BOZmail 29th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 29th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 113/160 = 70.62%  Backs : 32/100 = 32%

1-28 LEICESTER

My appetite for Sunday’s fare is pretty slim after the ground muddles me again and looks the big issue in this one again on Sunday. Chef de Troupe looks an odds on shot to take on because of a recent preference for running on better ground although there is evidence in his old French form that he’ll be ok on softer. Pipe’s Paricolor looks a safer bet however under the stewardship of the excellent Fergus Gillard getting 8lb and on ground he prefers at a course and distance he has prevailed at before. But with seven of the last eleven LIMs wrong, I am on a bit of a losing streak despite a couple of decent winners woven in to the streak. Conservative staking paid dividends yesterday and looks the call again today until I manage to regain my consistency.

Very much a month of two halves so far and therefore looks to be a case of hanging on to what we won in the first half as much as we can! 

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on CHEF DE TROUPE ( around 1.8. May well be worth taking an early price at around that mark)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous – Entered for the Stayers hurdle (Mar 18)

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Ayr (Nov 30)

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered for King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Champion Hurdle

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) – Entered for Southwell (Dec 1)

Summerville Boy – Entered for the Stayers Hurdle (Mar 18)

Ga Law

Hitman

First Flow – Entered for Tingle Creek,Sandown (Dec 5)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill

Floressa

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-10 NEWBURY – MRS HYDE @ 9/4 – 0.5pt BACK – 3rd

Backed @ 4.0 : Hedged @ 3.2 : P/L = 0

Having got a good back price, I decided to run Mrs Hyde as a free bet with the option to trade in running if she got involved in a close finish. Her job was more to get the each way treble off to a good start and she did that ok I think. There is no crabbing the winner who simply dominated and made the weight concession pay. Mrs Hyde did move into the race in her usual way but a combination of the weight and the extra final half furlong worked against her I think. That and perhaps not ideal track or ground. Held the winner on Kempton collateral form and Mrs Hyde will I think want that quick track over two miles and this shows her just below Championship standard I’d say.

Shame. But she did get the each way treble off to a good start! Arguably jockey gave her too much to do and I’d want her usual jockey back NTO. She does stay on the list though with that caveat in place. It was a decent enough effort and scope for more successes I’d say.

2-05 NEWCASTLE – RIBBLE VALLEY @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 3rd

Backed @ 20.0 : hedged 0.2pt @ 8.4 : P/L = +0.098points

Well, the drifting like a barge pole on the exchanges before the off suggests something was amiss and definitely ran flat and jumped poorly. Basically had trouble going the championship pace again which suggests another just below top class. Or maybe needs further? Did stay on and got help with Silver Streak being run out to make the place thanks to those kindly bookmakers at Betfair paying out on the third! The acca is thus still alive going into Pisgah Pike who they are backing. Let’s see if we get a change of luck! No crabbing Epatente. She’s sensational and it’s a bit of an insult that they give her a 7lb sex allowance!

2-25 NEWBURY – PISGAH PIKE @ 18/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 5th

Backed @ 22.0 : hedged 0.175pt @ 12.0 : P/L = +0.0735points

And the answer is no. Not a change of luck! Arguably Pisgah Pike’s jockey guilty of being too far back again as per Mrs Hyde. Not a good idea generally at Newbury.

So got involved in the melee at the second last when the race got suddenly rough in behind the three who had broken away. Pisgah Pike a major sufferer who still ran on but also put in a poor leap again at the last which put paid to any each way chance.

More evidence for why I trade these days! Showing a profit on the day therefrom despite it very much not going our way!

So each way treble it is for me. 0.01pt = Total spend of 0.02pts – LOST

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

21st:   – 0.329  (+3.266) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 4.5

22nd:  – 0.174  (+3.092) Lay @ 2.16

23rd:   +0.6566 (+3.7486) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 3.8

24th:   -0.318  (+3.4306) Lay @ 2.06

25th:   +0.7984 (+4.229) Lay @ 1.9 : Back @ 13.0

26th:   NO BET

27th:   -0.315    (+3.914) Lay @ 3.1

28th:   -0.23      (+3.684) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @11.0

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +50.3707points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.5868 points (+11.5868 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.7244 points (+40.7244 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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