BOZmail – 29th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MARCH 29th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

NO PLAY DAY

The time between the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree is often a low key,sparse time but I don’t call no play day lightly or often. I went through the equine flu break without a day off. I like to keep at least LIM ticking over to keep me oiled and in the groove. Some days you just gotta accept there’s nothing doing and that the wise play is keeping hands in pockets. I’ve worked really hard to find something for Friday but the only UK jumps qualifier is another Hunter Chase and features Marinero again. I got yesterday plain wrong and this one looks a hose in for the fav. Except for Marinero again who could do anything and isn’t to be relied upon as he showed today. No idea whether he will turn up tomorrow. Didn’t get much of a run so he might. But jumped so bad, he’ll need two extra legs to win Friday.

The only home qualifier on the flat is at Dundalk and is a total guesswork race. I could make a guess but everyone knows that is sure way to losing if you do it too often.I try hard never to do it.

There are two handicap chases at Fontwell with seven runners in and that’s where I’ve done my hard work but not managed to unravel either. The fav is a probable winner in the first and Cybalko is a maybe lay in the second but a bit long priced and could easily drift. Very open race in any case if you take him out. Can’t make my mind up about him so inclined to stay out of that one too.

Scoured the US racing but Penn and Turfway tonight. Neither tracks I like to play at. Poor fare. Not going there. Never good to force a bet for the sake of it. So no play.

I even had a staggered acca first leg lined up for Thursday and Friday and neither of those made it across the line either. Thursday was to follow horse Return Ticket who looked to have it to do with double penalty so I swerved him despite really rating him as a horse to follow. Continue so to do. Was an easy profit trade play for those keeping going with that and very,very nearly pinched it. I did think he was on to win two from home as he had the massive Sue Smith gamble held. Just nutted by another good one carrying less weight. Return Ticket set to be as good as Waiting Patiently once he goes chasing.

Friday’s weapons grade pick was the Philip Hobbs thing in the 3-15 at Fontwell but is 1/4. I’d been hoping for evens as I don’t rate him a definite but a likely given connections,form and calibre of opposition. But not a proven horse so 1/4  is dreadful value.

Nope a no play day. I’ll take the opportunity to post my recently written piece about avoiding SPs instead. Any comments or questions it raises can be addressed to my email address: garyboswell@ hotmail.com.

March remains in decent shape with still two days to go to have a bash at targets and with a 20:8 winning day ratio this month, wise move is to accept a break even day!

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

23rd:    -0.66 (+7.9285) LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 34.0

24th:    +0.596(+8.5245) LAY @ 2.5 : BACK @ 4.02

25th:    +0.24 (+8.7645) LAY @ 1.99

26th:     +0.09 (+8.8545) LAY @ 4.4 : BACK @ 4.2

27th:     +0.539(+9.3935) LAY @ 1.6

28th:     -0.336 (+9.0575) LAY @ 2.12

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 74/104 = 71.15% :   BACKS: 17/66 = 25.75%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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OUT OF YOUR CONTROL.

In the same 2nd of February race at Sandown that Defi Du Seuil’s Cheltenham chance was flagged up by his battling win over Lostintranslation, the lay system that I run threw up a stark reminder how the supposed mecca that is Betfair SP still has to be treated with caution – particularly when used in conjunction with laying. A few of those who follow my tips came a cropper because I had failed to warn them of the dangers – largely because in my own betting for many years now I have scrupulously avoided ever taking SP on any wager and I had thus missed how following my staking advices could lead you innocently toward a seriously bad value bet.  

The circumstances were thus. I had posted my advice the night before the race as normal – based on the first issue of bookmaker’s tissue prices in which Defi Du Seuil was priced at 9/4 joint second favourite with Lostintranslation and behind Kim Bailey’s Vinndication which was initial 2/1 favourite. My reading of the race incorrectly made Defi Du Seuil third best in the finding the likely winner stakes (a mistake I sadly repeated at the Festival – some people never learn!) and calculated a lay price parameter that I considered it safe to lay the Phillip Hobbs charge within which was between 3.25 and 4.0 and a staking level of 0.3 points stake. I always calculate the lays as bets rather than the maximum liability I suggest you undertake both for ease of operation and because the liability is always calculated as a fluid part of the holistic bank management I use on the system – attempting to drive the profits gradually but continually forward whilst always minimising any risk of taking the bank into any kind of losing streak. It’s all pretty solid and working from three years of developmental practice proven to work but involving a premise which I hadn’t realised was a fundamental part of it i.e. that you always secured your price when you placed your bet – never leaving yourself open to any kind of calamity that an SP return could bring.

Might not sound much of a calamity that Defi Du Seuil was returned the winner at a Betfair SP of 5.06 but it caused a lot of hiatus among customers who had plonked for the SP option when unable to get inside the 3.25 to 4.0 parameter at point of placing bet and were thus faced with a full loss at the extreme parameter and thus much worse off than those who had either got in early or worked to achieve the lesser price. 3.25 had been available fairly extensively for a few hours but disappeared overnight as the market started to favour Lostintranslation and drifted Defi out continually in the lead up to the race.

