BOZmail – 28th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY OCTOBER 28th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.9887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.236 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-10 AYR

The Old Roan became one of those farcical semi flat races due to the low sun which played right against Frodon’s chance but the weight might have done for him anyways as it turned out and the race fitness of Forest Bihan came to my rescue. Well done if you followed the early value on him at 9/1 and no spitting the dummy out today. Were it not for the farcical lack of fences, he might have made my to follow for that but he still hung his head and looked monkeyish and I might just thank him for downing Kalashnikov and move on to the last few days of October. After that eight day winning run, it has become a bit of a struggle last three days and head down now to ensure we get out of October with a decent plus after the bun fight that was end of August and September.

Jumps season starting to get into gear now and a clutch of to follow entries for the coming week and I’ll be looking to push on with my to follow trading points score over the next few weeks upping my stakes a tad and seeking to optimize some profit re-investment as we go into the final phase of this BOZmail cycle. Early and late NH season my optimum preferred time for so doing.

Starting with a Beginners Chase at Wexford in Ireland on what will be a busy Monday for us as I go trade win there whilst the LIM travels to Scotland and this Novice Handicap Chase at Ayr where Nicky Richards seconditis horse Chateau Robin looks a fav to take on in the testing ground. He’d like it heavier really according to the formbook and has trouble quickening on soft. Dangers all around him including other chase experience horse Asum who is pretty much alongside on paper whilst two chase debutantes are sure to be in the mix with Gordon Elliot’s Three is Company likely to attract support under an eyecatching ride from the champ whilst my sneaky fancy is for James Ewart’s Ettila de Sivola who is first time after a wind op, from a stable with high in running form (67%) and best in the ground on the book. Not a massive play nor an especially confident one but an interesting play in a day of two races to work on (see below).

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on CHATEAU ROBIN (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.1)

0.1pt BACK on ETTILA DE SIVOLA (around 5.0)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 180/274 = 65.69% :   BACKS: 52/186 = 27.95%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

22nd:  +0.196 (+2.962) Lay @ 1.8

23rd:   +0.146 (+3.108) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 4.2

24th:   +0.196 (+3.304) Lay @ 4.3

25th:   -0.092 (+3.212) Lays @ 1.96 & 2.36 : Back @ 15.0

26th:   -0.18 (+3.032) Lay @ 2.2

27th:   +0.094 (+3.126) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 4.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi Entered for Wetherby (Nov 2)

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 1)

Kaizer 

Raya Time – Entered for Wexford (Oct 28)

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra – Entered for Fakenham (Oct 30)

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus – Entered for Stratford (Oct 31) & Uttoxeter (Nov 1)

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou – Entered for Chepstow (Oct 29)

Thyme Hill

Nordano – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 1)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa

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NH TO FOLLOW HORSE AT WEXFORD:

3-45 RAYA TIME @ 9/2 – 0.5pt BACK

A short price Elliot fav up against him on Chase debut but this is a horse who really caught my eye winning its maiden hurdle three weeks ago in emphatic fashion and looking every bit like a typical de Bromhead recruit to chasing. Henry is the master and I expect a classy ride from Rachel. With the Elliot stable under a mini cloud %s wise,I think I shall delay my hedge back until I’ve seen a bit of how the race is shaping and Raya Time is jumping. That’s unless I get offered whopping shorter odds before the off. Might be keen to let this run if it jumps as well as I think it will. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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