BOZmail 29th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 29th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +27.0956 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.5581 points (+5.5581 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 30.523 points (+22.523 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 82/115 = 71.30%  Backs : 21/70 = 30%

1-10 BANGOR

 I don’t particularly like the price of The Butcher Said and a good market watch recommended to get as good an odds against price as you can get. Can’t go against the to follow candidate however who ran an excellent race against Longhouse Sale LTO and is now up to his preferred three miles again. That form got boosted on Monday with Scardura’s win at the Abbot and maybe I’ll be as wrong about the price on this one as I was on Pingshou (only in the right direction!). I had to take some of my lay on Pingshou in running such was the drift on him pre race and even then had to average out at a higher than required 5.1. Not one of my greater LIM calls but I did at least get the race read right and Scardura did win doing hand springs. Onward and Upward! 

Back to Bangor where we may get some play in the price on the The Butcher with chase debutant Cool Destination being touted by the pundits. It should come down to jumping however where I think the Murphy charge will have too much for them. I won’t say a good thing again as that seriously jinxed Hiconic the other day. Back only for the LIM on Tuesday however.

Recommendation:

0.15pt BACK on THE BUTCHER SAID (around 2.1 and higher than that if you can get it)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1         (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

22nd: NON RUNNER

23rd: NO BET

24th: +0.147 (+0.6671) Lay @ 3.0

25th: +0.098 (+0.7651) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 55.0

26th:  -0.15   (+0.6151) Back @ 2.0

27th: NO BET

28th: +0.196 (+0.8111) Lay @ 5.1

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY THREE)

Well I did say those bankers weren’t certs and that we should see the lie of the land before wading in. Things started ok on Sunday with a smart trade win against the book for Daria Gavrilova. She plays Bouchard next and that will be a match to watch.

Gavrilova is on my outsiders list for the event along with Garcia and Swiatek who have started well. Misses Puig and Kuznetsova didn’t. They did that thing you see in lots of women’s tennis matches. They threw a strop and combined it with throwing in the towel! Both played abysmally. This is a factor you have to get used to in following women’s tennis. Some players much more so than others are prone to it. Another argument for the trading aspect of our game. We move Heather Watson into that now as it would be the icing on the cake if she was to win her match when the two shorty bankers didn’t even bother to try! That said Sara Errani did play very well. She is also on my radar for the tournament next few rounds and maybe as a flier outright bet too. Doing the sweep tonight and we’ll see if she makes it into the portfolio. Halep and Serena both had minor early wobbles with the surface before sailing through. Don’t really see Halep struggling with it too much. It did rain a lot mind prior to that Errani game. May be the case that the historic clay courters like Errani do have some say in how this event turns out.

Second trade on Zhang also went against the book as predicted to keep the trades the thing to be on so far at Roland Garros. The bankers not so good. Rest of the first round matches on Tuesday with the long awaited Ostapenko up first at 10am UK time. A don’t miss event! Heather Watson comes soon after and the Pegula and Doi trades will finish the first round off for us. I’ll post the second round bets tomorrow and may well also start adding to my outrights portfolio. Tig is playing as I write and is a set up v Voegele. Off to shout her home!

I’ve settled the trades on this sheet as I played them and have posted the fixed odds scores in brackets below to make a comparison on whether trades or fixed odds wins out in the first round haul.

Busy day on Tuesday with four tennis trades and three horses to follow. Good Luck!