The worse bit for me was that those caught by it (and thus standing to win nearly 50% less than us aswell should I prove to be correct in getting Defi beaten) didn’t flag it up at the time it occurred and I innocently went through the rest of February planning my bank management figures, that are so crucial to getting staking advices right in the system, based on recovering a loss that was at the extreme end of what I was allowing for and presenting you with nothing like the returns if it won that I had computed as part of my bank management plan. Might not sound like a big deal to you but it sure is to me. We each choose how we place our bets but part of why I’m out here as a tipster is to preach the gospel according to value betting. I do not like the thought of my tips being used to place bad bets that favour that horror of an enemy – the licensed bookmaker! Betfair never used to be one of those. Ever since it got its licence, it has had to be watched, the same as all the others. And I’ve been a tad lapse in my warning people on that score.

This taking Betfair SP on a lay also happened adversely to a lesser extent on two more occasions in the month and so where I ended up a difficult month a hard worked and earned 1.45 points up, several of my followers were reporting themselves between 0.4 and 0.6 points down. Two points may not sound a lot but we play small points bank but high stakes due to the consistency and the caution of the system overall so it was actually a big deal for me especially as if I had known about it, I could have adjusted later staking advices accordingly to ensure sufferers didn’t end the month in the red. I don’t like anyone ever ending up with a minus figure. Both I and the system take it as a personal failure!

All this because I had failed to allow for the strong differentials SP returns can create. I had known Defi Du Seuil was an ISP of 7/2 but hadn’t checked to see the Betfair one a fair bit worse. Again based on the fact I never use SPs and had forgotten to warn others why. I didn’t even know properly how betfair SPs on lays work. I felt guilty despite the fact that I had placed a ceiling parameter of 4.0 on the lay price. I had forgotten some might not be in tune with how an SP can sometimes be a lot worse than you expect. That they don’t even work how you expect them to! The website settling adjudicator has had to educate me on that score. Because I hadn’t used them I had made assumptions about how they worked. The reality is even worse than I was imagining! What actually happens if you can’t get your bet on at 0.3pt stake between the parameters of 3.25 and 4.0 (or preferably lower) is that when you click the settle at SP button it takes your liability not your stake as the instruction as it knows you can cover this in your account balance (whereas some gross inflation of the price might mean you didn’t have enough to settle your loss at 0.3pt stake) but by implication, you are then agreeing to a bet at a lower stake (but the same liability). One that you did not post. One that I most certainly did not recommend. My advice said 4.0 upwards was a bad price at 0.3pts. And so it is to any stake. It doesn’t get better because you lose same but win less. That is obviously bad value. Those who did do this option were settled at 5.06 price with a stated liability of maximum 0.9points and thus had it won, would have returned 0.1778 points profit less commission. Instead of the 0.294 points (after commission) that I computed for.

I don’t know about you but I call that Betfair taking the piss. Creating a bet option for addicts. For those who must get their bet on at all costs no matter whether it is good or bad value.

If you have missed the price, you must bite the bullet. That skews my figures as a tipster but is very important for you as a gambler and in this case would have meant you were up 1.2 points as you didn’t suffer the fact that Defi won! There is always a silver lining!!

Betfair has been taking advantage of less experienced punters. Hoping they won’t notice the liberty. If you are one of those taken advantage of because I was lax in advising you on the dangers of taking SP, I wholeheartedly apologise. And I’m warning you now.

So why have I never used SPs? Well that’s partly why. It’s not only on lays either. A bet on Tombstone at Leopardstown a month later was placed at 2.08 to win as part of the stock exchange style market fluctuations I watch constantly before I place any bet these days. The ISP wasn’t far away on that one. It returned 10/11 but the Betfair SP – supposedly the value way to bet SP posted an inexplicable 1.46 on the board I was checking at the time. That has since been amended and returns likewise I am told. But that kind of lack of trust in your bookmaker and the need to check everything they do to make sure they ain’t swinging one on you is why I always take a price at time of bet. The exchanges leave you totally in control of that. The SP button is for those who can’t be bothered or are unable to devote the time to necessary observation of market development.  The mathematical formula Betfair use for their SP is obtainable but not the market figures they use to determine it. They claim it will outscore the ISP on 90% of occasions (but this is bad for layers of course taking lay SPs because that means only 10% of the time are they outscoring high street layers). Why was Tombstone that low? Maybe like a Totepool bet can be, the figures were unusually out of synch with the on course bookmakers of the day who must have not been doing much of their hedging thereon. Or it was an error later corrected. Neither is good. The main reason I never use them is simply that. Because I dislike the idea of being out of control of my bet. I like to know how much I’m staking and how much I’ll win or lose when I stake. If I went in to a shop to purchase something I wouldn’t want to be in the situation that what I was charged for it was in the control of some mystical body that were not answerable to me. I make my decision whether I buy or not based on the price asked. Not acceptable that that might be more than I was expecting and that there is no way I can pull out of the deal. I must pay the price determined which was not advertised before I agreed to the purchase. Who on earth would do their shopping like that? Even worse, because when we gamble we aim to come out of a transaction with profit, how terrible is it when that profit is nearly half what we intended. Equivalent of getting only half your change back from a ten pound note!

