride and might be my idea of the winner in a tough race to be certain of anything really. Very nearly called no play day but a small chance taken given that the odds allow.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on FIRST DRIFT

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 24.5/30 = 81.66% :  BACKS: 4/19 =21.05%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 14.75 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see changing all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play overtime.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

 

Lostintranslation ran an absolute cracker beating Defi Du Seuil and gets back on my list in boosting the La Bague au Roi form. Looks a serious Cheltenham Festival horse on the back of that which Tizzard confirmed live on air after! Now the world knows but Tizzard not known for lies and deceit! And it goes in my notebook.

Nicolas Chauvin ran no race as the market correctly forecast but I wouldn’t worry too much about that. Stays on the list to watch for an NTO when conditions are more to his liking. Ideally with Johnson back up somewhere like Wetherby. You do have to cut Moffatt some slack given what he works with but when he comes through, the price is always rewarding. And the to follow list must be played with realism. It will triumph with sensible playing and patience and also acts very much as a feeder for LIM and the accas when appropriate.

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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