BOZmail 29th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY AUGUST 29th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.6819 points (+2.6819 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.9372 points (+7.9372 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +9.0251 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +13.3127 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 48/62 = 77.41%  Backs : 8/30 = 26.66%

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LESS IS MORE

12-20 NEWMARKET

Not much joy from Silver Man whose price proved another William Hill red herring and performance in the race not much better. Also had to take a larger price on Never Learn than I wanted but it worked out ok in the end and we grind on. Putting the week back together and the month as good as we’ve been all year so positives must be celebrated! Saturday is a day off jumps again and I skip most of the day’s racing to spend time studying the US Open tennis draw published on Friday. Johanna Konta playing the Western Open semi final as I write and selected to meet only other Brit Heather Watson first round in the Open! As weird a tennis slam as there has been in years but a fascinating change from the horsey grind at last. Seems a million years ago when Sofia Kenin won her maiden Grand Slam in Melbourne in January. Looking forward to studying the form with the gals again. Much more anon in the fortnight ahead.

Meanwhile just this small LIM trade on the flat for Saturday. Gosden’s boy has lots of questions to answer in an Open race. First time on soft ground. Up in class and with penalty. Small lay for me but very much a trade play so hedge as soon as you get offered preferential odds.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on LOST IN SPACE (around 3.3 but take shortest price you can and hedge when appropriate as preferential odds get offered)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

23rd:    +0.196 (+1.5828) Lay @ 3.0

24th:     -0.65   (+0.9328) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 16.0

25th:    +0.4017 (+1.3345) Back @ 9.05

26th:    +0.196  (+1.5304) Back @ 12.82 : Lay @ 8.15 etc

27th:    +0.196  (+1.7266) Lay @ 1.7

28th:    +0.098  (+1.8246) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 26.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar 

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Perth (Aug 30)

Samsons Reach -Entered for Southwell (Aug 31)

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE FOR FRIDAY:

3-15 FONTWELL – ASHUTOR @ 6/4 – 0.15pt BACK – WON

Backed at 1.98: P/L = +0.144pts

Good horse. Did it easy. Stays on the list and brings our to follow to the cusp of doubling bank for the year. That would be an on target going in to the first tennis trades of the annual cycle. Except that we are six rather than three months in!

Even so. The to follow has been the star performer so far this year. Let’s see if the tennis content can enhance that.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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