BOZmail – 29th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY MARCH 29th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

US RACING – SUNDAY play in Crisis Corner

8-51 TAMPA BAY DOWNS

This is not really an LIM race but I’m starting to branch out a bit now with a bit of practice under my wing and in order to try and keep the show on the road. My oppose here is Hey Kitten assuming it is one of the favs. First or second around 5/2 or 3/1 on the early UK tissues. There are several to fancy against it most notably Duchess of Sussex so I’ll play simply lay single and see if I can’t run up a sequence now.

The start of my DISCLOSING SECRETS series reproduced below and three more episodes of that over the next three days. 

Recommendation:

£2 LAY on HEY KITTEN

The Boz’s March US & Irish Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

18th:  -£4-10 (-£4-10) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 21.0

19th:   NO BET

20th:  +£2-94 (-£1-16) Lay @ 3.0

21st:   NO BET

22nd:  -£1-75 (-£2-91) Lays @ 2.25 & 10.5

23rd:  +£2-94 (+£0-03) Lay @ 1.79

24th:    -£1-52 (-£1-49) Lay @ 1.76

25th:    IRISH RACING ABANDONED

26th:    NO BET

27th:   +£2-45 (+£0-96) Lay @ 3.15

28th:   NO BET

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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DISCLOSING SECRETS 

(In 2004, Gary Boswell was commissioned by Betfair.com to write a series of BEST BETTING PRACTICE tips for punters still getting their heads round the burgeoning new betting world that the exchanges were bringing. 13 years later (2017) we find those published pieces still have resonance and are worthy of reprinting – with updates – in these pages.They will be serialised over the next three issues covering the following topics: 

USE YOUR EYES – BACK WHAT YOU SEE 

KEEP YOUR INFORMATION TO YOURSELF 

KEEP RECORDS & CREATE YOUR OWN PERSONALLY RELEVANT STATISTICAL DATA 

MAKE YOUR OWN MARKETS 

THE STAGGERED ACCUMULATOR APPROACH) 

Tip Number One:USE YOUR EYES – BACK WHAT YOU SEE 

In the pre-Betfair days, to make a long  term profit from betting, you had to be one step ahead of the bookmakers' odds compilers. You had to be able to gain an edge. Something you knew that they didn't. It applies just as much in the modern world except that now you are playing not only against bookmakers' odds compilers but Uncle Tom Cobbley and all! Never was it more necessary to get something on your side that you know and others don't. 

Your eyes are your best friend. Observe everything you can. At a football match, don't just follow the ball. Watch the dugout, keep an eye on the crowd behaviour, see what the goalkeepers are doing when the play is up the other end. All these factors have a bearing on long term outcomes and tend to be the aspects traditional oddsmakers don't factor in. 

In season 1999/2000, I was a regular at Christie Park to watch Jim Harvey's Morecambe. My nearest club. My newly adopted team who served as an excellent rite of passage for my eldest son who was finding his way into becoming a lifelong football fan. In October 1999, Kidderminster Harriers were the visitors and during the game I witnessed the Harriers' manager – a certain Jan Molby – have an extraordinary touchline influence on the game. Kiddy were languishing in the nether regions prior to the game and Morecambe were widely forecast to win. For 80 minutes, the Harriers played a stout defensive formation with Molby on his feet throughout bellowing instructions and encouragement. In the last ten minutes, with the game seemingly drifting towards a 0-0 draw, Molby became frantic in urging Thomas Skovjberg to go on an attacking run. The rest of the Kidderminster side left their own half for pretty much the first time in the game and supported Skovjberg's foray. Morecambe were caught cold. The first bit of defending they had been called to do all game and they duly conceded a Dean Bennett belter and Kidderminster took all three points back to Worcestershire. They had been bottom of the table when Molby turned up six games in to the season. In May, they were crowned champions and became the first side from Worcestershire ever to enter the Football League. Brian Talbot's Rushden and Diamonds (the non-league version of a Man City money team at the time) had been screaming odds on bookmaker's favourites for the title all season. I considered what I'd seen Molby do – single-handedly engineer an unlikely 1-0 win from the touchline – to be exceptional and I thought if he could keep doing that and with the building confidence that keeping winning was to going to bring to his squad, he might win the league. I backed them at 50/1 after that game and again at 16/1 at Xmas and 5/1 in February by which time they had made it into the top six. I also backed them every game in that period whilst odds compilers, oblivious to what I'd seen on that day, continued to over price them based on their current league position. 

