BOZmail – 29th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY APRIL 29th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.9362 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2968 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

US HORSES TO FOLLOW on WEDNESDAY(29th):

19-45 Will Rogers Downs – Staunch Elaborator

My final tip and play for Crisis Corner and the month of April. The general conclusion was that US racing needs much greater knowledge,research and investigation than I have time or inclination for long term and so will not be promoted in my tipping areas

on the BOZmail in future despite the gap that has been left by the loss of the tennis slam betting in 2020.

I did however start my to follow list from the limited fare we had betting access to during lockdown and my sole entrant runs in this maiden mile at Will Rogers Downs

and so we test whether or not my ability to spot a good one remains intact and of any worth on the US all weather tracks.

Staunch Elaborator ran encouragingly for us in his sprints, noted finishing well both times, to suggest the mile was going to be his distance. He is upped in class as well for this mile debut but is a big price again accordingly and the Kingmambo breeding on his dam’s side does bode well for coping with the step up in class as well as distance. Kingmambo was a quality miler.

Jockey booking is interesting as an inexperienced youngster takes the ride over Obed Sanchez who is redeployed to Do You Bileve who is also a big price. That may be significant and I want him onside in my play. The lay on Bewitchy is my ploy for paying for the bet on Staunch Elaborator and also making a dent in the month’s loss should Wild Prospect beat him as I predict. So a fiver lay proposed on Bewitchy and a quid on our boy not with any huge confidence or expectation. Just to see whether I learned anything during this enforced switch to US racing.   

Recommendation:

£5 LAY on BEWITCHY

£1 BACK on STAUNCH ELABORATOR

Take the best prices you can get.

The Boz’s April US  Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

1st:  -£4-85  (-£4-85) Lay @ 2.54 : Back @ 44.0

2nd:  NO BET

3rd: +£0-96  (-£3-89) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 8.7

4th: – £2-20  (-£6-09) Lay @ 1.6 : Back @ 14.0

5th: +£0-48  (-£5-61) Lay @ 2.16 : Back @ 5.15

6th: -£2-88   (-£8-49) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 13.0

7th: +1-45    (-£7-04) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 12.0

8th:  +0.98   (-£6-06) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 25.0

9th-12th: NO PLAY DUE TO ILLNESS

13th: +1-96 (-£4-10) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 20.0

14th: – 1-96 (-£6-06) Lay @ 1.48 : Back @ 7.2

15th: -3.00 (-£9-06) Lay @ 2.5

16th: NO BET

17th:  +0.98 (-£8-08) Lay@ 3.75 : Back @ 70.0

18th:  -3.25  (-£11-33) Lay@ 1.7 : Back @ 7.6

19th:  +1.96 (-£9-37) Lay @ 3.9

20th:  +1.96 (-£7-41) Lay @ 2.3

21st:  -3.92 (-£11-33) Lay @ 2.96

22nd: NO BET

23rd-28th: NO BET

Crisis Corner LIM Strike Rates: Lays 15/25 = 60% : Backs 0/13 = 0%

Good Luck with your bets

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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