BOZmail 29th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY JUNE 29th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.7733 points (-0.2267 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.121 points (+5.121 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.89 points (-0.11 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.3153 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 10/16 = 62.5%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

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LESS IS MORE: 

12-00 YARMOUTH

Sunday’s Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on ASCENSION (around 2.4 or lower if you can get it to be hedged when preferential odds occur)

Laid @ 2.12 and a further 0.3pts @ 2.2 : Hedged 0.1pt @ 2.46 & 0.28pts @ 3.0

= P/L +0.2156pts

After I’d got my 0.3pt Lay on at 2.12, a couple of things happened to influence the way I went from there. I heard from a tipster colleague who passed on some jockey info that Hansen was saying he was looking forward to a win on the Hannon horse.

If you saw the ITV coverage, Hansen went on there saying same and as a result the price on Ascension – which had been pretty steady through most of the market watch period – suddenly went on a busy drift. Mainly in the last five minutes before the off. TV has that power. I was expecting the drift by that stage and took my 0.28pt @ 3.0 as a pre-planned and calculated hedge. If Ascension went on to win, I stood to win just 0.01pt but by that stage I was fairly convinced it was good gen and slanted my play to optimise on him getting beat. Of course I could have ditched the second hedge completely with hindsight but I was still carrying 0.55pt liability and wasn’t really in the mood for the risk. At the end of the day however, gambling always draws you back in. That’s what I said yesterday. Today I’ll say it half dragged me back in. I could have levelled my liability either way @ 3.0 but I chose the more or less free bet gamble instead.

The other thing that happened night before after hearing the jockey whisper (don’t always trust them of course although my colleague is a trustworthy sort but not always those passing on to him) was reading a race read that said the draw might favour Buhturi more with his proximity to the rail and that Ascension might not act cast out in the centre of the Heath. Not an angle I’d considered much in my race read and as you know I’m doing more predicting trade opportunities than winners and losers at the moment but Buhturi was my idea of the winner so I had two reasons now for thinking Ascension might struggle. Market moved him out to 2.46 showing that the jockey whisper was spreading. I took a tenner at 2.46 planning to perhaps take more once the drift accelerated. But instead of that, Ascension came back in to 2.2 so I rang my colleague back. He was adamant the whisper had legs and with my new ammo on the draw which I checked out and liked the look of, I decided instead to play double lay feeling fairly sure that the drift was coming again on Sunday. 

Was sweating a bit when it hadn’t materialised by 3pm I’ll freely admit. Some of you warned me I might be playing with fire here  expecting a price to drift when I’ve put the word out to lay. I am clear on roughly how much BOZmailers are affecting markets however and do keep my eye and regular stats on that. We haven’t overridden the big players much lately for reasons you all know about. And sure enough the drift did start just before Thor came on the telly saying he really fancied Lexington Dash. 

I could have gone back to being traditional LIM player but I didn’t. I half/free bet gambled instead. There was a clear moment of choice and I did consider. For about two seconds. Nah, I’m in trader mode. I can clear half of remaining deficit without risk leaving two days for the rest. That was my thinking. Do I regret it now I’ve seen the race? I’m still in trader mode so no. Gambling completely would have put me back in plus. Any of you go that way? We always have choices and the more you trade, the more choices you get. My not going whole hog gamble on this one tells me I’m even more trader now than I was in summer 2018 when I made my first moves in that direction. Caution suits me. Not that I didn’t feel like gambler again at 2.59pm today however when I was sitting on that 0.55point liability thinking I might have egg on my face! There was always in running to save me if the drift before the off didn’t happen.

As I’ve told a few of you however,I don’t like praying for a bad run. Like to be pretty sure it is going to happen. Last three and a half months have eroded my confidence somewhat but it turned out right in the end. I go 7/7 on the LIM trades and to answer those asking why my lay % has shot back up when not all seven lays have got beat the answer is an equivocal they’ve all seven shown me a profit. And that’s the lure of trading for me. I cope better with winning less than I could have over not winning at all i.e. losing. Just the way I’m made! And the older I get, the more I baulk at having to do any kind of loss clawback. Not enjoyed this one at all. Do know how important they are however and that you take them deadly seriously, coming up with the best ways you can to make things better and not any worse. Hope I’m getting that message across. And to illustrate the psychology point about which all gambling is centred, the other thing about me is that despite June 2020 being one of my most tortuously unpleasant gambling months ever (actually statistically the worst LIM wise since November 2018 – the month before the new BLWM venture began and my scores were saved by a BOZmail staggered acca coming in), June 2020 has actually seen me now post a monthly plus for the BOZmail that is greater than the previous four month score combined. That’s thanks mainly to the coronavirus cessation period and then Muker at Royal Ascot of course but you’ll have noted that part of this torture was me punishing myself for the LIM lapse between 13th – 15th and determined that I should not use the Muker winnings to cover the cracks of the LIM lapse. Winnings like that I tend to protect with a fierceness greater than that with which I protected my own kids when they was little. And LIM needed to mend itself in my idea of personal psychology.

So Muker was BOZ the trader taking it out on BOZ the feckless gambler! Just in case you ain’t seen a split personality in operation before!

All of that means I am showing plus eight points on the sheet now (and I accept that many of you won’t be showing that) as we approach the originally planned half way mark. I’d expected a good 20 to 30 points by this stage but of course no Aintree, no summer jumping still and no tennis means I still have a lot of gaps to fill. Second half of the year can only get better. Will be extended as promised to include September (which is normally form turn around time when LIM struggles but should be July or August in this year’s topsy turvy version of the racing calendar. We’ll see.) and also January.Not decided yet how I’ll approach the other traditionally tricky LIM time of year. Let’s see how we go first and how much back to normal rhythms we are or aren’t by that stage. 

Meanwhile, Monday’s play. I looked at the 2-20 at Windsor long and hard but the fav looks sure to go off 5/2 and isn’t an obvious oscillator as Attwater has kept his top weight in to depress weights suggesting he is confident his fav can go in again. Too much guesswork at big prices whereas this Yarmouth effort is at least guesswork at low liability. And I did some good recovery Sunday so Monday can afford to be modest. Alphabetical does look the likely winner and we haven’t done well trying to get traditional Prescott sequence horses beat lately but 1/2  is mega short again against two from in form stables who don’t have much on paper chance and not much to definitely rule them out either. Such is the sparseness of back form in a lot of LIM qualifying races at the moment. I play purely on the market again. Lay low and take no chances, selling high soon as it comes up. No half returns to gambler in this one I don’t think. Purely trading on the price.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on ALPHABETICAL (around 1.5 or preferably lower to be hedged with  preferential odds when they become available)            

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3655*) Lay @ 1.66 * arithmetic mistake corrected

13th: -0.24     (-0.6055) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8215) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2295) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3195) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

21st: +0.1048 (-1.2147) Lays @ 1.33 & 14.0 :Backs @1.6 & 28.0

22nd: +0.0784 (-1.1363) Lay @ 2.12 : Backs @ 2.4 & 3.15

23rd:  +0.049  (-1.0873) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @ 2.5

24th:  +0.106  (-0.9813) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 3.2

25th: NO BET

26th:  +0.5047 (-0.4766) Lay @ 2.34 : Backs @ 3.2 & 11.0

27th:  +0.0343 (-0.4423) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 2.1

28th:  +0.2156 (-0.2267) Lay @ 2.12 & 2.2 : Backs @ 2.46 & 3.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (June 30) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Jaganory – Entered for Bath (July 2)

Waseem Faris

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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