BOZmail – 2nd FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 2nd 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

2-25 SANDOWN

No complaints about Friday’s play. Just got it wrong and knew less than the stable/market who were confident Grey Britain would stay. Adam Kirby negated my jockey factor too riding with that knowledge and my all weather record which was standing at 4/4 at the end of last month takes another hit and January form is also carried over into February. Need to put that right!

Fortunately back on the turf Saturday all being well and I have looked long at taking Apple’s Jade on in the Irish Champion Hurdle but ultimately think her mare’s allowance might just enable her to swing it.

So instead I come to my to follow race at Sandown where I have two and they are likely to be first and second fav. It is tight mind with Defi Du Seuil getting three pound turnaround for that defeat by Lostintranslation LTO and that ought to make it tight in the betting between the three. And although Defi has a speed angle against the other two, I do think he has shown so far that he’s gonna take a while to be a top drawer chaser and Sandown is a demanding jumping course with an uphill finish again which ought in my view to give Lostintranslation a chance to confirm form. Assuming he doesn’t go breaking holes in fences again as he did second time against La Bague au Roi. That form is represented in Ireland on Sunday and we’ll be going there for that if Tizzard’s enthusiasm for his horse is upheld here.

Kim Bailey’s Vinndication is held in very high regard my me and the man himself and will likely start favourite here. Last time I opposed a To Follow horse triggered the current sticky patch I’m in so not doing that this time. I personally think if it comes down to jumping, the Bailey horse might win. The class however rests with the other two with Lostintranslation looking more the finished chasing article at this stage. He does also have the bonus of the champ in the saddle.

Out to repair yesterday’s blip.

 

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on DEFI DU SEUIL (at around 3.25 and no greater than 4.0)

0.1pt BACK on LOSTINTRANSLATION (at best price you can get ideally above 3.0)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 40/54 = 74.07% :   BACKS: 7/32 = 21.87%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo – Entered for Carlisle (Feb 4)

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.625 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 2)

 

Awaiting the weapons grade selection to follow on from Leg 1. Will shout as soon as it appears

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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