BOZmail 29th DECEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

TUESDAY DECEMBER 29th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 124/180 = 68.88%  Backs : 36/115 = 31.30%

3-15 NEWBURY

This is a magnificent renewal of the Challow Hurdle and not a race in which to risk your shirt and definitely not your underpants! Our boy Braveman’sgame was so impressive LTO that he makes it to favourite in this despite question marks about his ability to act on the ground and his first real test in the big league whereas Star Gate and Does He Know have already won therein. Two negatives that would normally have me looking to oppose the fav and I won’t put anyone off trading this rather than betting it whether you back or lay in the first instance. My instinct is to back because he travelled so well here LTO on good ground and that was a slow gallop that posted a quick time so that hangs as proof of his speed up against potentially slower sorts. Nicholls is likely to have brought him on further and 9/4 is a working man’s price. I was expecting more 15/8 so we have value on our side.

I’ve watched his bumper behind Soaring Glory again from last year. That was run on soft ground and whilst the ground may have blunted his speed, he did seem to handle it and stayed on to the line well enough. The knee action is encouraging and whilst that Soaring Glory form hasn’t proved scintillating, it’s certainly up there and with the improvement he seemed to show in cantering in last time off a slow pace, I think he might be poised to battle through this.

Not putting anyone off the trade though which looks the wise way to play if the market yoyos. If there is anywhere he may lose it, it may be in that final half furlong of what is always a long run in at Newbury. If you get offered silly lay prices and the quality dangers are still all around, I wouldn’t be afraid to trade a bit back to protect our still fragile December score.

Recommendation:

0.075pt BACK on BRAVEMAN’SGAME (around 3.3 with the option to hedge in running if prices prove preferential and doubts about the ground look justified) 

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount – Entered for Wetherby (Dec 27)

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 19)

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar RoseEntered for  Cheltenham (Mar 19)

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line – Entered at Market Rasen (Dec 30)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Dusart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered at Wetherby (Dec 27)

Get Your Own -Entered for Market Rasen (Dec 30)

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Allart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 18)

Nube Negra

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY:

1-30 NEWBURY – YOUNG WOLF @ 10/1 -0.15pt BACK 

Get the best price that you can and hedge accordingly and/or when preferential odds are offered.

Another where the ground is a question mark and another hot race with dangers all around so not as confident a pick as others over the weekend. Last chance on the list if he doesn’t show here as his mark has risen now but there is suggestion he still has more improvement in him and he won’t want for stamina in the finish. Just that doubt about whether he will be able to keep up with the pace on the ground. Trainer/jockey booking doesn’t over inspire me either and all things considered, it is a take the early price which is still drifting as I write and content with a pre race profit and a tad to play the 1.1 and 1.01s with in the finish should he prove me wrong and run a competitive one. As I say, no shortage of stamina so the finish could be the best part of his race!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

19th:     -0.4375 (+0.9966) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 5.3

20th:     -0.278   (+0.7186) Lay @ 2.52 : Back @ 4.9

21st:     NON RUNNER

22nd:    -0.162   (+0.5566) Lays @ 2.9 & 2.52 : Backs @ 6.4 & 9.2

26th:     -0.253   (+0.3036) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 6.4

27th:    +0.147   (+0.4506) Back @ 2.5

28th:      NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +57.6941points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.8214 points (+12.8214 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 54.8332 points (+46.8332 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1885 points (-0.8115 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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