BOZmail – 29th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY FOUR:

THURSDAY AUGUST 29th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +9.7232 points

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8pm Wednesday evening UK time and no play yet on outside courts due to rain so day three is set to be seriously curtailed. BOZmail comes out with Thursday fare on it also but keep an eye now on schedule of play times as they will have to be seriously rearranged in the catch up. The Boz has to get this out though because of need to go to bed. Got to get up early to watch Serena in live time before catching my plane to Ireland!!

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

US OPEN SECOND ROUND MATCH:

Andrea Petkovic v Petra Kvitova

After a strong day two and some good trading, I’m moving into belt tightening mode again on Thursday as I’ll be travelling over to Ireland and organising the Tipperary paddock watch so no likely time for watching tennis. This may also be the last post for a week if the wifi problems in Ireland are bad so if you don’t hear you’ll know why and service will up again on September 5th for action on September 6th with tennis final and a return to the horses on the agenda. Likely that I will be posting from Ireland however so keep that eye on the inbox and enjoy watching the portfolio bet which is going ok as I write. Don’t forget to take your chance to hedge Serena when it occurs!!

Thursday’s LIM is similar to Wednesday’s in taking on a heavyweight at very short odds. Kvitova is 1.24 to beat the German Petkovic who is an old warhorse now and ranked a lowly 88. Hence the price. She has been top ten a couple of times in her career and can be an unplayable server on her day and these two have played ten times in the past with a 50-50 split score. That’s a very interesting back record as breaking it down, there were nine straight set wins one way or t’other before the most recent which Petkovic won in three. Kvitova has a 5-3 lead on her less preferred hardcourt surface whereas Petkovic is 1-0 on her preferred clay and likewise on Kvitova’s preferred grass! You wouldn’t have Kvitova at 1.24 based on that breakdown! 

Basically their games have been serve dominated as that is the main component of both’s game. Whosoever serves best and is more in the serving groove wins on the day. At A1 game level, both are fairly unplayable on serve. Obviously the wider picture brings in Kvitova as the class achiever – twice slam winner on grass & most notably improving her hard court record by getting to the OZ final this year. Since coming back from the assault trauma, Kvitova has shown a new maturity and poise both on court and off and is less the feisty competitor of old and more the statesmanlike ambassador now. Always a nice person with a competitive core of steel, she was a delight to watch in her youth but you always sought to lay her on hardcourt where she would still be top ten player but just gettable. Her movement isn’t so good on hardcourt. Feet can get stuck and her giraffe impersonation can start to look clunky on hard where it is graceful on grass. And the serve isn’t quite as unreturnable on hard. Not sure why that is.

I’d say ultimately, she has always been beatable on hardcourt on her off days where on grass she would be able to work a way out of them. On hardcourt, the errors and the more difficult movement can start to get to her if the opponent is playing well. She will occasionally down tools on hardcourt. Not in Muguruza’s class at that but similar nevertheless. She’ll mentally start to accept defeat much easier on this surface. As I say, when the opponent is firing.

That’s my explanation of why she doesn’t have a 20-2 back score v Petkovic (to use the Serena-Sharapova parallel) and because it is 5-5, I think we have a parallel 50-50 shot of landing this if Petkovic is on her A game. Current form favours Kvitova as the ranking shows and Petkovic is also perhaps now at 31, not the physical force she has been. Still wins on her day though and played well v Buzarnescu first round.

A possible without being the best LIM I ever put up. To small stake with small liability still in August profit protection mode.

Recommendation:

0.4pt LAY on PETRA KVITOVA v Petkovic (around 1.24 : no greater than 1.4) 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

Johanna Konta v Margarita Gasparyan

Day One finished not so bad despite the losses with 3/6 correct and much better on Day Two as I stand 4/4 with a good treble up if Suarez Navarro holds her nerve. Goerges saved match point and disproved my oldies are unreliable moan about

Kerber yesterday. Only one way to seriously make money backing tennis at the moment though. Trade the Ostapenko matches! Doesn’t matter who she plays or whether she is fav or not. Every match a rollercoaster. I only ever backed and laid Krunic throughout the match but it took some concentrating on and I earned my plus. Hope you enjoyed if you are getting into it. Has given me hope of a good end to August after all! 

