BOZmail – 28th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 28th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

Right idea wrong result on Friday and no complaints that The Princess Royal’s horse was better suited on the day and those that know about my what’s in a name approach to horserace tipping and betting will have seen the significance in the 1-2 result! If you don’t know about it, I’m about to publish one of my secrets in next month’s Betting Insiders magazine and will also reproduce the article on here for those interested.

The other point about yesterday’s fare of course was that the Boz got his race read more or less right and the market either agreed with him or was influenced by him (or both) so you had to move quick to get both lay and back prices as recommended. Both were still available overnight but disappeared in the day on Friday and those not yet used to the fact,know that LIM does require you to do some work on price acquisition. These are publically available tips so do influence markets and very often, especially at this time of year, will do so heavily. Part of my methodology is to pick a race where I perceive tissue oddsmakers have got it wrong as they did making Stream Lady fav on Friday and Zara Hope the no hope outsider but the market will adapt in the 18 or so hours it gets between when I publish and the race runs. You need to be aware that moving quick – whilst certainly not always the case – is often required.

With staggered staking as my main recommendation if you have time to watch markets develop. And mainly by avoiding SP and BSP (especially on lays) if you don’t. Always take your price. Some feel the need to proof my service via the use of SP and BSP and of course I accept that as a fair middle ground for those not actually playing it. Playing it will mean all sorts of different scores for all those involved based on personal achievement. I’ve said before that tables have been published in the BOZmails of the past as all members published their scores daily as I do on here.

The Boz never came top in all those years! But I was often top ten. I do work hard at it but mainly I save my primary exertion for making sure the race we are playing in is the right one.

And finally a reminder if you haven’t seen it before is that I play pretty much exclusively these days on Betdaq for all my laying ever since they started charging just 2% commission across the board. Their markets are often less developed than Betfair ones but almost always reflective of each other prices wise. Bookmakers regularly trade on both so the prices are often in tandem as you find in any high street bookmaker or ring environment. Up to you whether you pay the greater commission at betfair. I used to and still do on occasion. My backs I am more fluid about. I prefer them at commission free fixed odds sites when I can get them. Using staggered staking, I’m often taking the large % of my published cumulative price there whilst always watching them on exchanges too and availing myself of better odds there when out of synch with fixed odds most especially on the longest priced selections. Very rare these days that any one play is made in just one place!

That’s the lot of work involved in getting the best price that I allude to in BOZmail rule 4. I know a lot of you know and practice that yourselves and that those who have time constraints accept that your scores may not reflect that fact. Just thought I’d reiterate it in light of some proofing going on at the moment that draws attention to all that. Part of The BOZmail. Up front and honest. I point you in the direction and make considered recommendations. What happens from there is down to you. The scores published here at the moment are just my scores. Something to compare to how you are doing yourself. That’s their purpose.

And so on to Saturday’s LIM and the third last day of September where I still strive to go out with a winner! No attempt to back here though and a simple lay on Holy Kingdom who looks the lesser of the front two in what should be a two horse race. You never know though hence the lay rather than backing Swift Wings who has all the profile and looks the more likely to handle surface and step up in distance. For a Gosden yard that is still in blistering form (43% winners in past fortnight with Havlin having ridden 8 of them). Holy Kingdom does have the future champion jockey’s claim and a 3lb better rating that could be argued to make him 6lb well in. But has disappointed last couple of outings,doesn’t convince he will like extra disatnce, wouldn’t have the class of Gosden’s on breeding and has run on the surface before without suggesting he liked it.

Not a strong play again with it being cautious end of September fare and very much a BOZmail rule number one again on another September Saturday that has seen St Leger,Ayr Gold Cup and now the Cambridgeshire. Betting on these days gives me the shivers!  although I will be playing modestly as a trade on Mum’s Tipple in the middle park ( see below). 

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on HOLY KINGDOM (around 2.0 : no greater than 2.3)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

18th:    -0.385 (-1.1725) Lay @ 2.14 : Back @ 28.0

19th:    +1.595 (+0.4225) Lay @ 2.28 : Back @ 10.0

20th:    +0.245 (+0.6675) Lay @ 2.38

21st:     +0.527(+1.1945) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 4.8

22nd:    -0.2 (+0.9945) Back @ 4.0

23rd:     NO PLAY DAY

24th:     -0.392 (+0.6025) Lay @ 2.96

25th:     +0.245(+0.8475) Lay @ 3.05

26th:      -0.1 (+0.7475) Back @ 9.6

27th:      +0.047(+0.7945) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 5.9

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 164/250 = 65.6% :   BACKS: 48/170 = 28.23%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.96 points. 

Will shout as and when new starter emerges.      

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered for Musselburgh (Sep 29)

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 12)

HORSE TO TRADE/FOLLOW on SATURDAY:

3-00 NEWMARKET – MUM’S TIPPLE @ 11/4 – 0.1pt BACK

This is potentially a very hot race with Earthlight,Monarch of Egypt and Threat all posing problems on paper for our upped in class Hannon filly who famously did a dump at the start LTO at York before running like it really did have a rocket up its arse! Watch out for that again but in general a very low key and cautious play for me on such a day with such weather around and with MT’s price not really reflecting its chance in my book. Earthlight hasn’t come over for her health, Ryan Moore defects to the visiting O’Brien horse and the value lies each way in Threat who humbled our Lord of the Lodge LTO. Top form that. Then there’s the rain that belted down at Haydock and Worcester on Friday. It’s around and may easily skew this race’s form. So trade on what you see. Get best price before the off and hedge out when appropriate. Unless you see her dumping at the start again and/or she is ten lengths ahead again with a furlong to go!! 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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