BOZmail – 29th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY JANUARY 29th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

1-20 NEWCASTLE

Well you guys bundled into Hey Bill alongside Racing Postform followers meaning Mistress Massini fans got a cracking SP. Fortunately LIM triumphed in picking it as a race with ultra competitive feel. I fear however that stable were also on MM as the SP price crashed to 1.7 in running and was only thwarted really by that breasting of the ditch. Knocked a lot of stuffing out. Looked like it might be a classic LIM with the unconsidered outsider travelling best at the last but Huff and Puff lived up to his name and saved the BOZ’s blushes. Hey Bill simply ran too free early and was never a factor which just shows the perils of backing horses and the beauty of the LIM approach. Especially when I got the narrowing down process right aswell. Other considered races all won by the favs.

And so repair work completed and LIM monthly back in marginal plus. Three days to try and build a respectable finishing score but Tuesday only gives us one LIM qualifier and never so happy with only one race to choose from and a difficult one to have an opinion about at that. Those calling for the occasional day off from LIM can probably take that here.

The BOZ however likes to keep going if he can. The daily rhythm helps keep me oiled and I definitely bring bank management into play for days like this. Don’t want to do damage I just repaired.

Am clear about the one to lay however. It’s all a Lark has to carry 10lb penalty for win LTO (including jockey allowance), hails from a stable out of top form (where main rivals are all from in form stables) and form shows a distinct preference for no juice in the ground which seems unlikely tomorrow. Three big negatives. Does have the handicap experience that several of these lack but Peters Cousin and Another Theatre both have novice wins LTO that bode well for chance of starting out in handicap on a lenient mark. Valse au Taillons also looks an unexposed sort that may have lots more to give but we are basically going on trends as much as anything in opposing the Hughes mount so not a strong day and stake level at absolute minimum. Hard to be sure what price level to expect as tissues suggest somewhere bewteen 9/4 and 7/2. The former is fine but even I’ll be abstaining if we are asked to lay at over 4.6. That’s my general upper end limit for laying with only very occasional exception.

  

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on IT’S ALL A LARK

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 39/51 = 76.47% :   BACKS: 7/32 = 21.87%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Plumpton (Jan 30)

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.625 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 2)

 

Awaiting the weapons grade selection to follow on from Leg 1. Will shout as soon as it appears

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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