Riske did me proud staying firm after getting outclassed first set. Muguruza then got all hardcourt brittle and chucked the mental towel in. Funny sort of champion she is.

Just seems not up for the fight half the time. Goerges could teach her some stuff. She seriously had to knuckle down today to win. Served her way to the final set tie break massacre.

So a bit more confidence as I attack day three with five outsiders I considered for LIM.

McNally is very exciting at 11.0 v Serena but will probably need the experience. Lin Zhu is big at 7.2 to beat Keys but ought really be outclassed.Peterson might beat Yastremska and if Van Uytvanck overcomes her dislike for hardcourt, she could be value v Qiang Wang but I’m changing tack slightly for day three. My daily fav treble is a banker double to start the final staggered acca off. See below.

And I won’t be posting any against the book trades from the above mentioned. I’ll be watching and enjoying with two of Tuesday’s still to do tonight. Gonna spend a day sitting on my winnings! Don’t let me put you off if you are still practising trading however and the above four could all be fun to minimum starting stakes.

I’m going all LIM disciplined however and picking just one of my fancied outsiders to play with. Konta v Gasparyan is the match up I know most about.

You’ll be thinking I have something against Konta which I don’t really. Have often done the patriotic rooting bit but do find her a tad one dimensional and occasionally brittle a la Muguruza. She oft disappoints at the tight end as well and had her moments of downtime first round before asserting the power serve which is at its best on hardcourt. Hard to oppose in that mode. Two reasons to take her on here though.

One is price. At 1.26, she is ultra short. Too short. Next to no liability at the modest stakes I’m playing at to keep August score tight. And she could win because Gasparyan does have perennial knee problems. And chronic ones too. Carried off in agony when beating Svitolina at Wimbledon you may remember. So she’s no good thing of a bet. Value however because in class terms she outstrips Konta. A seriously silky forehand that Konta can only dream of and a speed of cross courter that will have Jo leaden footed and quickly dispirited if the Russian brings her A game. There is an if because she hasn’t done it that often in her career so far. At 24, spent more time injured than playing and is thus learning at a slower rate than you’d like as well.

Better on hardcourt than grass however and if she brings that class of game she was playing against Svitolina here, she’ll wipe Konta out. So at the prices, gotta play. 

Recommendations:

0.5pt LAY on JOHANNA KONTA v Gasparyan (around 1.26 : no greater than 1.4)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

23rd:          -0.42 (+1.1425) Lay @1.44 : Back @ 5.0

24th:          NON RUNNER

25th:          +0.045 (+1.1875) Lay @ 1.89 : Backs @ 20.0 & 6.6

26th:           -0.268 (+0.9195) Lay @ 1.67

27th:           +0.294 (+1.2135) Lay @ 1.74

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 151/226 = 66.81% :   BACKS: 44/154 = 28.57%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: (LEGS 1 &2)

US OPEN WOMEN’s TENNIS 2nd ROUND MATCHES on WEDNESDAY:

Karolina MUCHOVA to beat Su-Wei HSIEH @ 1.77 

Petra MARTIC to beat Ana Bogdan @ 1.49

Combined odds double = 2.6373 : Recommended Stake = 0.5pt

Two bankers for Wednesday so a go to get the staggered acca deficit back and set us up for one last free bet staggered acca go in 2019 before I switch codes on the sheet for the Autumn and Winter.

Both of these have to win. Back them in a double. Both grade A. Muchova is the new Czech star who made QF at Wimbledon and is a hard court thumper out of the top drawer. Tricky as Hsieh is, she hadn’t ought to be able to live with Muchova who has a 1-0 back score on the surface already. Hsieh prefers grass. Bogdan is on the improve but way outranked by Martic who has found herself this year and become a reliable battler. Should be a class issue and prices are sound for both. Fingers and toes crossed. This goes down, I wave the 2019 white flag of staggered acca surrender! 

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA (laid at 6.4) 

0.25pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK at (backed at 200.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 180.0)

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF(backed at 85.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 55.0) 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN (backed at 67.0  – 0.25pt laid @30.0)

0.25pt BACK on DANIELLE COLLINS(backed at 250.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 210.0)

Gauff and Collins also battled through three set first round wins to keep portfolio intact and score me a 100% 8/8 on Day Two with one retired injured. Good day!

Gauff & Kenin have very winnable second round matches.Collins & Swiatek will need our support. Serena will need watching with finger on button v McNally.

