BOZmail – 2nd August

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY AUGUST 2nd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

5-30 MUSSELBURGH

Above tries again to carry the penalty for his debut win and was fairly unlucky not to succeed LTO but this is a potentially tougher race up a notch in class against Saint of Katowice who has been runner up to two very smart types, the first of whom – Volatile Analyst – ran a cracking race in a Group 2 at Goodwood on Thursday. Smart Form. Getting weight, Saint of Katowice is poised to serve it up to the short priced fav over a distance he has already performed well at. Above steps up to it and whilst that shouldn’t be a problem on breeding, he is unproven at it and thus even money or shorter? Lay not back for me. Mark Johnston provides good LIM cover with newcomer Um Elnadim and the smart new jockey on board – C Y Ho. He has already made the kind of mark Deirdre made at Goodwood today getting catapulted on to the BOZ list of flat horses to follow. Sensational last furlong performance under Oisin Murphy.

More modest fare at Musselburgh but there is a feeling in my water that Saint Of Katowice might prove quite smart.

Put my back into getting the month off to another good start and got a bonus with the late jockey change on Data Protection as champion elect Danny Tudhope’s strength got him home despite a determined effort from Rampant Lion. Odds on fav nowhere.

Looks a similar possible on Friday’s play and if they switch Tudhope on to any mount from now on, you can consider it a tip or a strengthening of the chance of the horse.

From over 100 fewer rides, he is neck and neck with Oisin and looks set to make a concerted effort to be the champ or at the very least take it to the wire.  

Recommendations:

0.35pt LAY on ABOVE (around 2.0 or shorter : no greater than 2.5)

0.2pt BACK on SAINT OF KATOWICE (around 3.25 or greater)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 138/203 = 67.98% :   BACKS: 42/139 = 30.21%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee 

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Lepoardstown (Aug 8)& Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You

Charle Brune – Entered for Galway (Aug 4)

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars – Entered for Doncaster (Aug 3)

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Chester (Aug 5)

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Will shout if or when another starter emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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