Yet we back SP without any certainty of what that price will be. Betfair claim they do flag it up just before the off. If you are there to see that, you are there to do the market observation yourself. Trust me, it is what we all must do if we want to win in the long term.

Those of us old enough to remember John McCrirrick’s TV campaign to highlight how bookmakers conspired to shave a few decimal points off every SP they could also influenced me. The fact that UK course bookmakers rarely show much fluctuation in what they offer has always been a source of dismay to me in a supposed free market. Why do their prices imitate each other and not represent their own personal opinions on how a race might end up? They don’t even reflect their own liabilities much as they are all always busy hedging with each other and the exchanges doing their lightning calculations to ensure the guaranteed small (or sometimes obscenely large – as per the 163% Grand National overround of a few years back) percentage profit on each race come what may. All sheep following the generally formed market and ensuring the supposed independent ring observers employed to ascertain an ISP as a mean average of what the course ring is offering are not in control of SPs at all. That is easily manipulated by the ring in collusion with each other to guarantee a favourable return for themselves.

Exchanges challenged that for a while and substantial variations between ISPs and BSPs were common at one time but still never something that you couldn’t better by doing the market watch yourself. Then Betfair obtained their bookmaker’s licence and ceased being simply brokers of bets. Now they hardly happen at all and the industry manipulators have learned how to also influence the BSP in line with their own figures simply by the volumes with which they operate through the exchanges now.Any large variations these days tend to be like the Tombstone one. Varying heavily in favour of the ISP! Depending also of course though on whether you were a backer or a layer of Tombstone. If you were a layer you got a right let off if you got settled at 1.46! Didn’t happen by the sound. Betfair always quick to correct such errors as those who’ve found £10 light in their balance the day after can testify to. I’ve had a winner voided today not because the hare broke down. Betfair forgot to suspend betting at the off. Took back my winnings an hour later and if I’d have withdrawn it, I would have found an overdrawn balance on my account. Done that to me before. You gotta watch them every second. At least on course bookies paid out twice on the Sandown wrong winning post issue. But were quick to moan about incompetence when they do similar every day if they can find ways of doing so without anyone noticing. Like me with Betfair SPs. Should have researched them before now. They weren’t around in my days of forming my Betfair practices. Steam coming out of my ears how angry with myself I am for that lapse!

Picking a race winner is always a gamble and gambling is why we are in this but my take has always been why double the gamble by also gambling on the price? Sure it will come out in your favour on occasion. More often it will not. And if you also employ as part of your deciding whether a bet is value the process of forming your own market after doing a race read and then comparing it with what is on offer – as indeed we all should before ever placing a bet – why would you then place your bet taking what is a monumental risk in allowing it to be settled at a price you know nothing about? Totally illogical and defies the objective of everything we have ever been taught about how you make a long term profit at this game.

You make your profit by being ahead of the game not by signing over control of 50% of the game to the enemy.

That’s what SP betting is for me. There are two things you must work on to make your betting pay. One is picking winners and avoiding losers as much as possible. Two is getting the right price on the bet you place. That part two can never be achieved if you allow it to be settled at SP.

And finally a word on BOGs as I know several of you will have been screaming that a BOG allows you to get a better SP price than that you took when you placed your bet if and when they occur.

This is true. But they do only apply to backing and not laying. Not yet seen the BOG lay offer which could have helped avert the crisis described above! But also keep in mind always that BOGs on backs are not made available to all customers by any bookmaker. They are discretionary and particularly targeted at those showing long term losses with any bookmaker. They are never made available to anybody winning in the long term. Why on earth would they be? Just a bookmaker marketing tool and yes you can use them in the early days of building your bank up from scratch if you have no past history of long term profit. They are however to my mind an unhealthy diversion to what you should be concentrating on which is graduated bank management aimed at producing long term returns that go in only one direction. And if the SP is longer than the price you took, that always means the better than SP price had been available to you on the exchanges and often even better than the enhanced SP. Taking BOGs makes you lazy in regard to what I consider that critical part two of every bet you ever place. Which is,Getting the best price you can. Almost always better than the BOG SP.Those that put in the work and watch the markets develop and train their instincts to recognise the peak of any market price – employing partial and graded staking techniques in the early days of real time betting(much as gold traders and stock traders do) but also being aware of which way a market is likely to swing on a price in relation to the race read that you have done (the same info is generally available to the market) will always do better than BOG so that even when they are withdrawn from you, you can still beat the SP.

The SP is out of your control. Therefore it has to be bad. In the world according to Boz anyways!

Gary Boswell

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