BOZmail – 2nd FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 2nd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.196 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.049 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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LESS IS MORE: Sunday play

3-50 MUSSELBURGH

Email query received today that is worth publishing for new members too. Always happy to answer questions as always.

Hi Boz

Just to clarify – when you say starting bank of 20 points – what does 1pt represent? Is it for instance £20 so starting bank would be £400. Plus for the lay today you say 0.2pt, does this mean – (with the above scenario) one fifth of a point – ie £4?

My reply:

Bank size is your domain. Play with what you've got is the advice. If you've got £400 play to £400. But stick to it. Until the profit is up at 50% of bank i.e. total of 30 points including starting 20 – which is when you can start increasing your stake. But consistency is the key. And you know me now.Caution the watchword until such time as you are playing with a shedload of bookmakers money.

Your maths is accurate. 0.2pt is a fifth of a point so a £4 lay from a £400 bank. Very cautious start as I want to get into bookmakers money asap and these are tough cards at the moment. Marathon not a sprint. We've got all year. Important not to start chasing our tail.

Proper banks are kept purely for purpose. So don't dip into them for other expenses. That's a crucial aspect of bank management.

Hope that helps. Good luck to us both today.

BOZ

And I weren’t joking about tough cards. Same again Sunday although I should at this point also draw attention for new members to BOZmail Rule No.6 below as you’ll have seen that two of the three Nicholls runners I mentioned for Sandown won (tight tussles with the fav in all three races) and those of you doing the Nicholls Lucky 15 on them and Southfield Stone had a nice return (60/1 treble)! There is one BOZmail member from last year who has admitted to backing every horse I ever mention so long as it is odds against! He did very well on Saturday. Much better than me. I played safe and have no regrets. The one race a day is there for a reason. Best way I ever found to long term health as a gambler. Just a question of picking the right race each day! I won, so I’m happy. That’s always been me – a lifelong sufferer of Murphys Law!

Tough cards again Sunday where I go even more conservative than I was Saturday in the 3-50 at Musselburgh. I do like the race though and have had fun analysing it. Just difficult to attack it with any kind of confidence this time of year. Used to it though. Happy to stay conservative until I’m playing with a stash of bookies cash as I wrote above.

This race revolves around Hastrubal and those who joined me for the paddock watch at Sedgefield on Jan 10 know all about him! Looked nothing special in the paddock and hosed in by 22 lengths!! If he runs like that again here he’ll probably win but there are several reasons to doubt it and he’s very short at 11/10 and worth a modest oppose with bank management still in mind.

First thing to say is that at Sedgefield, the one that did impress in the paddock – Micky Hammond’s Don’tdelay – gave the fourth fence the sort of clout that demolishes houses and ran most of the race out the back recovering from that before running on at the end. Was 22 lengths second because of that. Take a look at the race replay on Attheraces and you’ll smile at the horlicks and also see two other things pertinent to this race. 1/ That Hastrubal could be called the winner 3 or 4 furlongs out as he was the only horse in the field travelling on the ground. What I call dead ground that day.

Never in the formbook (at bookmakers’ insistence??) so we never know which horses properly act on it.Not many do. What is dead ground? Answer: wet ground that has thawed after a frost. Took me ten years watching at Fontwell before I understood what it was and how it skews all form study. But there you are. If you didn’t know about dead ground, you do now. Not heavy and Not soft. More like sticky or gluey. Loads of horses simply trail in 60 lengths adrift in it. The odd one who runs without it making a difference to him. That’s Hastrubal. 2/ He showed very improved form made to look even more so by those facts. The time however was not special. Check that out. Carrying 9lb extra for that win and on decent ground at Musselburgh which is a very different sort of track. Far too short for me at 11/10. Nortonthorpelegend carries 6lb for his win and of the front two, I prefer him but it looks an outsider’s race to me and I was torn between Achill Road Boy – who hasn’t won in an age and is held by the Menzies horse but could just have his day – and the Irish dark horse Diggin Deep who is hard to assess given that he runs like many another Irish horse in England. Entered in races designed to bamboozle the racegoer into thinking they’ve no chance. Different distances all the time. Lots of races in the form which if you’d paddock watched, you’d have laid because they weren’t fit. The Irish way. A deflector around every corner. On his best form he can win and maybe by 22 lengths. Will he show it? I’m not betting on it!

Gangster is also a very hard horse to assess for different reasons but travels a long way for a canny stable (had a big winner on Saturday) and he interests me simply by being there. No idea what to expect without a paddock watch and even then don’t know the horse so not sure what I’m looking for. Just not gonna be surprised if he wins either.

The surprise winner will be Hastrubal so he’s a lay but bank management and time of year dictate caution still. Until we’ve put a winning run together, we play just with what we won on Saturday.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on HASTRUBAL (around 2.1 ; upper value parameter 2.6)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 1/1 = 100%  Backs: 0/0

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered at Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Mares Hurdle Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Saint De Reve

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW TRADE on SATURDAY:

4-10 SANDOWN – AMBION HILL @ 6/1 – 0.15pt BACK

(Backed @ 14.0 : hedged 0.2pts@ 6.8)  P/L = 0.049 pts

Saw 20/1 around and what a right drift that was. I backed in increments and averaged 14.0 and had a 0.2pt hedge on throughout the race @ 6.8 which got hedged as he travelled like a dream half a mile out under a motionless Jonjo ride. I thought I’d made a mistake leaving the hedge on as he cruised up toward a rowing along leader but the prudence of the early in the cycle proved correct as he found nought when let down.

Market drift had been correct and either the ground didn’t suit or he’s badly handicapped or he’s not as good as some of the others on the Cat Tiger formline! Iconic Muddle didn’t run too bad. 

And there you see why I trade the to follows.Made a profit (albeit miniscule) on a loser.

Discretion is always there for when you actually fancy the win. This was mainly speculative as flagged up by the market drift so I always play trade on those. And I will give Ambion Hill another chance. Needs to come down in grade or handicap but travels well in his races and I’ll be surprised if he’s a Tizzard duff. 

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

News in that Lostintranslation has had his palate cauterised which I think is slightly different to a wind op. Breathing problem reportedly improved so no change for me in fancying a big run and it should ensure the price stays advantageous!

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. 

The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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