BOZmail 28th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 28th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +26.7174 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.3621 points (+5.3621 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 30.3408 points (+22.3408 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 81/114 = 71.05%  Backs : 21/70 = 30%

4-10 NEWTON ABBOT

There is a potential double lay on here as both Scardura and Pingshou both have jumping issues to deal with. Scardura will win the race doing handstands I fancy if he puts a clear round in as that form behind Longhouse Sale at Stratford in front of Beat The Judge and Leapaway is very good form. He may well have beaten the Skelton diva as well if he’d jumped better at the last. Did the same again at the first NTO at Perth and unseated Robbie Dunne who is replaced by STD this time around. So long as he doesn’t get into a last fence duel with Pingshou, I’d trust STD to bring this one in but that horse jump record is a worry as he fell in his point to point as well. He is only a novice against seasoned handicappers here and although the talent is there, the value is not. At 2/1, I want him as LIM cover only and I’ll look in the rags to try and find a value winner. Pingshou would be the class on his hurdle form. Won a grade one at Aintree but he has always struggled with chasing, blundering pretty much every race and falling the last twice. Threw a race away here at the Abbot memorably with a dreadful jump and there is thus no value in his price either and he is my solid lay of the day. Couldn’t be having him until he shows a clear round and although he has had a wind op (does that help with jumping? Yeh, maybe) he has two other negatives in time off the course and a likely need for further. Breeding does not suggest a two mile chaser.

The trouble with the rags is that whilst all can be fancied a little as better jumpers, all have handicap marks to over come and that puts me off Monsieur D’Arque as a back despite his turning out again within the week after a decent run behind Templepark at Warwick LTO. That could be good enough to win. The time was good. Just the value that puts me off him. Too short.

Master Work is reliable but also not on a winning mark and the value for me is King Alfonso who also soured his chance at Fontwell LTO with a terrible jump but is generally reliable and isn’t on too bad a mark. His Cartmel form might be good enough but probably only if others falter.

On balance, decided to keep my main sheckels for the tennis and play simple lay on Pingshou in this.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on PINGSHOU (around 3.3)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1         (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

22nd: NON RUNNER

23rd: NO BET

24th: +0.147 (+0.6671) Lay @ 3.0

25th: +0.098 (+0.7651) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 55.0

26th:  -0.15   (+0.6151) Back @ 2.0

27th: NO BET

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW:

You won’t be surprised to hear that 2020 at Roland Garros is going to be a very strange year. 1000 crowd allowed in each day and taking place in September/October rather than the usual May/June with all that implies in the way of a damp and moist clay surface rather than the more normal baking hot underfoot conditions. “ The courts feel very heavy “ says screaming hot favourite Simona Halep who sidestepped Flushing Meadows on health grounds and is met with similar here as three of her main opponents for current No.1 player in the world – Bianca Andrescu, Naomi Osaka & defending champion Ashleigh Barty are all absent.

It is impossible to know which way it will go in terms of suiting the normal strong clay players or not. Suiting the class player or not. There is a perception in the tennis world that the French Open does not favour betting outsiders and indeed it has only been won twice since the second world war by players outside the top 20.Francesca Schiavone in 2010 and Jelena Ostapenko in 2017. The BOZ tipped both. Schiavone before the tournament began. I do consider it a tournament for outsiders for whilst only two winners in that time, countless outsiders have made final. Playing on clay catches a lot of players out. It really is a different game on the surface. Maria Sharapova exemplified that. She won here twice but it took her over ten years to adapt her game to prevail on the surface. Current re-rising star Victoria Azarenka – twice a slam champ – traditionally plays abysmally here. Likewise Naomi Osaka who has decided to sit it out rather than attempt to regain her world number one status after the sterling win in the US.

To say it is a quirky surface normally is an understatement. The moon ball and the drop shot work here. Schiavone won by adopting the grass player’s serve and volley into her game. She’d never used it in her singles play before nor since but memorably totally undid Samantha Stosur with it in the 2010 final. Playing on clay is usually a case of baseline rallies. But Ostapenko also subverted that by playing her grass game against Halep in the 2017 final. A match I’ll never forget. She has struggled to regain that form ever since but she is back here for 2020 and that’s good news for trading in play on the tennis fans. She is the queen of the yoyo game. I shall be trading every one of her efforts. There is also her potential successor too. Nineteen year old Pole Iga Swiatek who made last 16 in 2019 and is a similar head case! She has a very tough first round match against last year’s finalist (another outsider to make it to the last two) Marketa Vondrousova. That might be a mouthwatering classic.

Much to enjoy. My betting strategy for the event is unsurprisingly a case of cautious wait and see. Need to watch and see the first two rounds to try and assess which way it may go. A bloodbath for the seeds is possible. But the tennis scholars are correct in stating that class normally outs at The Garros same as everywhere. Halep could easily cakewalk it coming in on the back of a 14 match winning streak and titles in both Prague and Rome warm ups. At 3.95, she is very short and the normal lay in the portfolio approach but I’ll delay that a round or two to see what I think when I see how she copes with that ‘heavy court’ aspect. Might nullify her advantage. Might not. Serena is a long 14.5. She has won here but it is far from her ideal surface. Will she like the damp clay? You’d have thought not. She will be a lay somewhere along the way I’d have thought.  

First round however is sticking to the back score system which has come up with three bankers – none of whom look certs but make for a fascinatingly priced treble.

Heather Watson’s inclusion is a serious surprise and that 5.5 on her to win one game as opposed to the 3.95 on Halep to win seven could be interesting! We shall see.

