BOZmail – 29th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY OCTOBER 29th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.9887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.236 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

1-30 CATTERICK

Afraid I was just plain wrong on Monday or the ground had dried significantly as Chateau Robin ran comfortably and Ettila de Sivola went out like a light and the vagaries of the weather in this game are sometimes a real bugger. With hindsight the clue was probably in the jockey booking and Richards at Ayr is more of a deal than I allowed for so a real bad pick by me which I have taken to heart as the October recovery dangles on a precipice again now. My confidence has been pranged.

You have to get straight back on the bike again though after a fall and despite being a flat race on heavy ground, I don’t feel too bad about the day’s only LIM qualifier as First Flight is value and as a course and distance winner against two who must carry penalty for winning LTO in Bo Samraan and Where’s Jeff, there is a good LIM feel to it. Ellison yard in tremendous fettle whilst Johnston yard is not so that looks the way to play with time and ground preferences supporting it. Just that worry that ground is drying quickly again though and with bank management and profit protection very much in mind, I stake very cautiously once more.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on BO SAMRAAN (around 3.0 : no greater than 3.6)

0.1pt BACK on FIRST FLIGHT 

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 180/275 = 65.45% :   BACKS: 52/187 = 27.80%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

22nd:  +0.196 (+2.962) Lay @ 1.8

23rd:   +0.146 (+3.108) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 4.2

24th:   +0.196 (+3.304) Lay @ 4.3

25th:   -0.092 (+3.212) Lays @ 1.96 & 2.36 : Back @ 15.0

26th:   -0.18 (+3.032) Lay @ 2.2

27th:   +0.094 (+3.126) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 4.0

28th:   -0.555 (+2.571) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 5.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi Entered for Wetherby (Nov 2)

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 1)

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra – Entered for Fakenham (Oct 30)

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus – Entered for Stratford (Oct 31) & Uttoxeter (Nov 1)

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 1)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa

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NH TO FOLLOW HORSE AT WEXFORD:

3-45 RAYA TIME @ 9/2 – 0.5pt BACK – LOST

(Backed @ 5.5 : Hedged out @ 3.1) = P/L : 0

Nah. Ran with the choke out. They never win. Took the hint and hedged whilst I still could. Scratched from to follow and the second thing I got wrong on Monday. Bad day at the office.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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