BOZmail – 29th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.4067 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: NO PLAY DAY

NO PLAY on the limited LIM possibles on Sunday. Profit protection day. Bank management the reason why I don’t do level stakes for those who’ve asked and the single most important factor in keeping LIM profits always rolling forward even during the downturns. 

Starting a staggered acca and having one more trade on Kaizer instead on Sunday (see below).

Final September LIM on Monday. Shortlist meeting at Newton Abbot to look forward to providing it beats the weather! September nearly done with so we can start looking to good and positive NH profits in October. September always an LIM trial and we did ok in that 9 day spell from 13th to 21st to do a £300+ turnaround in the P/L score even if we didn’t quite end with all of it still in the bank!

Saturday pick still to run.

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on HOLY KINGDOM (around 2.0 : no greater than 2.3)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

18th:    -0.385 (-1.1725) Lay @ 2.14 : Back @ 28.0

19th:    +1.595 (+0.4225) Lay @ 2.28 : Back @ 10.0

20th:    +0.245 (+0.6675) Lay @ 2.38

21st:     +0.527(+1.1945) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 4.8

22nd:    -0.2 (+0.9945) Back @ 4.0

23rd:     NO PLAY DAY

24th:     -0.392 (+0.6025) Lay @ 2.96

25th:     +0.245(+0.8475) Lay @ 3.05

26th:      -0.1 (+0.7475) Back @ 9.6

27th:      +0.047(+0.7945) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 5.9

28th:

29th:      NO PLAY DAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 164/250 = 65.6% :   BACKS: 48/170 = 28.23%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.96 points. 

Staggered Acca No.20 (leg 1):

2-30 EPSOM – Kings Caper @ Evens – 0.25pt BACK

Got to give weight but looks tough enough and well poised to do so now stepped up in trip (looks likely to go further) and against two stepping up in class. Versatile sort.   

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer  

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

HORSE TO TRADE/FOLLOW on SATURDAY:

3-00 NEWMARKET – MUM’S TIPPLE @ 11/4 – 0.1pt BACK

(Backed before the off for 0.1pt @ 4.0 – hedged in running 0.2pt LAY @2.0)

I consider a tenner profit either way a real result in a race like that! Hope you did as well with it. I actually didn’t fancy Mum’s Tipple at all by the off especially after Siskin played up. Did look out of his depth on paper and needed to be the next Frankel -as he looked LTO – to win this. No dump spotted before the off so trading was indeed the way to go. You saw from the way the race run why 2.0 got offered. Just a small chance Mum’s Tipple would step up the class gap but with hindsight and the years of experience it was a huge ask. Had I not been trading I might have taken the 2.0 lay in running anyway. No way I’d have been offering it! Just heard I lost half my tenner to the rule 4 though. Hey ho. 

HORSE TO TRADE/FOLLOW on SUNDAY:

5-25 MUSSELBURGH – KAIZER  @ 5/2 – 0.1pt BACK

Same again with this. They persevere again on the flat and he’s likely to run from the front so back before off at best price and hedge in running. Last chance on the flat for me though in this his easiest encounter. He’ll stay on my winter jumps list whatever however. Much more impressed with him over hurdles I was.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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