BOZmail – 29th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY DECEMBER 29th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

Just before I get into Saturday’s action, a quick word in response to those asking about Boz’s golden rule number 4. Do all in your power to get the best price available. What do I mean by this?

Well obviously if you are used to tipsters quoting prices to get on at, this is something different for you and will take a bit of getting used to. Worry not. Here are a few things to ponder based on a couple of our bets over the Xmas period. But before that, understand that the way I see our relationship is that I look after golden rule number two and get my selections as good as I can possibly get them. Let me know when you ain’t happy that is the case and socks will be pulled up! Feedback always welcomed even during the tough spells.

Your job is to get for yourself the best prices on the selections that you can and in the fast changing world of the market exchanges, available to us all, that means you are best served by watching and learning how markets rise and fall and getting used to them and predicting their peaks and troughs. This is as much an art as selecting winners and you won’t become a master overnight but as in all things practice makes perfect. If you ain’t already started and took industry SP on Verdana Blue on Boxing Day (massive mistake) first rule is simple:

Back as high as you can get. Lay as low as you can get.

Sounds simple and of course it is in theory. The practice is a bit tougher but the more you watch, the more you’ll spot the signs that give you the clues.

On Boxing Day, I quoted that I was tipping Verdana Blue for the reasons I mentioned and fixed odds best at that point (around 11am Christmas morning) was 15/2 generally available. Betfair exchange price at that point was 9.8 (less commission). Betdaq exchange price was also 9.8 but only charges 2% commission. So if you are backing then, as that is your only available opportunity to place a bet, who do you bet with? Answer Betdaq. Biggest return.

You then had 24 hours to watch the market as I did and when the papers came out Boxing Day morning, 13 of the 15 Racing Post tipsters called Buveur D’air a shoo in.

Market reaction? Fav quickly in from 2/7 to 2/9 and Verdana goes out to as far as 15.6 at its peak on Betfair. I got 13.0. When I saw 15.6 I tried to have another little bit but wasn’t quick enough. It didn’t last long. Never be afraid to bet again if a horse you are backing drifts further past the sensible price you have set on your selection (you can almost always hedge it back later or in running if you so choose). I thought 8.5 was good value on Verdana as I wrote when I posted. 15.6 was getting close to double that. And don’t fear that RP tipsters are all making the fav a buying money horse. They get beat. I work on that. You have to trust me. I don’t get it right everytime but my percentages as a layer are there for you to see. If it don’t work this time, chances are it will next.

The RP tipsters are newspaper tipsters. They team tip and have to do every race every day in the UK. Sticking a pin in is as reliable as a guide to tipping. Not to say each individual tipster in the team isn’t as good as I am. Several are better. But they are doing dozens of races every day. Hundreds on Boxing Day. I did one. And had 24 hours extra time to normal in which to work it out. They publish because the bookmakers pay them to. Always worth remembering. The Racing Post and all such periodicals are bookmaker owned. Published to ensure high turnover figures in the industry. Of course they tip winners. No-one would read it otherwise. Ever counted their daily losers? Also in the hundreds on Boxing day. Thousands maybe! Makes sense when you think about how it is produced.

Despite all that they massively influence the market. Also as you’d expect. So look at what they are tipping. If your carefully produced selection is not being tipped, you can wait a while to get best price as was the case on Boxing Day.

How come it got returned at ISP of 11/2? Good bloody question. My Dad never called it an ISP but an RDSP. A rounded down starting price. They call it a mean average of the ring prices as calculated by an independent observer but the ring bookies all know that and conspire to affect it. Of course they do. When the exchanges came along that was seriously challenged and Betfair SPs still outscore ISPs but not as much as they used to. Bookmakers are on that too now. Your best price will almost always come from watching the pure exchange price. Back and Lay.

Although I don’t state it in the golden rules, I don’t ever recommend placing a bet at SP on horses. Not even Betfair SP (and BOGs are also almost always improved on if you watch the exchanges). The best price on Verdana Blue was 15.6 on the exchanges – almost double best price elsewhere. Nearly three times better than ISP. Today’s best prices on Stormy Ireland and Espoir D’Allen? You could lay SI at 1.96 before the off and back EDA at 5.3. Farclas traded at 13.0 before he fell (having a bout of fallitis all of a sudden!) but of course in running prices is a whole other ball park.That’s for another day. Concentrate on pre race prices first. Farclas best price before the off that I saw today was 8.0. I got 7.8.

