BOZmail 28th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 28th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +37.4951 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.8308 points (+7.8308 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 39.0498 points (+31.0498 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7635 points (-0.2365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 98/135 = 72.59%  Backs : 25/83 = 30.12%

3-40 TAUNTON

The winning streak ends not with a sloppy one as such but a reflection of the thinness of choice again perhaps and sort of same again for Wednesday where I rule out both Fakenham qualifiers and settle for this semi qualifier as the best we can manage. Can happen this time of year and this week does look of that ilk. So conservative staking once more.

I wouldn’t want to be backing Bathiva at 5/4 so that does give us one to aim at albeit that the move to the Fergal O’Brien yard looks a possible positive.LTO form has also been franked but in a lower grade race and I can find negatives for this one enough to consider opposing. The improved form of the LTO run was gained on soft ground but likely to be quicker at Taunton on Wednesday more likely to suit second favourite and main danger Court Royale who is on a reasonable mark. Bathiva must also shoulder a 10lb penalty for that win last time and although achieved decisively, not without a pretty serious blunder at the last that would be a worry to his jumping prowess. Had made errors on his debut race before at the business end of the race.

New stable might have addressed that. Might not. As I say, wouldn’t want to back at 5/4.

Despite larger field, LIM cover is a bit thin but Romanor could be given a chance on old form. Court Royale however is my idea of a winner so I play modestly in that direction seeking some decent backs still really. Despite the winning streak, this month hasn’t really been throwing up the winners!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BATHIVA (around 2.3)

0.1pt BACK on COURT ROYALE (around 5.5)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18 (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54 (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1 (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

22nd: +0.2154 (+2.0061) Lay @ 3.6

23rd: NO BET

24th:  +0.049  (+2.0551) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 5.5

25th: NO BET

26th:  +0.2156 (+2.2707) Lays @ 1.7 & 3.8 : Back @ 10.5

27th:   -0.194   (+2.0767) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 9.2

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Oct 29)

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

Calum Gilhooly – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Oct 29)

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Oct 30)

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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