BOZ

FIRST ROUND BETS @ ROLAND GARROS

Bankers:

Monica Puig to beat Sara Errani @ 2.32 – LOST

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.67 – LOST

Heather Watson to beat Fiona Ferro @ 5.5

3 x 0.05pt WIN DOUBLES – 1 x 0.05pt WIN TREBLE . Total Spend = 0.2pts – LOST

First round trades or value bets against the book:

0.1pt BACK Heather Watson to beat Fiona Ferro @ 5.5

0.1pt BACK Shaui Zhang to beat Madison Keys @ 3.2

Backed @ 3.4 : Hedged 0.2pts @ 1.55 : P/L = +0.1274pts (+0.22)

0.1pt BACK Misaki Doi to beat Petra Martic @ 6.2

0.1pt BACK Jessica Pegula to beat Aryna Sabalenka @ 3.05

0.1pt BACK Daria Gavrilova to beat Dayana Yastremska @ 4.6 – WON

Backed @ 5.5 : Hedged 0.2pts @ 1.91 & 0.1pt @ 1.08 : P/L = +0.2548pts (+0.36)

Hedges taken at 5-2 first set & 5-3 match point second set.

1 pt LAY Jelena Ostapenko v Madison Brengle @ 1.3   

The lay on Ostapenko is the nap. Those yoyo trade games where you back each player as she holds the dominance and switch as it changes each time during the match are where the real profits in tennis betting (any betting?) can be made. Ostapenko’s price is very short so no huge liability or loss if she does play one of her rare straight set dominant matches. Brengle is not a clay surface player so that is a maybe. She comes in good form from the US however and won’t need to do much to set the Ostapenko collywobbles a quivering!

Of the others, I love the way the terrier that is Misaki Doi plays. No-one better at court coverage and damp clay might suit her. She took a set off Osaka at Flushing Meadows you’ll remember. Martic might play through but is also a hot and cold performer who can quickly get into the doldrums about her game when being challenged. The Martic v Ostapenko match at 2019 Edgbaston was the yoyo match of all time! Doi is a value price at 6.0.

Outrights Portfolio:

0.1pt BACK Patricia Maria Tig @ 450.0   

That’s my stab at a longshot outright winner before the tournament begins. And it is a stab. I shall develop the portfolio more as we go on. The player in question is very left field but a recent mother and won her first WTA title in the run up. Absolute clay courter who plays sublime drop shot spin and moonball tennis. Could easily be played through by the power brigade but my idea – without knowing – of someone whom the seriously damp courts might suit. I’m expecting to see some slow tennis from what they are saying and she may be a master of that. Current form is good and the motherhood bit might be a mental inspirer. It has worked for Azarenka and Serena too. If she wins 2020 Roland Garros, I shall claim it as my greatest tip ever!

There won’t be another tipster in the world proposing her I fancy. Just as there wasn’t when Schiavone won! Tig’s draw looks ok. First game she can win and then some sticky young clay courters whom she may or may not out think. Then Muguruza and Sabalenka in the top half of her quarter. Will need her guile against them. But we’ll see. It is a hunch and once every five years or so, one of these comes off!!

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting too remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required here!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.2pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +0.3822pts

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River – Entered at Ffos Las (Oct 1)

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered at Ffos Las (Oct 1) & Hexham (Oct 2)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly – Entered at Warwick (Oct 1) & Hexham (Oct 2)

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY:

4-00 BANGOR – SAMSONS REACH @ 12/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Playing this as a back not a trade. Still don’t understand what was going on LTO on the flat. But this is a plot horse and this is the race I would have expected a targeted shot at. Good claiming jockey booked and that effort behind Bannixtown gives hope for this. The transfer from Richard Price might have changed this horse but that form at Hereford a while back is definitely good enough to give him at least a place chance here. When he’s ridden to win however, that is what he tends to do.

4-10 SEDGEFIELD – SPORTING PRESS @ 22/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are on offer.

I did say this one was crossed off but out again immediately and at a big price in a race he could win on best form. Second time after wind op so the stable may know something about the LTO that we don’t. I smell a plot so I’ll play small and watch the market religiously to see how it reacts. The recommendation is a trade but if you get the chance to leave some profit in the pot for another 1.01 play, that might be worthwhile just in case. In general however, it is just a pre race paper trade to make whatever profit you can get. I only get ambitious if I start to see something to suggest going gung ho might pay dividends. After Pisgah Pike, there is some scope now to get more adventurous and take the odd risk when conditions suggest it.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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