 

And that’s all getting the best price that you can means really. Takes practice and you won’t always get best that has been available but you get a gold star for that when you do. Or a pat from yourself on the back! Measure against ISP. You must always aim to beat that. Worst possible price playing properly on Verdana was 8.5. ISP paid 6.5. Where did the other 2 points go?

 

When I worked for the NatWest bank in the late 70s, the Bank of England abolished the halfpenny from the mint and the bank reacted by erasing all half pences from account balances. What happened to all the half pences? Conservative estimate – around 20 million pounds worth. I don’t need to tell you. RDSP. Rounded down accounting. Bookmakers have it off to a fine art. 2 points off the price on Boxing Day!

Ronnie Biggs was an amateur by comparison (also a thug!). And he got caught!

 

Hope that has given you something to think about anyways.Apologies to all those who knew all that already! The game is always on between punter and bookmaker. The more we know, the better our chance to win. Never hurts to be reminded I always think. I am constantly reading the BOZmail golden rules so I don’t forget. That is why I leave them at the foot of this message every day!

 

BOZ   

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

2-35 KELSO

Still suffering a bit with LIM backs although very tempted to play the value on Castletown in this at 8/1 with only 2 and a bit lengths to find on Donna’s Diamond LTO. That was a good performance by Castletown who could prove a better chaser than was hurdler with time and getting 6 pounds here, it could be close on that long Kelso run in.

Donna’s Diamond was a classy hurdler however and could improve further over fences but might need to in order to give 6lb to Shades of Midnight. LTO hurdle form for him was against Paisley Park who won the Long Walk NTO and on a direct line through Agrapart, Shades of Midnight comes out a much better hurdler than Donna’s Diamond albeit without the wins nor the consistency either. Added to that, Shades of Midnight, despite being built for chasing, hasn’t entirely shone nor looked at home in the sphere so far. The tissue just popped up as I’m writing with Sandy Thomson’s horse 8/13 fav and Donna’s Diamond 15/8. Expected them much closer than that but the 6lb is very influential and the booking of Brian Hughes for Shades also tips me that way. I still think therefore that a back on Castletown is probably the race value at 6/1 but I wouldn’t expect him to beat Shades of Midnight in view of that LTO form that is so decisively franked. We may well be in the process of seeing the best of Shades of Midnight about to emerge so on balance my advised race read play is a lay on Donna’s Diamond although once more not one to go too overboard on. Nor would I want to lay at much longer than 2/1 on DD if they start piling into the Thomson horse because of that LTO form (see above!)

 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on DONNA’s DIAMOND

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 20.5/26 = 78.84% :   BACKS: 2/17 = 11.76%

 

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THE BOZmail NH horses To Follow list will arrive on this service on January 1st 2019 with its own starting bank and advices in line with encouraging a portfolio approach to successful punting.

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Those asking after The Boz’s article on THE IMPORTANCE OF BREAKING EVEN have hopefully received the published April 2017 version. I intend to have a look at that explanation of one of my psychological modus operandis and attach an updated and more relevant version for general consumption and absorption on this sheet in the day’s ahead.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 3:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

LEG 1:

REDDITCH to beat BARWELL at around 2/1 or just under – 0.25pt BACK

BARWELL-REDDITCH draw at around 3/1 – 0.25pt BACK

The reds back in the zone last two games and good winners on Boxing Day against top of the table opposition thanks to a brace from new temporary loan signing Harry White who has played at a much higher level than Southern League Central Division.

New goalkeeper also between the sticks for Redditch after the previous incumbent was guilty of starting and fuelling the losing run with his refusal to come for his crosses.

Barwell have home advantage and not quite the back number they would seem so I’m keen to play cautious as we start out on the acca again after wicked bad luck with the last one. What makes this a strong bet however is the sign that Redditch are back to benefiting from the half time team talk that was a constant of their winning run in November. That second half v Alvechurch was a resounding 2-0 plus.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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