BOZmail – 29th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY JUNE 29th  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

5-35 NEWMARKET

Only the second bad LIM loser of the month so can’t complain I suppose. And avoided the double whammy of bringing the staggered acca down by backing Bertens. Sometimes it is the losers you swerve that keep your nose in front.

Even so, bit pissed with myself that I didn’t trade the Francky price as he came into the straight in the lead but with Coleman breathing down his neck. Got too wrapped up in my own cocksureness that Francky would battle it out. Coleman a formidable riding opponent and that may have been my mistake in that one. I’ve underestimated him before. Hey ho.Can’t win ‘em all.Onwards.

Saturday is a rare traverse into a back on a to follow horse. I was initially keen to lay Barsanti in the Listed Affair but his price is longer than I hoped for and there is a chance he will make race fitness pay over two dangerous rivals who have both been off for a long spell. So I’ve drifted back to this first handicap for our Raise You form horse who ran well on heavy to beat Maydanny and should be suited even more to this ground. That said, there is a danger in the race and Ummalnar comes out ahead on some of my figures. Ocean Paradise is young and progressive however and could improve past and for small stake I’ll take that chance. No lay on the fav though as he is a genuine danger.

Nap of the day however will be my staggered acca tennis bet! Working hard all weekend on the Wimbledon draw! Will post my revised portfolio picks tomorrow (if you’ve seen my Betting Insiders piece today) as two of my fancies are injury defections. 

Recommendation:

0.25pt BACK on OCEAN PARADISE (around 3.25)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

              — Whole race played as trade– 

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

19th:    +0.49 (+2.119) Lay @ 1.36

20th:    +0.294(+2.413) Lay @ 1.33

21st:   +0.3757(+2.7887) Back @ 2.12 : 

            — Whole match played as a two horse back trade —

22nd:   +0.184 (+2.9727) Back @ 1.94 

23rd:    +0.145 (+3.1177) Lay @ 3.65 : Back @ 3.65

24th:     BET VOIDED

25th:     -0.195 (+2.9227) Lay @1.78

26th:     +2.745(+5.6677) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @26.0

27th:     +0.145(+5.8127) Lay @ 2.36 : Back @ 3.65

28th:      -0.61 (+5.2027)  Lay @2.84 : Back @ 5.3

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 116/174 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 31/114 = 27.19%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.4444 points.

Staggered acca number 12: (LEG 3)

Eastbourne Final

 Angelique Kerber to beat Karolina Pliskova @ 23/18

Stake = 0.4444points

The market takes Pliskova after she has blasted her way through her last two and it is true that when the serve is in A mode, younger twin Pliskova becomes a machine. Mentally fragile though and I’ll be surprised if she blasts past Kerber who will only need to stay in there and show some resistance to the barrage to start putting the doubts in Pliskova’s head and assert the back form. She stands 7-4 on their head to head and 1-0 on grass and the only Pliskova win in recent years was a Fed Cup match on clay where Kerber is not the ferocious Serena bashing force she is on grass. Looked tremendous in her QF demolition of Halep – a tougher opposition than Pliskova has beaten as Bertens in the SF showed her grass frailty of the day before. And now Kerber has also had a day’s rest courtesy of Jabeur’s withdrawal with injury. Kerber hot fave in the Boz’s book. So we are getting value aswell.

Could be a classic encounter if Pliskova maintains her top form and Kerber wants it. It only goes down I’d say if Kerber decides to save herself for Wimbledon. That is a possibility but for a free bet, I’m in!!

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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