BOZmail – 29th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY JULY 29th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

4-45 NEWTON ABBOT

Samson is the oppose on Monday with Dr Newland’s charge going up a hefty ten pounds for the win LTO at Worcester and up a grade in class to boot. I give chance to all the others in a very open race and may be increasing my lay also if, as we learned at Cartmel last week, the trainer does not appear in the parade ring!

Bramble Brook is arguably the class in the race – out of current form and over less than ideal trip but more at home in Class 3 than Class 5 and only having to give 7lb. Tizzard’s form in running is at 67% so I expect him to be competitive. As you Like is consistent but keeps going up the weights for finishing second and is sure to be thereabouts whilst Royal Magic has very similar profile to the favourite but a fall last time out to bounce back from. Against that is the champ on board and the champ v STD? You know who I’m with every time! Included has form behind Pink Eyed Pedro and two very quick times in his last two outings at Ffos Las. It is a very difficult race to be dogmatic about a back selection but I’m feeling expansive after a strong month and will have a small tickle on him and a bigger lay against the fav in what is on paper a very wide open race. Jockey a slight worry on Included as he would normally be STD’s ride but that may account for his price and the value therein. The change of jockey may also prove a positive as the horse develops his as yet not fully developed chasing career.

Recommendations:

0.4pt LAY on SAMSON (around 2.7 : no greater than 3.0)

0.1pt BACK on INCLUDED (around 7.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

18th:    +0.2 (+5.841) Backs @ 4.0 &4.5 : LAY unmatched

19th:  NON RUNNER

20th:    +0.54 (+6.381)Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 3.0 

21st:     -0.275(+6.106)Lay @ 2.1

22nd:   +0.194(+6.30) Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 9.0

23rd:    +0.743(+7.043)Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 5.0

24th:     +0.144(+7.187)Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 6.0

25th:     +0.193(+7.38) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 8.4

26th:      -0.334(+7.046)Lay @ 1.52 : Back @ 7.8

27th:      +0.145(+7.191)Lay @ 2.86: Back @ 6.2

28th:       NO PLAY DAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 135/199 = 67.83% :   BACKS: 41/136 = 30.14%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charle Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Yarmouth (Jul 30) & Galway (1 Aug)

FLAT HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on MONDAY

6-40 WINDSOR – GOLD STICK @ 5/2

There’ll never be another Enable but Johnny G starts again with this young subject of her Majesty’s stable who found things happening a bit quick LTO up in the weights and starts in handicap company at a similar mark. Tissue favourite due to its class and potential for improvement up in trip but a watch and see brief really for me at that short a price.I don’t doubt the ability but a long term prospect really and 5/2 would be too short to tip. Each way chance in my book on what we’ve seen so far. So a watch on the market. Will back to lay if it drifts a bit with the possibility of leaving the hedge out if the in play evidence impresses and suggests a win might be on the cards. Alternative will be to watch and make notes. Pretty sure it is one to continue following after this race and back in future when the price is right.

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A BOZmailer pointed out in recent conversation that we have had 13/14 successful staggered acca starter bets since the service began in December 2018 and yet the element remains at bank starter position. Why didn’t we just bank the winnings of the 13 and then we’d be 3 or 4 points better off by now was the question stroke observation. I can’t argue with the sentiment other than to say hindsight is a wonderful thing and I share the frustration that the bet has yet to fire. I do also think it’s actually 12/14 successful starters but I have the stats boys checking that. I remember doing a repair job and I think it was on two first leg losers not one. Memory not the greatest now however hence having it checked! 

The point remains and I have considered a change of approach over the past couple of months especially as I have been guilty on a couple of occasions of going in on 2nd legs with a touch of impatience when I know full well this is a bet that requires impeccable behaviour in that quarter. 12/14 Grade A bets is a strike rate suggesting that I can land the bet (as of course I have on numerous occasions in the past) and that I ought give it a few more tries yet before abandoning as part of this year’s strategy. Your thoughts welcomed. My feeling in general is keep trying until end of November and if an unfruitful year, then switch to different strategy.Always respond to feedback however if enough feel it is time to try something else. At least one more go lined up though courtesy of my summer research in the non league football world.

Fingers crossed and I do know for sure that patience is always rewarded in the end!   

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Will shout if or when another starter emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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