BOZmail 2nd AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY AUGUST 2nd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.8574 points (+0.8574 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.6153 points (+6.6153 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +6.1587 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.4463 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 33/43 = 76.74%  Backs : 3/17 = 17.64%

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LESS IS MORE: 

4-10 LEICESTER

Ok, my strop is over! And I’ve had time to remember the plan I foolishly abandoned on the final day in July. Another of the 2020 mistakes I’ve made I’m afraid. Sat out Saturday as my punishment!

Back to being a trader when the cards are flat only (still not daring to touch Ireland) with the real LIM programme – gambling version – reserved for the jumps only until further notice and thus restarting on Tuesday August 4th at Southwell. I will be trying to make August a proper LIM month in these wacky times.

Happy to put a few preparatory sheckels in the pot however to get August underway and these next two days will be STRICTLY trade only days.

This first race has a lay trade to back on MUSICALITY who is in very short as 6/4 fav and looks sure to drift from that on handicap debut. Not particularly leniently marked for the first handicap outing and up in class to boot. Badri is my preferred of the top two. But the value in the race – and worth a back to lay – is the topweight and class of the race Mrs Bouquet who has looked regressive in outings so far but is down in class now and from the Johnston yard where you know there is canny plotting going on and a bad run of form for a horse is never all it seems. The booking of Ryan Moore takes the eye and both are early takes to hedge back as soon as preferential odds are offered. You might reserve a smidgeon to play the back in running based on my race read but The Boz is here taking no liberties with the flat and desires only the showing of a greened profit.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on MUSICALITY (around 2.5 to be hedged as appropriate when preferential odd are on offer)

0.075pt BACK on MRS BOUQUET (around 7.5. Take best price you can get and hedge accordingly at preferential odds)

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Malotru 

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat – Entered at Stratford (Aug 6)

Beholden – Entered at Stratford (Aug 6)

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic – Entered at Newton Abbot(Aug 5)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love – Entered at Newton Abbot(Aug 5)

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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