BOZmail 29th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY JULY 29th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.88 points (+0.88 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.5193 points (+6.5193 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +6.0853 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.3729 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 31/40 = 77.5%  Backs : 3/16 = 18.75%

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LESS IS MORE: 

4-00 BANGOR

 Bit  of a sparsity of LIM qualifiers around again next two days. Classy races at Goodwood and Galway Wednesday don’t appeal much although the Galway jump at 4-45 does have an Elliot on a four timer who could perhaps be taken on. Not wanting to head back to the flat just yet, I have therefore decided on a modest play in the Bangor bumper where there is a short fav to take on and the absolute BOZ number one to follow horse of the moment – Lady Bowes – up against it. Both are hard to evaluate against five rivals who’ve never been on the racecourse before and this is a play the market exercise as much as anything but also part of the investment I shall be making in Lady B over the next few years. My tip for the 2023 Grand National if you remember from owner/breeders nearby who has shown her quirks – on and off bridle and being a monkey in prelims – in three efforts so far. The latest was disappointing beaten by three who haven’t franked the form since. She will probably also want softer ground, has a long absence to overcome and the stable second string jockey on board. Really selling this to you aren’t I?

Clearly a heart horse already for me following her 100/1 runner up effort at Carlisle second time out and being a neighbour I have formed a personal connection already. She just has that glint in her eye. You know the one Enable and Stradivarius have got? I expect some great fun following her the next few years as she learns the game and being from the Moffat yard will mean likely good prices too. And a win when you least expect it. So not necessarily here but I’m on anyways as the Skelton fav looks super short and an equally quirky madame who has had the wind op and may settle down now but to my eye she is only the price she is because of the yard. Described as a hard ride and obviously also had breathing issues but absolutely not something I would back at even money.

There are four untried four year olds against her who could be anything with the Richard Newland particularly promising in embryo. The play fits my bumper system so although it is more a watch and learn race in many ways, I always like to follow my prime stable horses and it is an otherwise unpromising day so I’ll stake modest and enjoy the watch. Be interesting to see how Lady Bowes handles this better ground now she’s a year older.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MISSTREE SONG (around even money)

0.05pt BACK on LADY BOWES (around 4.0 or better)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

22nd: +0.1715 (+0.676) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @4.6

23rd:  +0.098   (+0.774) Lay @ 2.26

24th:   -0.27     (+0.504) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 5.0

25th:   +0.0882(+0.5922) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 6.6

26th:   +0.147  (+0.7392) Lay @ 2.7

27th:    +0.098 (+0.8272) Lay @ 2.4 : Back at 14.5

28th:    NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) 

Malotru 

English King – Entered for Goodwood (July 30) & Doncaster (Sep 12)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

TO FOLLOW TRADE HORSE ON TUESDAY:

2-15 GOODWOOD – BATTLEGROUND @ 11/8 – 0.5pt BACK

Backed @ 2.46 : Hedged in running 0.5pt @ 2.0 : P/L = +0.23pts

He’s a wily bugger is O’Brien. Plenty of money came for Battleground and yet the price held firm at best and drifted for the most part. Convincing old Joe Public that there wasn’t much confidence in it. And then you see the race. Ran as impressively as at Ascot with only one to beat and put that one way with the extra improvement found since Ascot. Really is the serious racehorse he looked and I’m left with one of those I wished I’d just left as a gamble. Couldn’t get sufficiently hedged before the off but wasn’t unhappy going in running given how impressed I was at Ascot and looking at the bloodlines. Then you also know what a trainer O’Brien is. So had my 2.0 stake back hedge in place then tried to cancel it as I started to see how well he was going and that the win was a certainty. But I wasn’t quick enough to cancel. The 2.0 had become 1.6 by the time I got there and had I not posted prior, I would have been matched at 1.6 but that would also have been a hedge I was prepared to forego by that stage. So trading cost me £50 gambling would have won me. And that’s the downside of too much reliance on trading. Stifles the gambler in you. It does all balance out but I’m no better than any that say trading takes the fun out of it. It does.

As more of a trader these days though by self training, I have to be happy with the reduced winnings. I still made a reasonable profit, I didn’t have a loser and I can still spot a top class horse!

Those are the positives. Keep reminding myself of them. Could have done with the full winnings though at the moment. Kicking myself that I didn’t have more faith!

Battleground does of course stay on the list though. He’s top drawer. There will be more plusses to come from him. And next time I gamble! 

TO FOLLOW TRADE HORSE ON WEDNESDAY:

2-45 GOODWOOD – SIGNIFICANTLY @ 4/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Back at the best price you can get and hedge at preferential odds when appropriate.

Up in grade again after three efforts getting chinned. The bridesmaid who just can’t catch the bouquet? The form is jolly crisp however with that Muker form FTO well and truly up there to suggest might improve into this race if taking to the Goodwood track.

Might also be one of those horses however – capable of consistently snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. So a plain trade opportunity again for me. Before the off or in running. Both look ok. But I’ll green out rather than risk that he finally gets his head in front. 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden 

Lord Condi – Entered for Southwell (July 30)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

For Pleasure – Entered for Southwell (July 30)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

TO FOLLOW TRADE HORSE ON WEDNESDAY:

3-00 BANGOR – FOR PLEASURE @ 4/5 – 0.15pt BACK

Won’t bother with trade here on this one at that price. Should win after ease of LTO performance and out again soon after to avoid inevitable rise in the handicap. Looks a potential handicap snip.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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