Going to bed early tonight so I can be on the case before I set off for my plane!!

SECOND DAY FAV TREBLE:

Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Timea Babos @ 1.69 – RETIRED INJURED

Belinda Bencic to beat Mandy Minella @ 1.13 – WON

Julia Goerges to beat Natalie Vikhlyantseva @ 1.43 – WON

                         Composite odds around 2.7308 : Recommended Stake = 0.5pt -VOID

Different punters will have different outcomes on this one depending on bookmakers rules. Some will void the unfinished match and pay out on the double. Some will consider it a loser because a set was completed. Others void the whole bet. I got the latter without having checked my rules before I placed so slightly miffed but had temporarily forgotten the significance of this aspect of fixed odds tennis betting.

Don’t do much of it these days and remember why now! Trading on tennis Rules!

The bet has been recorded as void on the BOZmail stats. Hope you fared better.

US OPEN SECOND DAY VALUE AGAINST THE BOOK TRADES: 

Pauline Parmentier to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 3.05

  • backed @ 3.1 – (Parmentier: +0.525 : Pavlyuchenkova: -0.25)
  • 0.3pt hedged early first game @2.44 – (Parm: +0.093 : Pav: +0.05)
  • 0.1pt back after first set @ 10.0 – (Parm: +0.993 : Pav: -0.05)
  • 0.1pt hedged early second set @7.5 – (Parm: +0.343 : Pav: +0.05)
  • 0.1pt backed at 1-3 second set @ 15.0 – (Parm: +1.743 : Pav: -0.05)
  • 0.4pt hedged at 5-5 second set @ 3.2 – (Parm: + 0.863 : Pav: +0.35)
  • No further activity: P/L = +0.343

Sorana Cirstea to beat Kateryna Siniakova @ 4.0

  •  backed @ 4.0 – (Cirstea: +0.75 : Siniakova: -0.25)
  •  No further activity needed or possible.Late starter & Boz went to bed confident!
  •  P/L = +0.75

Alexandra Krunic to beat Jelena Ostapenko @ 2.88 (always trade an Ostapenko match!)

 – backed @ 3.0 – (Krunic: +0.5 : Ostapenko: -0.25) 

0.3pt hedged early first set @ 2.0 – (K: +0.2 : Ost: +0.05)

– 0.1pt backed again two games later @ 4.5 – (K: +0.55 : Ost -0.05)

0.2pt hedged in 7th game @ 2.0 – (K: +0.35 : Ost: +0.15)

0.1pt backed early in 2nd set @ 6.6 – (K: +0.91 : Ost: +0.05)

– 0.3pt hedged at 4-2 2nd set @ 2.2 – (K: +0.61 : Ost: +0.35)

– 0.1pt backed at 4-4 2nd set @ 7.0 – (K: +1.21 : Ost: +0.25)

0.05pt backed at 5-4 15-0 2nd set @ 19.0 – (K: +2.11 : Ost: +0.2)

– 0.3pt hedged at 5-5 2nd set @ 3.85 – (K: +1.255 : Ost: +0.5)

– 0.1pt backed at 6-5 2nd set @ 15.0 – (K: +2.655 : Ost: +0.4)

– 0.2pt hedged in 2nd set tie break @ 5.0 – (K: +1.855 : Ost: +0.6)

– 0.5pt hedged at 4-6 in tie break @ 2.42 – (K: +1.145 : Ost: +1.1)

No further activity: P/L = + 1.045

US OPEN FOURTH DAY VALUE AGAINST THE BOOK TRADES: 

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Alison Riske @ 2.62

0.25pt BACK start. Go green when presented and be ready to ping pong if the yoyo starts! 

You don’t need me to write any more about this. I don’t know whether I’ll get chance to play it but don’t you miss it if you can avoid doing so. We get to back Jelena as the outsider this time. Not my outsider on tennis class. In fact a screaming fav on that but she is such a loose cannon now that literally anything can happen. Riske is solid &hard and tough and on current form, a fair fav. But if Jelena comes in strutting and confident and backing herself after the buzz of the first round win, she could blow Riske out of the water. And Riske can crumble against the class barrage. More likely is that Jelena will hit a few screaming unreturnables and then lose her serve to love.

Final result could be anything. Traders paradise! Have fun!  

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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