BOZmail – 28thMAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY MAY 28th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

3-00 BRIGHTON

Polona Hercog fought back nicely in the tennis Monday morning and knocked out a seed and two of our three 999/1 shots survive the first round and give us a squeak at a run in the tournament. Hercog holding herself together well and can be quietly fancied again next round against a bruising Yank who isn’t the greatest on clay. I’ve managed two hedges now to make the ROF look healthier in advance of Halep’s start and remember if you are playing and haven’t done much of this before that in play hedging on the favs in particular is a recommended tactic if and when they go behind or lose a serve in a match. At this stage, I would happily take Halep back at half stake 6.6 or 7.0 if I get offered it and if she should have a real blip, don’t be afraid to green out with so much plus potential still in the portfolio.

As for the horses, well I had the right idea Monday and the Lake District deluge did do its stuff for us (not that Cartmel is quite in the Lake District – 6 miles shy of Newby Bridge at the south tip of Windermere) but the soft ground horses to be with were Demi Sang and even better Al Co in the Grand Veterans – both of which I found on track along with the forecasts in the two races after ours. When ground changes mid meet as it often does at Cartmel well worth laying the favs who have been priced on previous ground form and backing all with soft ground form. I got 40/1 on the exchanges re Al Co and there were a few BOZmailers alongside me to take advantage. Its a service I always offer don’t forget for those who want make the trek. Let me know you are coming in advance and we’ll arrange a meeting place!The Paddock read and local track knowledge is something that really pays at Cartmel

and no excuses anyone who didn’t take it up as I did offer a few weeks back. I’ll be there again Wednesday evening if you wanna let me know you’re coming and I’ll tip some winks. Always easier picking winners there on track rather than off. Weather and ground play a big part.Forecast for Wednesday is a bit more rain yet.

On to Tuesday and the run up to end of tough month for the BOZmail and the few days off I’ll be taking at the start of June (wife’s 60th birthday). Not sure exact dates of cessation yet but I’ll put up Derby tip in advance and maybe some more insight runnings in play at the tennis.

Tuesday’s LIM is a small play at Brighton for all those who feel isolated and inferior(!) as we take on Gosden’s Franz Kafka (famous of course for The metamorphosis where Gregor wakes up as a puke inducing bug widely seen as an allegory for Kafka’s own feelings of isolation and inferiority. Who said horse racing wasn’t for intellectuals!!) who looks second best in this to me behind Haggas’ Current Option who is perhaps also more likely to be suited to course and any rain that falls. The booking of the redoubtable Oisin Murphy further tempts me to lay the odds on inferiority horse!

Recommendation:

0.4pt LAY on FRANZ KAFKA (around 1.96: no greater than 2.2)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0  

21st:   -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66

22nd:  +0.294 (+0.522) Lay @ 2.4   

23rd:   +0.48 (+1.002) BACK @ 1.96

24th:    -0.215 (+0.787) Lay @ 1.86  

25th:    +0.196(+0.983) Lay @ 2.76

26th:    -0.585 (+0.398) Lay @ 1.97 : BACK @ 3.0

27th:    +0.094(+0.492) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 21.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 107/157 = 68.15% :   BACKS: 27/101 = 26.73%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay – Entered at Worcester (June 1)

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Derby (June 1), King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

PLAYER                PRICE TAKEN HEDGED AT      CURRENT P/L

Simona HALEP1pt LAY@5.6
-5.0
ANISIMOVA0.1pt BACK@120.0
+12.6
QIANG WANG0.1pt BACK @340.0
+34.6
Iga SWIATEK0.1pt BACK @151.0
+15.7
VAN UYTVANCK0.1pt BACK @1000ELIMINATED
Polona HERCOG0.1pt BACK @10000.1pt LAY @310.0+69.5
LauraSIEGEMUND0.1pt BACK @10000.1pt LAY @410.0+59.5
ROF

+0.6
Azarenka (3rd Rd)






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