Tip number two: KEEP YOUR INFORMATION TO YOURSELF 

In March 2000, I started on my career as a football tipster and in my first columns for the now defunct Football Gazette, gave Kidderminster as a strong advice to win the league ahead of the still screaming odds on Rushden & Diamonds. The price on Kiddy was still 5/1 at that point but after three more weeks and three more wins for the Worcestershire outfit, they were down to 6/4 joint favourites. My reputation as a tipster was started! 

I was already on of course so didn't seriously suffer from releasing the information and this is a dilemma a betting writer often faces. The timing of when to release personal secrets. I was being paid for it too so no qualms this time. In general though, if you see something that you can turn to your betting advantage, you release details of it at your peril! The way the word gets round the internet these days, you are best advised keeping it to yourself. If you must tell, tell only to those whose discretion you trust not to blab widely or, like me, find someone who is willing to pay you for the info. It goes without saying that once in the hands of the enemy, your secret advantage will quickly become closed as a profit stream. That is the game we play. 

That was what I wrote in 2004 and I went on to talk about how we are all human though and enjoy the sharing process and then gave an example of something secret at the time that I was prepared to start sharing in a controlled way. And now in 2017 I am very much part of the Betting School culture, enjoying sharing secrets with fellow members on the forum in the knowledge that we are likeminded punters. 

The secrets thing is however still relevant and in 2017 I have a new one which I did not have back then in 2004 and it is that one I shall write and share as the rest of this tip. When I have related the story up to now, I have agreed with Betting School to run it as a live trial from January 2018 through to March 2018 given that it still needs more trialling before becoming a secret worthy of the name! 

It started in January 2017 not as an observation of my own but as a gift given to me by a friend and colleague with whom I play chess. Shares my interest in the horses and had spotted a trend he reckoned was worthy of following. It related to NH bumper races and he sold it to me as ‘a pearler for anyone who likes long priced winners'. That's me alright and every one of us I suspect! My raison d'etre is the finding of three figure odds winners that can be backed without the need to back every one that occurs in the market! This promised so to do. I began the tracking process. 

And on February 10th 2017, this is what happened. Two bumpers that day, one at Kempton and one at Bangor. In the Kempton bumper, eight qualifiers were thrown up by the ‘system' in a 16 runner field. Already I was wavering. I'd seen the potential for big winners by this time in the weeks leading up but am a less is more man. I don't back eight runners in a 16 horse field – not for anyone! One of the eight won however – Pam Sly's Haafapiece at SP odds of 33/1. What's more, a 14/1 qualifier came second and a 10/1 qualifier came third.Eight qualifiers though. Couldn't see myself backing a system that required an 8 perm tricast even if it was going to throw up a whopping profit on occasion. 

Then same day, the 4-25 at Bangor. Just three qualifiers in this one. 8 runner race. The three qualifiers finished first second and third at SP odds of 100/1, 9/2 & 4/1. The CSF paid £502-89 and the trifecta paid £1,349-40. Now you are talking! The winner was Samson's Reach trained by Richard Price and had nothing in its form to suggest what it was going to do and has done precious little since. I watched the race on the day and it was ridden by a rider who was faithful to how bumpers got their name! His bottom was up and down in the saddle all the way round and yet the horse still won at 100/1 and had been identified by the source. No form student in the world could have picked it. 

Two big price winners in one day not to mention the forecasts and trifectas. Eleven horses to back though and of course as the year carried on from there, plenty of days that didn't show the same scores. But still plenty of winners however and overall profit no problem. 

The months of January,February and March were optimum and that we test again in 2018 to check its veracity going forward. There is a logic to it but check it we must. And I have built a couple of other filters in too to reduce incidence and keep the emphasis on big price winners only. The source picks short price winners aswell. Those I'm filtering out. 

And we'll see if it works again in 2018. If it does and the money has been made two years in a row, the secret can be shared! 

N.B. The source of the bumper system remains one of my secrets along with the shortlist system although I do of course share some of the horses I see on it. UNWIN VC & LADY BOWES 

are current to follow list horses gleaned from this system. The 2018 & 2019 trials were very profitable during the February & March periods. 2020 started well but has obviously been marred by what has happened this year and I think I may indeed put a line through the 2020 sample as incomplete. The system remains a work in progress really (not an overnight sensation this one!) and those 2017 figures have never really replicated but like the shortlist system, it had its day and has now morphed into something else – remaining profitable and an extremely valuable addition to my tipping armoury. The source undoubtedly has veracity.

Tips 3,4 & 5 shared here over next three days.

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