I’ll follow the value as always. And enjoy trading the yoyo that Jelena almost always provides. She is 1.29 to beat Madison Brengle which is a hilarious price really. Sure, on her 2017 form here and of course she can beat the middle rankers in straight sets when her game and head are totally in the zone, but how many times have we seen that in the past two years? And when she won here in 2017 every match but one was a three setter. She came back from a set down in four. That’s how it is with her. And in the warm up, she lost to Hibino which would suggest she is far from her in the zone self. Marion Bartoli is coaching her now. Another of my favourites from the past and another out of the box head case who can win when it all falls right. I can’t wait for things to get underway on Sunday. A rollercoaster ride awaits. Follow the value as always and enjoy!! 

FIRST ROUND BETS @ ROLAND GARROS

Bankers:

Monica Puig to beat Sara Errani @ 2.32

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.67

Heather Watson to beat Fiona Ferro @ 5.5

How best to bet the above? Singles occurs as two winners from three will return as profit but they are identified system bankers so the treble has to be contemplated I think. Doubles likewise. It centres around the fact that Heather Watson has twice bested young French wannabe Fiona Ferro but is 5.5 because of her current health and form. Not been doing well. She is a feisty fighter though when she wants to be and you may remember that Wimbledon encounter when she had a top of her game Serena seriously on the ropes. So it is a maybe if she wants it and her game holds up. I leave her in the mix. The other two are no more certain. Errani is an ex-finalist and an absolute clay specialist who has never been able to make any ground against those that can play through her. Puig is one of those and stands 4-0 on their back score. But this is women’s tennis! The value might lie with Errani (not now prices have changed – Puig was originally 1.66) who has qualified to play from a lowly current ranking and sure knows how to manipulate these courts. Damp clay might suit her. More fascinating stuff in Kuznetsova v Pavlyuchenkova in the battle of the old Russian war horses. 6-3 to the past champion but Pavly does know how to beat her too. Value lies there with the outsider too. But these are system bankers and past prevalence in the head to heads does have a 75% success rate in women’s and men’s tennis. It implies they know how to impose the superior game and reliable in general for betting purpose. I wouldn’t put anyone off trading instead mind! These are not three matches to have your mortgage on!

I am playing fixed odds doubles and trebles mainly because of Heather’s presence.

I’d like to see her bring home the odds. May also back the singles as trades however. That’s how fascinating the French Open can be!

3 x 0.05pt WIN DOUBLES – 1 x 0.05pt WIN TREBLE . Total Spend = 0.2pts 

First round trades or value bets against the book:

0.1pt BACK Shaui Zhang to beat Madison Keys @ 3.2

0.1pt BACK Misaki Doi to beat Petra Martic @ 6.2

0.1pt BACK Jessica Pegula to beat Aryna Sabalenka @ 3.05

0.1pt BACK Daria Gavrilova to beat Dayana Yastremska @ 4.6

1 pt LAY Jelena Ostapenko v Madison Brengle @ 1.3   

The lay on Ostapenko is the nap. Those yoyo trade games where you back each player as she holds the dominance and switch as it changes each time during the match are where the real profits in tennis betting (any betting?) can be made. Ostapenko’s price is very short so no huge liability or loss if she does play one of her rare straight set dominant matches. Brengle is not a clay surface player so that is a maybe. She comes in good form from the US however and won’t need to do much to set the Ostapenko collywobbles a quivering!

Of the others, I love the way the terrier that is Misaki Doi plays. No-one better at court coverage and damp clay might suit her. She took a set off Osaka at Flushing Meadows you’ll remember. Martic might play through but is also a hot and cold performer who can quickly get into the doldrums about her game when being challenged. The Martic v Ostapenko match at 2019 Edgbaston was the yoyo match of all time! Doi is a value price at 6.0.

Keys isn’t a clay player nor Sabalenka either although both could serve to victory on their day. Gavrilova comes back from a long absence and is a similar player to Doi. All low groundstrokes and leg speed. Might upset the emerging class of Yastremska.

There is betting value in all five of the above and distinct potential for yoyo trading possibility also.

Outrights Portfolio:

0.1pt BACK Patricia Maria Tig @ 450.0   

That’s my stab at a longshot outright winner before the tournament begins. And it is a stab. I shall develop the portfolio more as we go on. The player in question is very left field but a recent mother and won her first WTA title in the run up. Absolute clay courter who plays sublime drop shot spin and moonball tennis. Could easily be played through by the power brigade but my idea – without knowing – of someone whom the seriously damp courts might suit. I’m expecting to see some slow tennis from what they are saying and she may be a master of that. Current form is good and the motherhood bit might be a mental inspirer. It has worked for Azarenka and Serena too. If she wins 2020 Roland Garros, I shall claim it as my greatest tip ever!

There won’t be another tipster in the world proposing her I fancy. Just as there wasn’t when Schiavone won! Tig’s draw looks ok. First game she can win and then some sticky young clay courters whom she may or may not out think. Then Muguruza and Sabalenka in the top half of her quarter. Will need her guile against them. But we’ll see. It is a hunch and once every five years or so, one of these comes off!!

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting too remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required here!

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River – Entered at Ffos Las (Oct 1)

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered at Ffos Las (Oct 1) & Hexham (Oct 2)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press – Entered at Sedgefield (Sep 29)

Samsons Reach – Entered at Bangor (Sep 29) 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly – Entered at Warwick (Oct 1) & Hexham (Oct 2)

The Butcher Said – Entered at Bangor (Sep 29)

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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